2021 predictions: American League East
Yes, Snell and Morton are gone, but our computer (somehow) likes the Rays again
Nobody knows what the 2021 season is going to look like.
The free-agent market has moved at a glacial pace. Trading activity has been virtually nonexistent. The rules for the coming year haven’t been finalized — will the National League use the DH? — and the starting date for spring training hasn’t been solidly confirmed.
It’s a fool’s errand to predict 2021’s standings in the midst of such unprecedented uncertainty. So let’s have at it.
I have developed a computer program that compares each team’s record during the past three seasons (2018-2020) against the corresponding marks for every club that played during the era of free agency, which began in 1976.
The idea is to find parallels from the past that might offer hints about the future.
The current Tampa Bay Rays, for example, are remarkably similar to the Philadelphia Phillies of slightly more than a decade ago. Consider the Rays’ recent record, including wins, losses, winning percentage, and team score:
2018: 90-72, .556, TS 56.087
2019: 96-66, .593, TS 60.049
2020: 40-20, .667, TS 77.699
All three of those Tampa Bay clubs were strong, of course, but what’s especially noteworthy is that their trend was steadily upward, culminating in an American League title in 2020. The same pattern held true for the Phillies a dozen years earlier:
2006: 85-77, .525, TS 56.366
2007: 89-73, .549, TS 61.939
2008: 92-70, .568, TS 78.344
Philadelphia’s winning percentages weren’t as impressive as those for the Rays, but the team scores for the two clubs were virtually identical. Keep in mind that TS is based on more than a club’s regular-season record. It also takes into account a team’s offensive and defensive qualities and its postseason performance, making it a better measure of overall excellence.
My assumption is that we can learn something about the current Rays — or any other club — by studying what subsequently happened to their close matches from the past. Let’s start by examining the American League East. Here are the 2020 divisional standings, with each club followed by its win-loss record and its doppelganger from the free-agency era:
Rays, 40-20, Phillies 2008 (92-70, TS 78.344)
Yankees, 33-27, Red Sox 1979 (91-69, TS 59.765)
Blue Jays, 32-28, Rangers 1989 (83-79, TS 47.056)
Orioles, 25-35, Marlins 2000 (79-82, TS 38.984)
Red Sox, 24-36, Brewers 1984 (67-94, TS 23.864)
My formula matched each club against the three-year records of 1,198 teams since 1976. (A couple of important notes: Expansion teams obviously couldn’t be added to this mix until they played three seasons. And I cut off all comparisons after 2018, so that every club would have at least two years of future data.)
The Rays have been testing the patience of their fans — and presumably weakening their pitching staff — by trading Blake Snell to the Padres and allowing Charlie Morton to move to the Braves as a free agent. But that doesn’t matter to my formula, which blithely assumes (from its historical perspective) that Tampa Bay’s brain trust knows what it’s doing.
I identified the five closest matches from the past for each current club, then averaged their records for the following three seasons. I gave the strongest weight to the closest match, then added the others in descending magnitude.
These were the top five matches for Tampa Bay’s 2020 squad, followed by their records in the immediate and subsequent years:
Phillies, 92-70 in 2008, 93-69 in 2009
Dodgers, 63-47 in 1981, 88-74 in 1982
Orioles, 102-57 in 1979, 100-62 in 1980
Expos, 74-40 in 1994, 66-78 in 1995
Dodgers, 98-64 in 1977, 95-67 in 1978
These mirror images weren’t all successful — the Expos collapsed after their miraculous performance during 1994’s truncated schedule — but they generally did well as they stepped into the future. My formula uses their records to predict that the Rays will go 91-71 in 2021 and again win the AL East. Here are the predicted standings for the season ahead:
Rays, 91-71
Yankees, 85-77
Blue Jays, 82-80
Red Sox, 78-84
Orioles, 73-89
Not much different from 2020, except that the Red Sox and Orioles flip places. But that doesn’t mean better times are coming for Boston, as we shall see.
I ran the standings three years ahead, based on the records for each club’s five matches in the corresponding seasons (such as the records of the Phillies in 2009, 2010, and 2011 in the case of Tampa Bay).
Winning percentages tend to migrate toward .500 as we drift farther into the future. Yet the computer still remains confident in the Rays. It shows Tampa Bay winning the division again in 2022, with the Red Sox plummeting back to last place:
Rays, 92-70
Yankees, 90-72
Blue Jays, 79-83
Orioles, 75-87
Red Sox, 73-89
And let’s wander one step further into the fuzzy future. The projected standings for 2023 show the Orioles vaulting into second place, the Blue Jays tumbling into last, and the Rays improbably grabbing yet another divisional crown:
Rays, 90-72
Orioles, 86-76
Yankees, 83-79
Red Sox, 81-81
Blue Jays, 80-82
How accurate is my prediction system? I don’t know. I agree with most of you that Tampa Bay is unlikely to dominate the division in the years ahead; the Rays have to return to earth sometime. But the future often repeats itself. And if it does, we easily could see standings similar to those above.
I promise to return at the end of the 2021 season to check my accuracy rate, no matter how embarrassing it might be. Below, in the meantime, is my exclusive rundown of the American League East:
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Baltimore Orioles
2020 record: 25-35
2020 TS: 37.071; TS rank: 21 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Marlins 2000 (79-82, TS 38.984); 2. Phillies 1998 (75-87, TS 36.401); 3. Mariners 1982 (76-86, TS 36.616); 4. Royals 2011 (71-91, TS 35.600); 5. Phillies 1990 (77-85, TS 34.789)
What happened to top matches: The Marlins tightened their play in the two years subsequent to 2000, though their record didn’t improve. But the third year was the charm, culminating with a World Series title in Miami. The Phillies also suffered two more sub-.500 seasons after 1998, then zipped up to 86 wins in 2001.
2021 prediction: 73-89, TS 34.798 (26 of 30)
2022 prediction: 75-87, TS 35.519 (26 of 30)
2023 prediction: 86-76, TS 58.105 (4 of 30)
Boston Red Sox
2020 record: 24-36
2020 TS: 26.276; TS rank: 27 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Brewers 1984 (67-94, TS 23.864); 2. Phillies 2013 (73-89, TS 27.696); 3. Astros 2007 (73-89, TS 28.976); 4. White Sox 2007 (72-90, TS 28.389); 5. Reds 2001 (66-96, TS 25.653)
What happened to top matches: The 1984 Brewers were just two years removed from a 1982 American League championship, but they wouldn’t return to the playoffs for another 24 years. The 2013 Phillies were also two years past greatness (Philadelphia’s 102 wins in 2011), but were destined for five more losing seasons.
2021 prediction: 78-84, TS 37.672 (24 of 30)
2022 prediction: 73-89, TS 31.176 (29 of 30)
2023 prediction: 81-81, TS 42.453 (23 of 30)
New York Yankees
2020 record: 33-27
2020 TS: 59.553; TS rank: 8 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Red Sox 1979 (91-69, TS 59.765); 2. Brewers 1980 (86-76, TS 59.597); 3. Tigers 2014 (90-72, TS 57.212); 4. Athletics 2003 (96-66, TS 60.716); 5. Royals 1978 (92-70, TS 59.697)
What happened to top matches: The Red Sox generally played good ball after 1979, but they never seemed quite strong enough. They wouldn’t appear in the World Series for another seven years, and then their championship dreams would dribble between Bill Buckner’s legs. The outlook was better for the 1980 Brewers, who reached the World Series in 1982.
2021 prediction: 85-77, TS 46.938 (14 of 30)
2022 prediction: 90-72, TS 59.956 (4 of 30)
2023 prediction: 83-79, TS 45.729 (17 of 30)
Tampa Bay Rays
2020 record: 40-20
2020 TS: 77.699; TS rank: 2 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Phillies 2008 (92-70, TS 78.344); 2. Dodgers 1981 (63-47, TS 78.333); 3. Orioles 1979 (102-57, TS 77.612); 4. Expos 1994 (74-40, TS 75.628); 5. Dodgers 1977 (98-64, TS 77.512)
What happened to top matches: The Phillies won the world championship in 2008, a feat they would not duplicate. But they did win at least 92 games in each of the next three seasons, capped by 102 victories in 2011. The 1981 Dodgers also earned a world title. They won their division twice in the four years to come.
2021 prediction: 91-71, TS 65.317 (2 of 30)
2022 prediction: 92-70, TS 60.558 (2 of 30)
2023 prediction: 90-72, TS 58.670 (3 of 30)
Toronto Blue Jays
2020 record: 32-28
2020 TS: 46.890; TS rank: 13 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Rangers 1989 (83-79, TS 47.056); 2. Indians 2004 (80-82, TS 44.793); 3. Orioles 2004 (78-84, TS 45.377); 4. Cubs 1993 (84-78, TS 46.212); 5. Giants 1981 (56-55, TS 45.749)
What happened to top matches: The Rangers broke through in 1989, finally finishing above .500 after languishing below that mark in six of the seven previous seasons. They remained in positive territory the next two years, though short of the playoffs. The Indians improved by 12 victories in 2004, then by another 13 in 2005, yet missed the postseason.
2021 prediction: 82-80, TS 47.651 (13 of 30)
2022 prediction: 79-83, TS 44.431 (16 of 30)
2023 prediction: 80-82, TS 41.626 (24 of 30)