The American League Central Division title came easily to the Chicago White Sox in 2021. The story will be much the same in 2022.
The Sox outperformed the second-place Cleveland Indians (now Guardians) by 13 games last year, securing their first divisional crown since 2008. If my computer projections are accurate, a repeat is likely in the upcoming season.
This marks the second week of my six-week rollout of divisional reports — presenting a 2021 review each Tuesday, followed by a 2022 forecast on Friday. The previous entries focused on the AL East; the current stories deal with the AL Central.
My predictions are not based on activity in the free-agent market, which sits in suspended animation because of the owner-imposed lockout. Nor are they determined by other acquisitions, changes in managers, or anticipated arrivals of minor-league stars.
My forecast is powered by history, matching each club’s performance during the past three years against the three-year records for every team since the onset of free agency in 1976.
I’ve analyzed all of these clubs on a 100-point scale, with their team scores (TS) being determined by winning percentage, the differential between runs scored and allowed per game, the differential between bases per out (BPO) attained by batters and allowed by pitchers, and postseason success (if any).
I’m looking for hints from the past that will help us gaze into the future — searching specifically for teams from prior years that share characteristics with current clubs. If we can find such doppelgangers, their subsequent records might suggest the future course of each team that takes the field in 2022.
The 2019-2021 White Sox, for example, bear a remarkably close resemblance to the 1977-1979 Milwaukee Brewers.
Take a look at Milwaukee’s output, as registered in wins, losses, winning percentage, and team scores:
1977: 67-95, .414, TS 30.673
1978: 93-69, .574, TS 64.905
1979: 95-66, .590, TS 60.796
And now the three latest versions of the White Sox:
2019: 72-89, .447, TS 35.518
2020: 35-25, .583, TS 63.906
2021: 93-69, .574, TS 61.531
The similarities between the two franchises are obvious, which is good news for the Sox. That’s because the Brewers built on their momentum after 1979. They won 86 games in 1980, then qualified for the playoffs the next two years, making it all the way to Game Seven of the World Series in 1982.
But it doesn’t make sense to rely solely on the closest parallel for each current team, so I began by generating a list of the top five matches. Then I averaged their team scores for the seasons that came next, predicting the relevant club’s progress in 2022.
The five teams that came closest to the 2021 White Sox, for example, had an average TS of 56.841 in the subsequent season. That score should be good enough to bring the Sox another divisional pennant.
You can find a list of each club’s five best matches in the summary below. All were analyzed over a three-year period, but there isn’t enough space to list their complete records, so I have identified them by the final year and record of that span. (The 1977-1979 Brewers, for instance, are displayed with their 1979 wins, losses, and team score.)
My system envisions the White Sox as the easy winner of the AL Central this year, with the other four clubs essentially being interchangeable. Be aware that my rankings are based solely on team score, even though my computer also spits out projected win-loss records. Cleveland’s record is actually one game better than Minnesota’s, but I’m interested only in TS, and the Twins have a slight advantage in that department:
1. Chicago White Sox (89-73), TS 56.841
2. Minnesota Twins (78-84), TS 42.266
3. Cleveland Guardians (79-83), TS 41.103
4. Kansas City Royals (77-85), TS 40.085
5. Detroit Tigers (75-87), TS 37.684
I also generated the standings for 2023 and 2024, using the same formula and principles as for 2022. The results may be a bit hazy — it’s admittedly crazy to issue predictions two and three seasons out — but they bring good tidings for Cleveland fans. Look for the Guardians to soar back to the top of the division in both seasons.
The five AL Central teams are shown in predicted 2022 order below. Each is followed by its 2021 record, its five closest matches, the subsequent performances of the top two matches, and my three years of predictions.
Next week: the AL West.
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1. Chicago White Sox
2021 record: 93-69
2021 TS: 61.531; TS rank: 7 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Brewers 1979 (95-66, TS 60.796); 2. Athletics 2019 (97-65, TS 60.881); 3. Cardinals 2001 (93-69, TS 62.837); 4. Expos 1980 (90-72, TS 61.171); 5. Reds 2013 (90-72, TS 61.161)
What happened to top two matches: Big things lay ahead for the Brewers after 1979. They posted winning records the next four seasons, capped by an American League pennant in 1982. The Athletics have been strong in recent years, making the playoffs in 2019 and 2020, though not in 2021.
2022 prediction: 89-73, TS 56.841 (Division: 1 of 5; MLB: 6 of 30)
2023 prediction: 83-79, TS 49.787 (Division: 2 of 5; MLB: 7 of 30)
2024 prediction: 88-74, TS 58.486 (Division: 2 of 5; MLB: 4 of 30)
2. Minnesota Twins
2021 record: 73-89
2021 TS: 35.010; TS rank: 23 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Astros 1982 (77-85, TS 38.065); 2. Pirates 1993 (75-87, TS 34.390); 3. Mets 2009 (70-92, TS 32.831); 4. Cardinals 2007 (78-84, TS 34.938); 5. Reds 2014 (76-86, TS 39.091)
What happened to top two matches: The Astros rebounded in 1983 to an 85-77 record, then marked time for two seasons before rising to the top of the National League West in 1986. The Pirates plummeted in 1993 after winning three divisional titles from 1990 to 1992. They wouldn’t qualify for the playoffs again until 2013.
2022 prediction: 78-84, TS 42.266 (Division: 2 of 5; MLB: 17 of 30)
2023 prediction: 76-86, TS 40.668 (Division: 4 of 5; MLB: 21 of 30)
2024 prediction: 77-85, TS 40.548 (Division: 4 of 5; MLB: 19 of 30)
3. Cleveland Guardians
2021 record: 80-82
2021 TS: 43.352; TS rank: 17 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Twins 1989 (80-82, TS 44.128); 2. Brewers 2009 (80-82, TS 41.786); 3. Cubs 2005 (79-83, TS 45.944); 4. Mariners 1998 (76-85, TS 44.772); 5. Angels 2013 (78-84, TS 43.138)
What happened to top two matches: The immediate outcome for the Twins was an unpromising 74-88 in 1990. Yet they came out of nowhere to win a world title the following season. The Brewers fell into a momentary spiral after making the playoffs in 2008. They slipped below .500 in 2009, then dropped another three games the next year. But 2011 brought a strong rebound to first place.
2022 prediction: 79-83, TS 41.103 (Division: 3 of 5; MLB: 19 of 30)
2023 prediction: 90-72, TS 62.309 (Division: 1 of 5; MLB: 2 of 30)
2024 prediction: 92-70, TS 60.226 (Division: 1 of 5; MLB: 2 of 30)
4. Kansas City Royals
2021 record: 74-88
2021 TS: 35.262; TS rank: 22 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Brewers 1995 (65-79, TS 37.012); 2. Athletics 1984 (77-85, TS 36.953); 3. Padres 2015 (74-88, TS 35.395); 4. Cubs 1976 (75-87, TS 33.313); 5. Pirates 1998 (69-93, TS 35.309)
What happened to top two matches: The Brewers were remarkably consistent in the late 1990s and early 2000s — mediocre every year. They stayed below .500 for the next nine years after 1995. The Athletics faced two more seasons of pain after 1984, but they soared to the World Series by 1988.
2022 prediction: 77-85, TS 40.085 (Division: 4 of 5; MLB: 22 of 30)
2023 prediction: 75-87, TS 34.216 (Division: 5 of 5; MLB: 27 of 30)
2024 prediction: 73-89, TS 33.292 (Division: 5 of 5; MLB: 28 of 30)
5. Detroit Tigers
2021 record: 77-85
2021 TS: 37.951; TS rank: 20 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Marlins 2000 (79-82, TS 38.984); 2. Mariners 1982 (76-86, TS 36.616); 3. Yankees 1992 (76-86, TS 39.488); 4. Phillies 1998 (75-87, TS 36.401); 5. Royals 2011 (71-91, TS 35.600)
What happened to top two matches: The Marlins remained in familiar territory — below .500 — in 2001 and 2002. What happened next was totally unexpected, as they earned a wild-card berth in 2003, then won the World Series. The outcome was much darker for the Mariners, who stayed below .500 for eight seasons after 1982.
2022 prediction: 75-87, TS 37.684 (Division: 5 of 5; MLB: 25 of 30)
2023 prediction: 81-81, TS 43.618 (Division: 3 of 5; MLB: 17 of 30)
2024 prediction: 86-76, TS 54.957 (Division: 3 of 5; MLB: 6 of 30)