AL Central 2023 forecast
The experts favor the White Sox, but the Guardians (again) deserve consideration
Most experts agreed that the Chicago White Sox were destined to win the American League’s Central Division in 2022.
But the Sox were ravaged by injuries and lethargy, and consequently struggled to eke out a .500 record. The young Cleveland Guardians surprised the baseball world by walking away with the divisional crown, finishing 11 games ahead of Chicago.
So what about 2023?
The experts are leaning toward the Sox once again, even though history suggests that a Cleveland repeat should come as no surprise.
I compared all five AL Central clubs against 1,258 teams from the span between 1976 and 2020, loosely defined as the era of free agency. My aim was to identify the 50 closest matches (CMs) for each current club, the 50 teams from the past that most closely resembled each present-day squad.
It’s my theory that the subsequent records of these CMs will tell us what to expect from 2023’s competitors. (Click here to learn more about my prediction process.)
Fourteen of the 50 CMs for the Guardians played into the postseason in the next season. That’s the best total in the division, eclipsing the totals of 11 for the White Sox, eight for the Minnesota Twins, five for the Kansas City Royals, and three for the Detroit Tigers.
That gives us these projected standings for the AL Central in 2023:
1. Guardians
2. White Sox
3. Twins
4. Royals
5. Tigers
Scroll below to see breakdowns for all five clubs. The first entry for each team is its 2022 record, along with postseason abbreviations of P for a playoff berth, L for a league championship, and W for a world title. Next are the subsequent-season results for the 50 closest matches for a given franchise (based on my 2020-2022 analysis), followed by a list of the top five CMs and their next-year records.
Additional details can be found in the newly published Baseball’s Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook.
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1. Cleveland Guardians
2022 record: 92-70 (.568, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 14 of 50
CM #1: White Sox (2008-2010); 2011 record: 79-83 (.488)
CM #2: Rangers (1996-1998); 1999 record: 95-67 (.586, P)
CM #3: Rangers (1979-1981); 1982 record: 64-98 (.395)
CM #4: Astros (1995-1997); 1998 record: 102-60 (.630, P)
CM #5: Braves (2007-2009); 2010 record: 91-71 (.562, P)
2. Chicago White Sox
2022 record: 81-81 (.500)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 11 of 50
CM #1: Dodgers (1982-1984); 1985 record: 95-67 (.586, P)
CM #2: Astros (1994-1996); 1997 record: 84-78 (.519, P)
CM #3: Reds (2012-2014); 2015 record: 64-98 (.395)
CM #4: Rays (2012-2014); 2015 record: 80-82 (.494)
CM #5: Angels (2008-2010); 2011 record: 86-76 (.531)
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3. Minnesota Twins
2022 record: 78-84 (.481)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 2 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 8 of 50
CM #1: Astros (1986-1988); 1989 record: 86-76 (.531)
CM #2: Angels (1982-1984); 1985 record: 90-72 (.556)
CM #3: Mets (2008-2010); 2011 record: 77-85 (.475)
CM #4: Rangers (1993-1995); 1996 record: 90-72 (.556, P)
CM #5: Tigers (2007-2009); 2010 record: 81-81 (.500)
4. Kansas City Royals
2022 record: 65-97 (.401)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 5 of 50
CM #1: Royals (2016-2018); 2019 record: 59-103 (.364)
CM #2: Pirates (2003-2005); 2006 record: 67-95 (.414)
CM #3: Phillies (1998-2000); 2001 record: 86-76 (.531)
CM #4: Mets (2001-2003); 2004 record: 71-91 (.438)
CM #5: Brewers (1974-1976); 1977 record: 67-95 (.414)
5. Detroit Tigers
2022 record: 66-96 (.407)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 3 of 50
CM #1: White Sox (2015-2017); 2018 record: 62-100 (.383)
CM #2: Rockies (2012-2014); 2015 record: 68-94 (.420)
CM #3: Royals (2016-2018); 2019 record: 59-103 (.364)
CM #4: Twins (1995-1997); 1998 record: 70-92 (.432)
CM #5: Nationals (2004-2006); 2007 record: 73-89 (.451)
Baseball’s Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook
A complete rundown of 2022 stats — and a look ahead at the season to come