AL Central 2024 forecast
The Twins won a lackluster race last year — and they’re primed for a repeat
The American League Central staged an uninspiring race in 2023. The Minnesota Twins, the only club in the division to finish above .500, outdistanced their closest rival by nine games. The other four teams all suffered at least 84 losses, and two endured more than 100.
Look for more of the same in 2024. The Twins enter the year as solid favorites, according to my history-based prediction system.
My computer formula compared the three-year records (2021-2023) of all five AL Central clubs against the corresponding marks for 1,288 teams since the advent of free agency in 1976.
The aim was to identify the 50 closest matches for each current team — that is, the 50 clubs from the past whose three-year records essentially mirrored those of a given present-day member of the AL Central.
The subsequent performances of those 50 teams should — in theory — give us an idea of how each division member will play in the year ahead.
The 2021-2023 Twins, for example, were most closely matched by the 2016-2018 Rays. Tampa Bay went on to the playoffs in 2019 with a 96-66 record. That’s certainly a good sign for Minnesota.
Here’s how the Twins’ 50 closest matches (CMs) fared in their next seasons:
Topped .500: 30
Qualified for the playoffs: 14
Won the league title: 3
Won the World Series: 1
I assigned ascending scores to the four steps of this ladder — one point for exceeding .500 up to four points for a world title. That gives Minnesota a total of 71 points, the highest sum in the division.
Here are the predicted standings, based on each club’s collective score from its 50 CMs:
1. Minnesota Twins, 71 points
2. Cleveland Guardians, 49 points
3. Chicago White Sox, 35 points
4. Detroit Tigers, 32 points
5. Kansas City Royals, 11 points
Scroll down to see each team’s forecast, including its 2023 record, the combined performances of its 50 CMs, and specific breakdowns of the five matches that came the closest of all. Be sure to check the subsequent season for each CM. (These are the abbreviations: W indicates a World Series winner, L a league champion, and P a playoff qualifier.)
Next week: the American League West.
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1. Minnesota Twins
2024 prediction points: 71
2023 record: 87-75 (.537, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 3 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 14 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 30 of 50
CM #1: Rays (2016-2018) — 2019 record of 96-66 (.593, P)
CM #2: Royals (1992-1994) — 1995 record of 70-74 (.486)
CM #3: Rangers (1994-1996) — 1997 record of 77-85 (.475)
CM #4: Mets (1974-1976) — 1977 record of 64-98 (.395)
CM #5: Yankees (2013-2015) — 2016 record of 84-78 (.519)
2. Cleveland Guardians
2024 prediction points: 49
2023 record: 76-86 (.469)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 0 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 10 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 29 of 50
CM #1: Royals (1981-1983) — 1984 record of 84-78 (.519, P)
CM #2: White Sox (2009-2011) — 2012 record of 85-77 (.525)
CM #3: White Sox (1995-1997) — 1998 record of 80-82 (.494)
CM #4: Royals (1993-1995) — 1996 record of 75-86 (.466)
CM #5: Tigers (1992-1994) — 1995 record of 60-84 (.417)
3. Chicago White Sox
2024 prediction points: 35
2023 record: 61-101 (.377)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 7 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 14 of 50
CM #1: Braves (1983-1985) — 1986 record of 72-89 (.447)
CM #2: Cubs (2004-2006) — 2007 record of 85-77 (.525, P)
CM #3: Braves (2013-2015) — 2016 record of 68-93 (.422)
CM #4: Tigers (1993-1995) — 1996 record of 53-109 (.327)
CM #5: Pirates (1983-1985) — 1986 record of 64-98 (.395)
4. Detroit Tigers
2024 prediction points: 32
2023 record: 78-84 (.481)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 7 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 15 of 50
CM #1: Reds (2017-2019) — 2020 record of 31-29 (.517, P)
CM #2: Blue Jays (1994-1996) — 1997 record of 76-86 (.469)
CM #3: Mariners (1985-1987) — 1988 record of 68-93 (.422)
CM #4: Rockies (2011-2013) — 2014 record of 66-96 (.407)
CM #5: Braves (1978-1980) — 1981 record of 50-56 (.472)
5. Kansas City Royals
2024 prediction points: 11
2023 record: 56-106 (.346)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 0 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 1 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 9 of 50
CM #1: Padres (2001-2003) — 2004 record of 87-75 (.537)
CM #2: Expos (1999-2001) — 2002 record of 83-79 (.512)
CM #3: Devil Rays (1999-2001) — 2002 record of 55-106 (.342)
CM #4: Phillies (1995-1997) — 1998 record of 75-87 (.463)
CM #5: Pirates (2004-2006) — 2007 record of 68-94 (.420)