Most experts believe that the 2023 race in the American League East — whose members brag of being the toughest division in baseball — will be extremely tight.
My prediction system agrees. It gives a slight nod to the Toronto Blue Jays, with the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees right on their heels.
I developed a computer program that compared each team’s record during the past three seasons (2020-2022) against the corresponding marks for 1,258 clubs that played during the era of free agency, which began in 1976.
The forecast for each current team was determined by its 50 closest matches (CMs), the 50 clubs from the past that were most similar to the present-day squad. You can find a full explanation in the newly published Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook.
My system focused on the subsequent performance of each CM, an analysis that resulted in a small advantage for the Blue Jays in the AL East. Twenty-three of Toronto’s 50 closest matches qualified for the playoffs in the next season.
That was the highest figure for any current member of the division, squeaking past the Rays and Yankees, who had 21 qualifying CMs apiece. (A tiebreaker gave second place to Tampa Bay, whose 50 closest matches won 11 league championships, compared to five for New York.)
Here’s the projected order for the AL East in 2023, based on my reading of history:
1. Blue Jays
2. Rays
3. Yankees
4. Red Sox
5. Orioles
You’ll find breakdowns for all five teams below. Each summary begins with the club’s 2022 record, accompanied by postseason abbreviations (if applicable) of P for a playoff berth, L for a league championship, and W for a world title. Then come the cumulative results (in the next season) for the 50 closest matches for a given franchise (based on my 2020-2022 comparisons), followed by a list of the five very best CMs with their subsequent records.
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1. Toronto Blue Jays
2022 record: 92-70 (.568, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 3 of 50
Won league title in next season: 7 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 23 of 50
CM #1: Pirates (2012-2014); 2015 record: 98-64 (.605, P)
CM #2: Pirates (1974-1976); 1977 record: 96-66 (.593)
CM #3: Yankees (1982-1984); 1985 record: 97-64 (.602)
CM #4: Reds (2011-2013); 2014 record: 76-86 (.469)
CM #5: Padres (2005-2007); 2008 record: 63-99 (.389)
2. Tampa Bay Rays
2022 record: 86-76 (.531, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 5 of 50
Won league title in next season: 11 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 21 of 50
CM #1: Orioles (1979-1981); 1982 record: 94-68 (.580)
CM #2: Diamondbacks (2001-2003); 2004 record: 51-111 (.315)
CM #3: Nationals (2016-2018); 2019 record: 93-69 (.574, WLP)
CM #4: Indians (1996-1998); 1999 record: 97-65 (.599, P)
CM #5: Yankees (1985-1987); 1988 record: 85-76 (.528)
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3. New York Yankees
2022 record: 99-63 (.611, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 2 of 50
Won league title in next season: 5 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 21 of 50
CM #1: Brewers (1980-1982); 1983 record: 87-75 (.537)
CM #2: Royals (1978-1980); 1981 record: 50-53 (.485, P)
CM #3: Astros (2003-2005); 2006 record: 82-80 (.506)
CM #4: Yankees (1983-1985); 1986 record: 90-72 (.556)
CM #5: Giants (1998-2000); 2001 record: 90-72 (.556)
4. Boston Red Sox
2022 record: 78-84 (.481)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 2 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 13 of 50
CM #1: Cardinals (1995-1997); 1998 record: 83-79 (.512)
CM #2: White Sox (2007-2009); 2010 record: 88-74 (.543)
CM #3: Mariners (2015-2017); 2018 record: 89-73 (.549)
CM #4: Tigers (1992-1994); 1995 record: 60-84 (.417)
CM #5: Cardinals (1978-1980); 1981 record: 59-43 (.578)
5. Baltimore Orioles
2022 record: 83-79 (.512)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 2 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 7 of 50
CM #1: Mariners (2007-2009); 2010 record: 61-101 (.377)
CM #2: Indians (1984-1986); 1987 record: 61-101 (.377)
CM #3: Twins (2015-2017); 2018 record: 78-84 (.481)
CM #4: Diamondbacks (2013-2015); 2016 record: 69-93 (.426)
CM #5: Athletics (1978-1980); 1981 record: 64-45 (.587, P)
Baseball’s Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook
A complete rundown of 2022 stats — and a look ahead at the season to come