The other clubs in the American League Western Division wondered whether the Astros would be truly competitive in 2021.
Houston had emerged as a imposing force from 2017 to 2019, notching 311 regular-season victories en route to three straight divisional titles. It qualified for a pair of World Series along the way, winning the championship in 2017 and battling all the way to Game Seven two years later.
But then there was 2020. The Astros wilted under widespread criticism of their use of technology to steal the signs of opposing teams. They plummeted to a 29-31 record in the Covid-shortened season, making the playoffs only because of Major League Baseball’s expanded postseason structure.
So which Houston club would show up in 2021?
It took less than half a season for the Astros to provide the answer. They pushed to a three-game lead in the AL West by June 26, doubled it to six games before the end of July, and coasted to another divisional title.
Houston’s dominance was quantified by its team score (TS), which I have calculated for each club on a 100-point scale. TS is based on a team’s winning percentage, its differential between runs scored and allowed per game, its differential between bases per out (BPO) attained by batters and allowed by pitchers, and its postseason success (if any).
The Astros finished with a TS of 74.809, second only to the Los Angeles Dodgers among all big-league clubs in 2021 — and better than 94.6% of all teams since 1961. They capped their comeback season with another World Series appearance, losing in six games to the Atlanta Braves.
The rest of the AL West trailed far behind, as you can see in the 2021 breakdown, ranked by TS:
1. Houston Astros (95-67), 74.809 TS
2. Oakland Athletics (86-76), 51.818
3. Seattle Mariners (90-72), 45.671
4. Los Angeles Angels (77-85), 37.806
5. Texas Rangers (60-102), 21.157
Only a quarter of each club’s TS is based on its winning percentage, which helps to explain why the Athletics outranked the Mariners, even though the latter were four games ahead in the standings.
Oakland was superior to Seattle both at the plate and on the mound, yet a weak 23-27 record in one-run games pushed the A’s to third place. (Seattle was an impressive 33-19 in games decided by a single run.) We’ll consider the relative strengths of those two clubs — and other 2021 developments — in the summary below.
Subscribe — free — to Baseball’s Best (and Worst)
A new installment will arrive in your email each Tuesday and Friday morning
Team batting
Cite any stat you wish, and the conclusion will be the same. The Astros were clearly blessed with the division’s strongest batting order last season.
Houston’s average of 5.33 runs per game was 0.74 better than the benchmark for Oakland, the runner-up in that category. The Astros also led the division in batting average (.267, 22 points ahead of the second-place Angels), slugging average (.444, 37 points beyond the Angels, again next in line), and 221 home runs (beating the Athletics and Mariners by 22 apiece).
And, of course, the outcome in terms of base value (BV) was the same.
I counted all of the bases that each club’s batters reached through hits, walks, hit batsmen, stolen bases, and sacrifices. Then I tabulated the outs they made. The typical big-league batter attained .690 bases per out (BPO) last year.
The Astros led the AL West with 3,235 bases and a .750 BPO. If the latter figure had merely matched the major-league norm of .690, they would have reached only 2,975 bases. The resulting surplus (3,235 minus 2,975) was Houston’s BV, plus-260.
No other club in the division came close in 2021:
1. Astros, 260 BV
2. Athletics, 21
3. Angels, -94
4. Mariners, -195
5. Rangers, -323
Individual batting (best)
It came as no surprise that the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani was unanimously chosen as the American League’s Most Valuable Player. Not only did he fashion a 9-2 record in 23 starts as a pitcher, but he also smashed 46 homers and drove in 100 runs as a designated hitter.
Ohtani reached 446 bases and made 418 outs as a batter, giving him an impressive BPO of 1.067. If he had simply matched the big-league norm of .690, he would have attained only 288 bases. His surplus, a BV of plus-158, was far and away the best in the AL West. Oakland’s Matt Olson was the only other batter to get to triple digits. These batters were the division’s five best:
1. Shohei Ohtani, Angels, 158 BV
2. Matt Olson, Athletics, 113
3. Kyle Tucker, Astros, 97
4. Joey Gallo, Rangers, 68
5. Yordan Alvarez, Astros, 66
Individual batting (worst)
Now for the flip side of the coin. Los Angeles second baseman David Fletcher batted a respectable .262 last year, but he swatted only 32 extra-base hits and drew just 31 walks. His output was consequently hampered by his lack of power and his weak batting eye.
Fletcher reached 257 bases and made 482 outs. The former figure fell 76 below the major-league norm, saddling him with the lowest BV for any batter in the division. These were 2021’s bottom five in the AL West:
1. David Fletcher, Angels, -76 BV
2. Elvis Andrus, Athletics, -60
3. Martin Maldonado, Astros, -55
4. Jose Trevino, Rangers, -48
5. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers, -44
Team pitching
Base value is a two-way tool. It not only quantifies the productivity of batters, but it’s equally useful in measuring the stinginess of pitchers. The goal, of course, is to drive a pitcher’s BV as low as possible, preferably into negative territory.
The Astros dominated the traditional pitching stats, posting the lowest earned run average (3.76) in the AL West, while surrendering the fewest walks and hits per inning (1.230) and amassing the most strikeouts (1,456).
They also gave up only 2,779 bases, the lowest total in the division and 219 fewer than a normal big-league staff would have yielded under the same circumstances. That amounted to the lowest BV in the division, though the Athletics were a competitive runner-up:
1. Astros, -219 BV
2. Athletics, -146
3. Mariners, 3
4. Angels, 90
5. Rangers, 151
Individual pitching (best)
Chris Bassitt is not renowned as one of baseball’s great pitchers, but he has been a reliable starter during his seven-year career — achieving more wins than losses (31-25) and posting a decent 3.47 earned run average.
The 2021 season was his best yet, as Bassitt racked up a 12-4 record and a 3.15 ERA in 27 starts for the Athletics. He gave up only 264 bases while securing 471 outs, yielding an average of .561 bases per out, almost 130 points below the major-league norm. His resulting BV of minus-61 was the best for any AL West pitcher.
These were the five pitchers in the division who attained the lowest base values:
1. Chris Bassitt, Athletics, -61 BV
2. Lance McCullers Jr., Astros, -56
3. Frankie Montas, Athletics, -52
4. Ryan Pressly, Astros, -48
5. Kyle Gibson, Rangers, -45
Individual pitching (worst)
It was an awfully rough season for Jordan Lyles. The Texas starter gave up more earned runs (103) and home runs (38) than any other pitcher in either league in 2021. His ERA of 5.15 was the worst for anybody who worked at least 180 innings.
Here’s another way to look at it: Lyles yielded 440 bases, which was 72 more than the typical pitcher would have surrendered under the same circumstances. That was the worst BV among the division’s pitchers, putting him atop this list of the AL West’s bottom five:
1. Jordan Lyles, Rangers, 72 BV
2. Justus Sheffield, Mariners, 63
3. Mike Foltynewicz, Rangers, 50
4. Aaron Slegers, Angels, 35
5. Dylan Bundy, Angels, 34