The Houston Astros have dominated the American League West since 2017, winning six straight full-season titles (exempting only the Covid-truncated schedule of 2020).
They’ll run the streak to seven in 2024, according to my history-based prediction system.
I compared the record for each AL West club during the past three seasons against the corresponding marks for 1,288 teams throughout the era of free agency (which began in 1976), looking for parallels from the past that might offer hints about the future.
I identified the 50 closest matches (CMs) for each current team, and then examined their subsequent performances.
The 2021-2023 Astros, for example, most closely resembled the 1975-1977 Cincinnati Reds, the renowned Big Red Machine that won a pair of world titles over the three-year span. The Reds subsequently went 92-69 in 1978, missing the playoffs (though they would have qualified under today’s wild-card system).
Here are the collective performances of the Astros’ 50 CMs in their next seasons:
Topped .500: 35
Qualified for the playoffs: 21
Won the league title: 5
Won the World Series: 2
My predictions are based on the four rungs of this ladder. Each of the 50 CMs that topped .500 is worth one point, with the subsequent steps valued at two, three, and four points. Houston’s total is precisely 100 points.
My predicted standings for the AL West are determined by the CM scores for the five clubs. The Astros emerge as a clear favorite, with Seattle and Texas (the defending world champs, don’t forget) duking it out for second:
1. Houston Astros, 100 points
2. Seattle Mariners, 79 points
3. Texas Rangers, 77 points
4. Los Angeles Angels, 38 points
5. Oakland Athletics, 10 points
Look below for each team’s resulting forecast, including its 2023 record, the collective performances of its 50 CMs, and specific breakdowns of the five matches that came the closest of all. Pay special attention to the subsequent season for each match; that’s what’s important here. (You’ll encounter these parenthetical abbreviations: W indicates a World Series winner, L a league champion, and P a playoff qualifier.)
We’ll cross over to the National League East next week.
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1. Houston Astros
2024 prediction points: 100
2023 record: 90-72 (.556, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 2 of 50
Won league title in next season: 5 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 21 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 35 of 50
CM #1: Reds (1975-1977) — 1978 record of 92-69 (.571)
CM #2: Red Sox (2003-2005) — 2006 record of 86-76 (.531)
CM #3: Mariners (2000-2002) — 2003 record of 93-69 (.574)
CM #4: Indians (2016-2018) — 2019 record of 93-69 (.574)
CM #5: Cubs (2015-2017) — 2018 record of 95-68 (.583, P)
2. Seattle Mariners
2024 prediction points: 79
2023 record: 88-74 (.543)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 4 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 17 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 33 of 50
CM #1: Dodgers (1994-1996) — 1997 record of 88-74 (.543)
CM #2: Cardinals (2017-2019) — 2020 record of 30-28 (.517, P)
CM #3: Yankees (1982-1984) — 1985 record of 97-64 (.602)
CM #4: Twins (2001-2003) — 2004 record of 92-70 (.568, P)
CM #5: Rays (2017-2019) — 2020 record of 40-20 (.667, LP)
3. Texas Rangers
2024 prediction points: 77
2023 record: 90-72 (.556, WLP)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 2 of 50
Won league title in next season: 4 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 13 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 31 of 50
CM #1: Phillies (1991-1993) — 1994 record of 54-61 (.470)
CM #2: Rockies (2005-2007) — 2008 record of 74-88 (.457)
CM #3: Dodgers (1986-1988) — 1989 record of 77-83 (.481)
CM #4: Red Sox (2014-2016) — 2017 record of 93-69 (.574, P)
CM #5: Padres (2018-2020) — 2021 record of 79-83 (.488)
4. Los Angeles Angels
2024 prediction points: 38
2023 record: 73-89 (.451)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 2 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 6 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 16 of 50
CM #1: Athletics (1984-1986) — 1987 record of 81-81 (.500)
CM #2: Angels (2019-2021) — 2022 record of 73-89 (.451)
CM #3: Cubs (1990-1992) — 1993 record of 84-78 (.519)
CM #4: Indians (1988-1990) — 1991 record of 57-105 (.352)
CM #5: Padres (2011-2013) — 2014 record of 77-85 (.475)
5. Oakland Athletics
2024 prediction points: 10
2023 record: 50-112 (.309)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 0 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 1 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 8 of 50
CM #1: Royals (2003-2005) — 2006 record of 62-100 (.383)
CM #2: Orioles (1986-1988) — 1989 record of 87-75 (.537)
CM #3: Cubs (1979-1981) — 1982 record of 73-89 (.451)
CM #4: Marlins (2017-2019) — 2020 record of 31-29 (.517, P)
CM #5: Tigers (2001-2003) — 2004 record of 72-90 (.444)