Era’s best lefty starters
Randy Johnson’s mix of excellence and longevity earns him the top score
Who was the greatest left-handed starting pitcher in baseball’s Modern Era?
One name immediately flashes to mind — Sandy Koufax. The Los Angeles Dodgers ace seemed to be virtually unhittable throughout the era’s first six seasons. He fashioned a stunning 129-47 record with a stingy earned run average of 2.19 between 1961 and 1966.
Koufax’s statistics are admittedly impressive (and sometimes breathtaking), yet he doesn’t hold first place in my new rankings of the top left-handed starters over the Modern Era’s 62 seasons (1961-2022).
That honor goes to Randy Johnson, a towering fireballer who pitched for six clubs (primarily the Seattle Mariners and Arizona Diamondbacks) between 1988 and 2009. He won five Cy Young Awards along the way.
My 10-part formula, which is detailed below, rewards excellence and longevity. Johnson personified both qualities, but a severe elbow injury forced Koufax to retire in his prime at age 30. Who knows what he might have accomplished if he had pitched until 46, as Johnson did?
A current starter for the Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw, holds second place in today’s rankings of lefty starters. He’s followed by No. 3 Steve Carlton, who pitched for the Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, and four other teams; No. 4 Koufax; and No. 5 Chris Sale, a still-active starter who has split his time between the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox.
These rankings are confined to the 171 lefties who made at least 162 starts during the 1961-2022 span. The formula takes each pitcher’s complete statistics into account, including any relief appearances he might have made. But any stats accumulated prior to 1961 have been disregarded.
This is the 10th weekly installment in my series about the best players in the Modern Era. Follow these links to see the previously issued standings for catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, left fielders, center fielders, right fielders, and designated hitters.
All of those rankings were based on a formula powered by batting and fielding statistics. A different formula, of course, is used for pitchers, so let me offer a quick rundown of its 10 components:
Wins above replacement. Total WAR for 1961 through 2022, as calculated by Baseball Reference.
Wins-above-replacement rate. A ratio of WAR per 200 innings pitched.
Earned run average. The ratio of earned runs that a pitcher surrendered per nine innings in 1961-2022.
Batting average. Hits allowed divided by at-bats.
Slugging percentage. The rate of total bases (by hits) allowed per at-bat.
Bases per out. A ratio of all bases that a pitcher allowed to the outs that he obtained. BPO is figured in three steps: (1) Add up the bases surrendered through hits, walks, hit batters, and stolen bases, as well as the number of sacrifice hits and sacrifice flies. (2) Calculate outs by subtracting hits from at-bats, then adding double plays, caught stealings, sacrifice hits, and sacrifice flies. (3) Divide bases by outs.
Strikeouts. The Modern Era total.
Strikeout rate. The average number of strikeouts per nine innings.
Games started. The total for the 1961-2022 period.
Wins. Another Modern Era sum.
My formula ranks all pitchers from top to bottom, then assigns scores of 1,000 points to the leader and 0 points to the tailender in each group. Everybody else’s score is determined by their relative performances between top and bottom. (We’ll use the same system next Thursday for right-handed starters.)
Statistical breakdowns for the era’s top five left-handed starting pitchers can be found below, followed by a list of the subsequent 15.
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1. Randy Johnson (1988-2009)
Score: 1,000 points
WAR: 103.5 total, 5.0 per 200 IP
Averages: 3.29 ERA, .221 BA, .353 SLG, .617 BPO
Strikeouts: 4,875 total, 10.6 per 9 IP
Totals: 603 GS, 303 W
Notes: Johnson topped National League pitchers in strikeouts five different times, peaking with 372 K’s in 2001. He paced the American League in the same category on four occasions. Johnson also led his league in ERA and complete games four times apiece, and he allowed the fewest hits per nine innings in six seasons.
2. Clayton Kershaw (2008-2022)
Score: 932 points
WAR: 73.4 total, 5.7 per 200 IP
Averages: 2.48 ERA, .209 BA, .321 SLG, .498 BPO
Strikeouts: 2,807 total, 9.8 per 9 IP
Totals: 398 GS, 197 W
Notes: Kershaw continues to pitch well, reaching double digits in wins in 2023, but his record for these rankings is confined to his first 15 seasons. He won Cy Young Awards in 2011, 2013, and 2014, and was also named the National League’s Most Valuable Player in the latter season. He posted the NL’s best ERA five times.
3. Steve Carlton (1965-1988)
Score: 863 points
WAR: 84.1 total, 3.2 per 200 IP
Averages: 3.22 ERA, .240 BA, .360 SLG, .606 BPO
Strikeouts: 4,136 total, 7.1 per 9 IP
Totals: 709 GS, 329 W
Notes: Carlton was a workhorse who pitched 5,217 innings, the ninth-highest total in major-league history. He won four Cy Young trophies, most notably in 1972, when he posted a 27-10 record with a 1.97 ERA for the woeful Phillies. Philadelphia went 32-87 in the 119 games where Carlton didn’t figure in the decision.
4. Sandy Koufax (1961-1966)
Score: 851 points
WAR: 46.4 total, 5.7 per 200 IP
Averages: 2.19 ERA, .197 BA, .293 SLG, .466 BPO
Strikeouts: 1,713 total, 9.4 per 9 IP
Totals: 211 GS, 129 W
Notes: The Modern Era cutoff eliminates the weakest six years of Koufax’s career, leaving his dominant period from 1961 to 1966. He finished with the National League’s best ERA in five of those six seasons, while leading the league in strikeouts four times. Koufax came away with three Cy Young Awards and an MVP trophy.
5. Chris Sale (2010-2022)
Score: 727 points
WAR: 45.5 total, 5.4 per 200 IP
Averages: 3.03 ERA, .219 BA, .353 SLG, .556 BPO
Strikeouts: 2,064 total, 11.1 per 9 IP
Totals: 243 GS, 114 W
Notes: Sale has been plagued with injuries in recent seasons, dimming any memories of his pitching prowess between 2012 and 2018. He went 99-59 with a 2.91 ERA over that seven-year stretch. Sale has never won a Cy Young Award, though he did finish among the top six vote-getters on seven occasions.
Next 15
6. Sam McDowell (1961-1975)
7. Tom Glavine (1987-2008)
8. CC Sabathia (2001-2019)
9. Johan Santana (2000-2012)
10. Tommy John (1963-1989)
11. Cole Hamels (2006-2020)
12. Jerry Koosman (1967-1985)
13. Mickey Lolich (1963-1979)
14. Vida Blue (1969-1986)
15. Frank Tanana (1973-1993)
16. David Price (2008-2022)
17. Sid Fernandez (1983-1997)
18. Jim Kaat (1961-1983)
19. (tie) Andy Pettitte (1995-2013)
19. (tie) Chuck Finley (1986-2002)