Exceeding expectations
The Orioles and Rays are astounding the experts, but can they keep winning?
The Tampa Bay Rays have been unexpectedly good this season. Astoundingly, shockingly good.
Nobody believed the Rays would be terrible. Oddsmakers predicted this spring that Tampa Bay would finish with one of the American League’s best records. Caesars Sportsbook set the Rays’ over/under at 89 wins, trailing only the Houston Astros (95), New York Yankees (94), and Toronto Blue Jays (92) among the 15 AL clubs.
But the Rays have vastly exceeded those high expectations, winning 35 of their first 50 games, translating to a victory rate of .700. If they were to maintain that feverish pace over the entire 162-game schedule, they would finish with 113.4 wins, surpassing Caesars’s preseason forecast by 24.4.
That’s the very definition of overachievement.
Yet Tampa Bay’s record — amazingly good though it may be — still doesn’t rank as 2023’s biggest shock. That distinction belongs to Baltimore, which was pegged for a losing year with an over/under of 78 wins. The Orioles responded by going 33-17 in their first 50 games, the equivalent of 106.9 victories over a full season. That’s 28.9 wins beyond their expected total.
Only the fiercest diehards believe that the Rays and Orioles can maintain their exalted records for the entire year. But the 50-game mark offers a good opportunity to separate baseball’s highest and lowest achievers, and both of those clubs definitely belong in the former group.
So do the Texas Rangers (plus-22.2), Arizona Diamondbacks (plus-17.5), and Pittsburgh Pirates (plus-16.7), the other three teams that have double-digit win balances, based on comparisons of their spring predictions and 50-game projections.
At the opposite end of the scale are the Oakland Athletics. The oddsmakers fully expected the A’s to be horrible in 2023, which is why Caesars set their over/under at 59.5 wins, the lowest predicted total in the American League. (Only the National League’s Washington Nationals were slotted under Oakland with a forecast of 59.0 wins.)
But the Athletics have been considerably more dismal than envisioned. Their 10-40 record would translate to just 32.4 victories over a full 162-game slate. That yields a balance of minus-27.1, easily the worst in the majors.
The runners-up for underachievement are the Kansas City Royals (minus-19.9) and San Diego Padres (minus-19.5).
The following breakdown shows the 50-game record for each club, followed by its season win prediction (as issued by Caesars in March), its win projection (based on its 50-game record), and the resulting balance. Teams are ranked from the best overachievers — so far — to the worst underachievers.
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1. Baltimore Orioles
50-game record: 33-17
Season win prediction: 78.0
50-game win projection: 106.9
Win balance: Plus-28.9
2. Tampa Bay Rays
50-game record: 35-15
Season win prediction: 89.0
50-game win projection: 113.4
Win balance: Plus-24.4
3. Texas Rangers
50-game record: 32-18
Season win prediction: 81.5
50-game win projection: 103.7
Win balance: Plus-22.2
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
50-game record: 29-21
Season win prediction: 76.5
50-game win projection: 94.0
Win balance: Plus-17.5
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
50-game record: 26-24
Season win prediction: 67.5
50-game win projection: 84.2
Win balance: Plus-16.7
6. Washington Nationals
50-game record: 21-29
Season win prediction: 59.0
50-game win projection: 68.0
Win balance: Plus-9.0
7. Detroit Tigers
50-game record: 24-26
Season win prediction: 69.5
50-game win projection: 77.8
Win balance: Plus-8.3
8. Boston Red Sox
50-game record: 26-24
Season win prediction: 77.5
50-game win projection: 84.2
Win balance: Plus-6.7
9. Los Angeles Angels
50-game record: 27-23
Season win prediction: 81.5
50-game win projection: 87.5
Win balance: Plus-6.0
10. Los Angeles Dodgers
50-game record: 31-19
Season win prediction: 94.5
50-game win projection: 100.4
Win balance: Plus-5.9
11. Miami Marlins
50-game record: 25-25
Season win prediction: 75.5
50-game win projection: 81.0
Win balance: Plus-5.5
12. Atlanta Braves
50-game record: 31-19
Season win prediction: 95.5
50-game win projection: 100.4
Win balance: Plus-4.9
13. New York Yankees
50-game record: 30-20
Season win prediction: 94.0
50-game win projection: 97.2
Win balance: Plus-3.2
14. Milwaukee Brewers
50-game record: 27-23
Season win prediction: 84.5
50-game win projection: 87.5
Win balance: Plus-3.0
15. (tie) Cincinnati Reds
50-game record: 21-29
Season win prediction: 66.0
50-game win projection: 68.0
Win balance: Plus-2.0
15. (tie) Colorado Rockies
50-game record: 21-29
Season win prediction: 66.0
50-game win projection: 68.0
Win balance: Plus-2.0
17. Minnesota Twins
50-game record: 26-24
Season win prediction: 83.5
50-game win projection: 84.2
Win balance: Plus-0.7
18. San Francisco Giants
50-game record: 25-25
Season win prediction: 81.0
50-game win projection: 81.0
Win balance: Even
19. Houston Astros
50-game record: 29-21
Season win prediction: 95.0
50-game win projection: 94.0
Win balance: Minus-1.0
20. Seattle Mariners
50-game record: 26-24
Season win prediction: 87.0
50-game win projection: 84.2
Win balance: Minus-2.8
21. Chicago Cubs
50-game record: 22-28
Season win prediction: 78.0
50-game win projection: 71.3
Win balance: Minus-6.7
22. Toronto Blue Jays
50-game record: 26-24
Season win prediction: 92.0
50-game win projection: 84.2
Win balance: Minus-7.8
23. New York Mets
50-game record: 25-25
Season win prediction: 92.5
50-game win projection: 81.0
Win balance: Minus-11.5
24. Philadelphia Phillies
50-game record: 23-27
Season win prediction: 86.5
50-game win projection: 74.5
Win balance: Minus-12.0
25. Cleveland Guardians
50-game record: 22-28
Season win prediction: 87.5
50-game win projection: 71.3
Win balance: Minus-16.2
26. Chicago White Sox
50-game record: 20-30
Season win prediction: 82.0
50-game win projection: 64.8
Win balance: Minus-17.2
27. St. Louis Cardinals
50-game record: 22-28
Season win prediction: 89.0
50-game win projection: 71.3
Win balance: Minus-17.7
28. San Diego Padres
50-game record: 23-27
Season win prediction: 94.0
50-game win projection: 74.5
Win balance: Minus-19.5
29. Kansas City Royals
50-game record: 15-35
Season win prediction: 68.5
50-game win projection: 48.6
Win balance: Minus-19.9
30. Oakland Athletics
50-game record: 10-40
Season win prediction: 59.5
50-game win projection: 32.4
Win balance: Minus-27.1