Last Friday’s story focused on the batters who exceeded expectations by the widest margins in 2021, as reflected in their strongly positive base values.
Now it’s time for the flip side. Today’s entry is about the outstanding pitchers who rang up the biggest BVs on the negative side.
This year’s combined average for the American and National Leagues was .690 bases per out (BPO), encompassing all bases reached through hits, walks, hit batsmen, stolen bases, and sacrifices.
You may recall that Bryce Harper was 2021’s most productive batter, piling up 424 bases against 358 outs, yielding an extraordinary BPO of 1.184.
The typical big-league hitter who generated the same number of outs (358) would have reached 247 bases with a .690 BPO. Harper exceeded that total by 177, giving him the best BV in the majors.
We can reverse these calculations, of course, to determine the season’s most effective pitchers. The lower the base value falls into negative territory, the better.
The results show that Zack Wheeler of the Phillies edged the National League’s Cy Young Award winner, Corbin Burnes of the Brewers, for the overall BV crown.
Burnes actually posted a considerably better BPO, .457, which was the lowest among anybody who crossed the 162-inning threshold for either league’s earned-run-average title. Wheeler’s BPO was .501.
But their inning counts tipped the balance in the BV race, which is decided not only by efficiency, but also by workload.
Burnes pitched 167 innings, a total dwarfed by Wheeler’s 213.1 innings. The latter’s greater production of outs allowed him to finish with a base value of minus-121, which was four better than Burnes’s minus-117.
Three other pitchers, all in the NL, surrendered at least 100 fewer bases than the typical pitcher under the same conditions: Brandon Woodruff (Brewers), Walker Buehler (Dodgers), and Max Scherzer (who split his season between the Nationals and Dodgers).
The American League’s BV leader was Carlos Rodon of the White Sox at minus-68, one better than Gerrit Cole of the Yankees at minus-67. The league’s Cy Young Award winner, Robbie Ray of the Blue Jays, was way back in the pack. He tied for 28th place with a BV of minus-32.
Each league’s 10 best and 10 worst pitchers on the BV scale can be seen below.
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American League BV top 10 pitchers
1. Carlos Rodon, White Sox, -68
2. Gerrit Cole, Yankees, -67
3. Emmanuel Clase, Indians, -66
4. Lance Lynn, White Sox, -65
5. Chris Bassitt, Athletics, -61
6. Jose Berrios, Twins-Blue Jays, -59
7. Lance McCullers Jr., Astros, -56
8. Liam Hendriks, White Sox, -52
8. Frankie Montas, Athletics, -52
10. Tyler Glasnow, Rays, -51
10. Collin McHugh, Rays, -51
National League BV top 10 pitchers
1. Zack Wheeler, Phillies, -121
2. Corbin Burnes, Brewers, -117
3. Brandon Woodruff, Brewers, -108
4. Walker Buehler, Dodgers, -107
5. Max Scherzer, Nationals-Dodgers, -106
6. Jacob deGrom, Mets, -96
7. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals, -90
8. Julio Urias, Dodgers, -89
9. Kevin Gausman, Giants, -87
10. Charlie Morton, Braves, -83
American League BV bottom 10 pitchers
1. Jordan Lyles, Rangers, 72
2. J.A. Happ, Twins, 65
3. Justus Sheffield, Mariners, 63
4. Jorge Lopez, Orioles, 56
5. Adam Plutko, Orioles, 54
6. Brad Keller, Royals, 52
6. Spenser Watkins, Orioles, 52
8. Matt Harvey, Orioles, 51
9. Mike Foltynewicz, Rangers, 50
9. Matt Shoemaker, Twins, 50
National League BV bottom 10 pitchers
1. Jake Arrieta, Cubs-Padres, 93
2. Patrick Corbin, Nationals, 76
3. Zach Davies, Cubs, 74
4. Wil Crowe, Pirates, 61
5. Mitch Keller, Pirates, 59
6. Vince Velasquez, Phillies-Padres, 57
7. Chi Chi Gonzalez, Rockies, 53
8. Jon Lester, Nationals-Cardinals, 51
9. Erick Fedde, Nationals, 46
10. Kyle Hendricks, Cubs, 45