It’s still unclear who will win 2023’s Cy Young Awards, but one thing seems certain: Justin Verlander and Sandy Alcantara won’t be repeating.
Verlander never had a chance of winning the American League’s award again, of course, because he joined the National League’s New York Mets over the winter as a free agent. But a muscle strain delayed the start of his season, and he has been remarkably average since returning. Verlander’s record at the end of June was 2-4 with a 4.11 ERA.
Alcantara would happily settle for those stats, mediocre through they might be. A season-long battle with inconsistency left the Miami Marlins ace at 3-6 and 4.82 as of June 30. He was no longer the best starter on his team, let along the entire National League.
So who are the frontrunners for this year’s Cy Young Awards? I’m using base value as an indicator.
BV is a comparison of the number of bases that a given pitcher has surrendered (through hits, walks, hit batters, stolen bases, and sacrifices) and the corresponding number that the average big-league pitcher would have yielded in the same amount of innings.
The American League race, as measured this way, was a bit chaotic at the season’s halfway point. Framber Valdez of the Houston Astros established himself as a narrow frontrunner with a BV of minus-52. (Remember that a negative value is an indicator of pitching excellence.) He was followed closely by Joe Ryan of the Minnesota Twins at minus-49 and Nathan Eovaldi of the Texas Rangers at minus-48.
Conventional stats buttressed their cases. Valdez was the league’s midyear ERA leader at 2.49. Ryan was one of nine AL pitchers with at least eight wins. And Eovaldi topped the AL in innings with 112.1.
Two other prominent contenders were further down the list. Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels was seventh with a base value of minus-41, but he’s already the frontrunner for the Most Valuable Player Award because of his offensive prowess. And Shane McClanahan of the Tampa Bay Rays was all the way down in 20th place with a BV of minus-28 despite his gaudy 11-1 record.
The race for the National League’s Cy is a good bit simpler. Marcus Stroman of the Chicago Cubs (BV of minus-63, best in the majors) and Zac Gallen of the Arizona Diamondbacks (minus-56) have separated themselves from the pack.
Stroman had a 9-5 record at the halfway point. He struck out 85 batters with a 2.47 ERA in the season’s first three months. Gallen posted one more win (10) and 23 more strikeouts (108) than Stroman over that span, though his ERA was considerably higher (3.02).
Look below to see the top 10 pitchers in each league after the games of June 30, followed by the pitchers with the best base values on all 30 clubs.
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American League top 10
1. Framber Valdez, Astros, BV -52
2. Joe Ryan, Twins, BV -49
3. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers, BV -48
4. Dane Dunning, Rangers, BV -44
4. Eduardo Rodriguez, Tigers, BV -44
6. Zach Eflin, Rays, BV -43
7. Shohei Ohtani, Angels, BV -41
8. Tyler Wells, Orioles, BV -39
9. Gerrit Cole, Yankees, BV -38
10. Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays, BV -37
National League top 10
1. Marcus Stroman, Cubs, BV -63
2. Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks, BV -56
3. Justin Steele, Cubs, BV -48
4. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, BV -45
5. Bryce Elder, Braves, BV -42
6. Mitch Keller, Pirates, BV -38
6. Logan Webb, Giants, BV -38
8. Dustin May, Dodgers, BV -35
9. Michael Wacha, Padres, BV -32
9. Zack Wheeler, Phillies, BV -32
American League team leaders
Angels — Shohei Ohtani, BV -41
Astros — Framber Valdez, BV -52
Athletics — Mason Miller, BV -12
Blue Jays — Kevin Gausman, BV -37
Guardians — Shane Bieber, BV -27
Mariners — George Kirby, BV -35
Orioles — Tyler Wells, BV -39
Rangers — Nathan Eovaldi, BV -48
Rays — Zach Eflin, BV -43
Red Sox — James Paxton, BV -29
Royals — Carlos Hernandez, BV -22
Tigers — Eduardo Rodriguez, BV -44
Twins — Joe Ryan, BV -49
White Sox — Gregory Santos, BV -19
Yankees — Gerrit Cole, BV -38
National League team leaders
Braves — Bryce Elder, BV -42
Brewers — Wade Miley, BV -26
Cardinals — Ryan Helsley and Jordan Montgomery, BV -10
Cubs — Marcus Stroman, BV -63
Diamondbacks — Zac Gallen, BV -56
Dodgers — Clayton Kershaw, BV -45
Giants — Logan Webb, BV -38
Marlins — Eury Perez, BV -25
Mets — Kodai Senga, BV -16
Nationals — Hunter Harvey, BV -13
Padres — Michael Wacha, BV -32
Phillies — Zack Wheeler, BV -32
Pirates — Mitch Keller, BV -38
Reds — Alexis Diaz, BV -23
Rockies — Brent Suter, BV -19