The homestretch is in sight.
Yes, yes, we still have a week and a half to go in August. But September is close at hand, and everybody knows it can be the happiest or cruelest month for a pennant contender.
Slightly more than half of all big-league clubs — 16 of 30 — sit within six games of a 2021 playoff spot (as of August 19). They all hope to acquire momentum in the next six weeks, allowing them to lock down postseason berths and set their targets on the world title.
That’s the thinking, anyway. But you know what? Momentum is overrated.
I’ve taken a look back at the championship teams of the Division Era (1969 to the present), excluding seasons disrupted by labor disputes (1981 and 1994) and Covid-19 (2020). That leaves us with 49 World Series winners.
Twenty-one of those champions actually posted higher winning percentages for their initial five-month spans (April through August) than they did in September. Their average record in the final month was 16-13, which sounds more like mediocrity than momentum.
Yet they all went on to win the World Series trophy.
It would be nice, of course, to emulate the 2001 Oakland Athletics or the 2017 Cleveland Indians. The A’s dropped only four games — never more than one in a row — from September 1 through October 7 of 2001. The Indians ripped off a 22-game winning streak that began in late August 2017 and extended through the first two weeks of September.
Just one thing. Their momentum vanished almost immediately in the playoffs. The two clubs met identical — and abrupt — fates, each losing an AL Division Series to the Yankees. Keep that in mind when you hear analysts explain how a successful final month is a sure sign of postseason glory.
Listed below are the best and worst clubs of the Division Era in six stretch-drive categories, ranked by their post-August records.
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Best finishes
1. Indians 2017 (through August: 76-56, .576; afterward: 26-4, .867)
2. Athletics 2001 (through August: 79-56, .585; afterward: 23-4, .852)
3. Royals 1977 (through August: 76-54, .585; afterward: 26-6, .813)
4. Orioles 1974 (through August: 66-65, .504; afterward: 25-6, .806)
5. White Sox 1983 (through August: 75-57, .568; afterward: 24-6, .800)
Notes: These are the best post-August records in the Division Era. All five of these clubs qualified for the postseason, but not necessarily because of their fast finishes. Four of them — all but the 1974 Orioles — would have made the playoffs if the season had ended on August 31. The 2017 Indians, for example, already held a comfortable seven-game lead in the AL Central at that point. Their September explosion pushed the margin up to 17 games. Yet it’s interesting to note that none of these momentum-laden clubs won a World Series or even a league title.
Worst finishes
1. Orioles 2002 (through August: 63-71, .470; afterward: 4-24, .143)
2. Blue Jays 1978 (through August: 55-80, .407; afterward: 4-22, .154)
2. Tigers 1996 (through August: 49-87, .360; afterward: 4-22, .154)
4. Rangers 1972 (through August: 49-76, .392; afterward: 5-24, .172)
5. Pirates 1998 (through August: 64-71, .474; afterward: 5-22, .185)
Notes: Here is the flip side — the era’s worst records after August. The 2002 Orioles and 1998 Pirates were mediocre clubs during the first five months of their seasons, though they certainly weren’t terrible. But their swan dives pushed both clubs past 90 losses (95 for Baltimore, 93 for Pittsburgh). The other three teams were awful from the beginning, even more so in September. All reached triple digits in defeats, led by the 1996 Tigers with 109. Yet the Orioles out-tanked everyone in the final month with a 4-24 mark, ending the 2002 season with a 12-game losing streak.
Best surge
1. Orioles 1974 (through August: 66-65, .504; afterward: 25-6, .806)
2. Yankees 1995 (through August: 57-59, .491; afterward: 22-6, .786)
3. Indians 2013 (through August: 71-64, .526; afterward: 21-6, .778)
4. Astros 2004 (through August: 69-63, .523; afterward: 23-7, .767)
5. Athletics 2000 (through August: 69-63, .523; afterward: 22-7, .759)
Notes: A surge is defined as a successful September playoff drive by a club that wouldn’t have qualified for the postseason on August 31. The Orioles were struggling to stay above the .500 waterline after five months of the 1974 season. They ranked third in the AL East, closer to last place (four and a half games ahead of the Tigers) than the lead (six games behind the Red Sox). But something clicked when the calendar flipped. Baltimore won its first seven games of September, then closed the year with a nine-game unbeaten streak, seizing the divisional crown.
Worst collapse
1. Red Sox 2011 (through August: 83-52, .615; afterward: 7-20, .259)
2. Diamondbacks 2018 (through August: 74-61, .548; afterward: 8-19, .296)
3. Astros 1996 (through August: 74-63, .540; afterward: 8-17, .320)
4. Cubs 1969 (through August: 83-52, .615; afterward: 9-18, .333)
4. Braves 2011 (through August: 80-55, .593; afterward: 9-18, .333)
Notes: A collapse involves any club that would have made the playoffs at the end of August, yet fell short a month later. That certainly was the case for the 2011 Red Sox, who sat atop the AL East at the end of August, 31 games above .500. Their record was the best in the entire league, which made their subsequent collapse so mystifying. The Sox lost nine of their first 11 games in September — and 20 of 27 overall. The Yankees and Rays both passed Boston to grab the division’s two playoff slots.
Best title momentum
1. Orioles 1970 (through August: 86-47, .647; afterward: 22-7, .759)
2. Mets 1969 (through August: 76-54, .585; afterward: 24-8, .750)
3. Astros 2017 (through August: 80-53, .602; afterward: 21-8, .724)
4. Yankees 1978 (through August: 77-54, .588; afterward: 23-9, .719)
5. Blue Jays 1992 (through August: 75-57, .568; afterward: 21-9, .700)
Notes: The five clubs above all won world titles after playing .700 or better over the final month. They’re led by the Orioles, who had entered the 1969 World Series as heavy favorites, only to be shocked by the upstart Mets. They made sure there were no similar surprises in 1970, soaring 39 games above .500 by the end of August, then shifting into 22-7 warp speed in September. Baltimore won its final 11 games of the regular season, swept the Twins in the AL Championship Series, and trounced the Reds in a five-game World Series.
Worst title momentum
1. Cardinals 2006 (through August: 71-61, .538; afterward: 12-17, .414)
2. Yankees 2000 (through August: 74-56, .569; afterward: 13-18, .419)
3. Marlins 1997 (through August: 80-55, .593; afterward: 12-15, .444)
4. Royals 2015 (through August: 80-50, .615; afterward: 15-17, .469)
5. Athletics 1974 (through August: 76-57, .571; afterward: 14-15, .483)
Notes: The teams on this list all earned world titles, even though they played sub-.500 ball down the stretch. Anybody who watched the Cardinals stumble to a .414 pace in September 2006 would have found it difficult to imagine them winning a championship. They nearly coughed up a seven-game lead in the weak NL Central, finishing only a game and a half ahead of the Astros. Yet St. Louis somehow went 11-5 in the playoffs, subduing the Tigers in five games in the World Series.