Hitting the two-thirds mark
Will Guerrero or Ohtani be the AL’s MVP? And who’ll win the other awards?
Four months down, two to go.
The 2021 season has hit the two-thirds milestone. The pennant races are starting to sort themselves out, and so are the contests for baseball’s top awards.
If you’re a regular visitor to this space, you know that I’ve been using bases per out (BPO) to track the contenders for Most Valuable Player and Cy Young honors in each league.
BPO is exactly what it sounds like. It’s a ratio of the number of bases a player has reached (through hits, walks, hit batsmen, stolen bases, and sacrifices) and the number of outs he has made. The BPO for all big-league batters during the first four months of 2021 was .685.
That last figure is important, because it allows me to calculate each player’s base value (BV). I multiply a batter’s outs by .685, which tells me the number of bases an average player would have reached under the same circumstances. Then I determine the difference between that benchmark and the batter’s actual total.
An example: Toronto slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. made 261 outs between opening day and the end of July. A typical batter would have reached 179 bases in his shoes — .685 times 261 — but Guerrero piled up 307 bases. That gave him a base value of plus-128, good enough to lead all batters in both leagues.
The process works in reverse for pitchers. They aim for negative BVs, indicating that they’re surrendering fewer bases than their average counterpart.
I’ve been monitoring the base values for hitters to rank the American and National League MVP contenders, on the theory that pitchers are rarely given serious consideration for that award. (This year may be an exception, as we’ll see in a minute.) And I use pitching BVs to determine the Cy Young standings.
There’s a close MVP race in the AL, with Guerrero (128) just three bases ahead of the batting BV for the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani. But the latter, of course, is also a star pitcher, with a separate base value for that side of his job.
If we add the absolute values of Ohtani’s BVs for batting (plus-125) and pitching (minus-24), we wind up with 149, easily the best number for any player in the game. It’s not hard to envision Ohtani defeating Guerrero in their MVP face-off.
The other contests are less complicated. Fernando Tatis Jr. (plus-115 BV) is the frontrunner for National League MVP at the two-thirds pole, and Gerrit Cole (minus-61) and Brandon Woodruff (minus-103) are the leaders in the respective Cy Young races.
But there’s still plenty of time for things to change. Two months — the most pressure-filled two months — remain in the 2021 season. The standings will undoubtedly look considerably different when we make our final check in October.
Below are the top 10 rankings for all batters and pitchers in each league, followed by the team-by-team leaders on both sides of the ball. All base values are as of the morning of August 1.
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American League MVP
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays, 128
2. Shohei Ohtani, Angels, 125
3. Cedric Mullins, Orioles, 86
4. Matt Olson, Athletics, 83
5. Rafael Devers, Red Sox, 76
6. Joey Gallo, Rangers-Yankees, 65
7. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox, 62
8. Marcus Semien, Blue Jays, 59
9. Jose Altuve, Astros, 57
10. J.D. Martinez, Red Sox, 53
10. Jose Ramirez, Indians, 53
National League MVP
1. Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres, 115
2. Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves, 104
3. Max Muncy, Dodgers, 89
4. Bryce Harper, Phillies, 77
5. Freddie Freeman, Braves, 74
6. Juan Soto, Nationals, 71
7. Nick Castellanos, Reds, 68
8. Bryan Reynolds, Pirates, 65
9. Manny Machado, Padres, 63
9. Chris Taylor, Dodgers, 63
9. Trea Turner, Nationals-Dodgers, 63
9. Jesse Winker, Reds, 63
American League Cy Young
1. Gerrit Cole, Yankees, -61
2. Lance Lynn, White Sox, -54
3. Tyler Glasnow, Rays, -49
4. Carlos Rodon, White Sox, -46
5. Sean Manaea, Athletics, -45
6. Chris Bassitt, Athletics, -44
6. Kyle Gibson, Rangers, -44
6. John Means, Orioles, -44
9. Cole Irvin, Athletics, -42
10. Jose Berrios, Twins-Blue Jays, -41
National League Cy Young
1. Brandon Woodruff, Brewers, -103
2. Jacob deGrom, Mets, -95
3. Walker Buehler, Dodgers, -81
4. Kevin Gausman, Giants, -79
4. Zack Wheeler, Phillies, -79
6. Freddy Peralta, Brewers, -73
7. Corbin Burnes, Brewers, -65
8. Anthony DeSclafani, Giants, -62
9. Marcus Stroman, Mets, -52
10. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, -50
Team leaders
Angels: (B) Shohei Ohtani, 125; (P) Alex Cobb and Patrick Sandoval, -28
Astros: (B) Jose Altuve, 57; (P) Lance McCullers Jr., -38
Athletics: (B) Matt Olson, 83; (P) Sean Manaea, -45
Blue Jays: (B) Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 128; (P) Hyun Jin Ryu, -32
Braves: (B) Ronald Acuna Jr., 104; (P) Charlie Morton, -33
Brewers: (B) Willy Adames, 41; (P) Brandon Woodruff, -103
Cardinals: (B) Tyler O'Neill, 30; (P) Giovanny Gallegos, -43
Cubs: (B) Kris Bryant, 46; (P) Craig Kimbrel, -44
Diamondbacks: (B) Ketel Marte, 28; (P) Noe Ramirez, -15
Dodgers: (B) Max Muncy, 89; (P) Walker Buehler, -81
Giants: (B) Brandon Crawford, 58; (P) Kevin Gausman, -79
Indians: (B) Jose Ramirez, 53; (P) Emmanuel Clase, -31
Mariners: (B) Jake Fraley and Mitch Haniger, 30; (P) Kendall Graveman, -35
Marlins: (B) Starling Marte, 54; (P) Trevor Rogers, -41
Mets: (B) Pete Alonso, 32; (P) Jacob deGrom, -95
Nationals: (B) Juan Soto, 71; (P) Max Scherzer, -48
Orioles: (B) Cedric Mullins, 86; (P) John Means, -44
Padres: (B) Fernando Tatis Jr., 115; (P) Joe Musgrove, -48
Phillies: (B) Bryce Harper, 77; (P) Zack Wheeler, -79
Pirates: (B) Bryan Reynolds, 65; (P) Richard Rodriguez, -31
Rangers: (B) Joey Gallo, 69; (P) Kyle Gibson, -44
Rays: (B) Brandon Lowe, 40; (P) Tyler Glasnow, -49
Red Sox: (B) Rafael Devers, 76; (P) Matt Barnes, -30
Reds: (B) Nick Castellanos, 68; (P) Wade Miley, -36
Rockies: (B) C.J. Cron, 27; (P) German Marquez, -48
Royals: (B) Salvador Perez, 20; (P) Danny Duffy, -23
Tigers: (B) Robbie Grossman, 37; (P) Spencer Turnbull, -30
Twins: (B) Nelson Cruz, 54; (P) Jose Berrios, -41
White Sox: (B) Yasmani Grandal, 34; (P) Lance Lynn, -54
Yankees: (B) Aaron Judge, 51; (P) Gerrit Cole, -61