Preseason baseball forecasts are popping up all over the place — on websites, in newspapers, in magazines.
Some are anchored to detailed statistical analyses. Others are based on seat-of-the-pants balloting by sportswriters.
All are guaranteed to be deadly accurate in some respects, horribly off the mark in others. The same will undoubtedly be true of my annual forecasts, which will begin next week.
I’ll be employing a prediction system that I’ve used the past few years. It takes an unusual approach, looking back in time. My program compares each team’s record during the past three seasons (2022-2024) against the corresponding marks for every club that played during the era of free agency, which began in 1976.
The idea is to find parallels from the past that might offer hints about the future.
I’ll start next Tuesday, focusing on two divisions a week. The sixth and final installment of the package will be posted on March 14.
See you next week.
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