It’s time to get rid of the save (or at least clean it up)
An alternative suggests that Josh Hader is the true king of today’s relievers
Some of baseball’s statistics don’t make much sense.
The win, for example. Why must a starter work at least five innings to qualify for a W, when a reliever can get one by throwing a single pitch? (That was precisely the case for seven different relievers in 2019 and 2020 — one pitch, one win.)
Or the quality start, awarded to any starting pitcher who lasts at least six innings and yields no more than three earned runs. How is that a real measure of quality? (A six-inning, three-run appearance translates to a mediocre ERA of 4.50.)
Or fielding percentage. Does it tell us anything at all? (A great fielder finishes with a percentage in the .900s. So does a lousy fielder.)
Or the save.
It’s commonly assumed that a reliever is credited with a save only if he faces the potential tying run in the ninth inning and successfully prevents the opponent from scoring. It’s depicted as a well-deserved reward for shutting down the other side under extreme pressure.
The reality is considerably different. Baseball’s official rules award a save to any reliever who reaches the mound with his team ahead and finishes the game with the lead intact, provided that he qualifies under one of these three scenarios:
Enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches at least one inning.
Enters the game with the tying run in the on-deck circle, at the plate, or on the bases.
Pitches at least three innings.
This rule gives much wider latitude than the everyday fan assumes, which is why we are awash in saves. A total of 3,327 big-league games were played during the past two seasons, and saves were handed out at the end of almost half of them, 1,602. That’s an absurdly high number, especially since we know there weren’t that many tight contests.
The most ridiculous save of 2019-2020 was recorded on September 9 last year. Bryse Wilson strolled to the mound for the Braves at the start of the sixth inning. The Marlins had scored eight runs off the previous two pitchers, but nobody in the Atlanta dugout was too concerned. The Braves still held a 22-8 lead.
Wilson was far from perfect. He gave up four hits, a pair of walks, and an earned run. But he finished the game and locked down Atlanta’s 20-run victory, 29-9. The result — the first save in Wilson’s big-league career.
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Several other saves were almost as bizarre as Wilson’s. Zack Godley picked one up for the Diamondbacks on May 24, 2019, working the last three innings of an 18-2 win. Daniel Mengden pitched a similar three-inning stint for the Athletics on September 10, 2019, clinching a 21-7 victory. And Ross Stripling cleaned up for the Blue Jays on September 23, 2020, handling the last four innings of their 14-1 nailbiter over the Yankees.
These are admittedly extreme examples. But one of every 16 saves the past two seasons — 102 in all — wrapped up with a margin of four runs or more. Another 375 saves ended with the winning team ahead by the comfortable lead of three runs.
The instances cited above involved relievers who worked the final three innings of blowouts, qualifying under the third provision of the save rule. But strange outcomes are also possible under the first two stipulations.
Take the case of Rangers reliever Jose Leclerc, who was summoned with two outs in the ninth inning of an April 15, 2019, game against the Angels. Texas held a 12-7 lead, but Los Angeles had the bases loaded. Leclerc worked Zack Cozart to a full count, then induced a grounder to end the game.
The official scorer awarded Leclerc a save, which somehow seemed wrong. The Rangers’ lead hadn’t been under immediate threat. Texas would have remained ahead even if Cozart had smashed a grand slam. But the rule’s second stipulation says a save is warranted if the tying run is in the on-deck circle — which it was — and so Leclerc was correctly rewarded.
Even the classic understanding of a save — locking down a win by working the final inning — can be stretched to an extreme. Consider Archie Bradley’s performance for the Diamondbacks against the Padres on August 15 of last year.
Bradley entered the game with two outs in the eighth inning and quickly got the third out. He returned in the ninth to protect Arizona’s 7-3 lead — and that’s when things went haywire. Five of the seven batters got hits, including a pair of doubles, as the Padres narrowed the margin to 7-6. The final out was recorded when pinch runner Jorge Mateo was thrown out at home after Jurickson Profar’s single.
Bradley had surrendered three earned runs on five hits in an inning and a third, yet he had met the basic criteria. He was given a save.
Few saves are as messy as Bradley’s, but surprisingly few are pristine. A sizable majority of the relievers credited with saves in 2019 and 2020 — 923 of 1,602 — allowed runners to reach base.
It’s appealing to suggest that saves be handed out only when a reliever records at least three consecutive outs — bang-bang-bang — when the game is truly on the line. There were just 679 of these clean saves the past two years.
The most impressive instance occurred on April 7, 2019, when Milwaukee’s Josh Hader was summoned with one out in the seventh inning. The Brewers led the Cubs, 4-2, but Chicago had runners on first and third. Hader got Kris Bryant to pop up and then struck out Anthony Rizzo.
That would have spelled the end for most relievers in this era of specialization, but Hader returned in the eighth and ninth innings to register six more outs in succession, clinching Milwaukee’s win. It was the longest clean save of the two-year period.
Hader, in fact, is the reigning king of the clean save. He posted six that stretched across two or more innings in 2019 or 2020. The only other pitcher with more than one of these multi-inning outings was Seth Lugo with three.
Hader recorded a two-year grand total of 26 clean saves, defined as appearances that yielded at least three outs without a single runner reaching base. Only nine other relievers had more than 15:
1. Josh Hader, 26
2. Raisel Iglesias, 24
3. Liam Hendriks, 23
4. Brad Hand, 21
5. Alex Colome, 20
6. Kirby Yates, 19
7. Roberto Osuna, 18
8. Taylor Rogers, 17
9. Aroldis Chapman, 16
9. Hector Neris, 16
The clean save is an attractive alternative to the present save rule, though perhaps it’s a bit too stringent. But we can certainly agree that a change of some kind must be made. The save is supposed to be an indicator of high-leverage excellence in relief, but it currently falls well short of the mark.
Just ask Bryse Wilson or Archie Bradley.