Longest of expansion longshots
These seven markets may be relatively large, but they won’t be joining MLB
Major League Baseball is preparing to solicit bids for its next round of expansion. Not imminently, but probably within the next 12 to 18 months.
I mentioned last week that I’ve identified 37 American, Canadian, Caribbean, and Mexican markets that might be interested in joining the big leagues. All of these places share a pair of qualities: (1) a metropolitan population of at least 1 million and (2) a current lack of MLB representation.
But they differ remarkably in other respects, which is why I’ve developed a 100-point rating system to determine their relative suitability for expansion.
Each market’s score is based on an array of statistical factors, including metropolitan population, current minor-league affiliation (if any), distance to the closest big-league market, and average personal income. (Click here to learn more.)
I’m not going to explain the inner workings of the formula — a pointlessly dull exercise — but I will stress that it’s designed to provide only an approximation of each city’s odds of success. Previous expansion rounds have consistently confounded the experts, with some clubs becoming financial powerhouses and others struggling badly at the box office. (You know about the messes in Miami and Tampa, right?)
Today’s installment covers the seven cities with the lowest scores, numbers 31 through 37, the longest of longshots. (We’ll move up the ladder on succeeding Wednesdays.)
The following breakdowns include each market’s expansion score; its metropolitan population; its current level in organized baseball; its number of teams in the National Basketball Association, National Football League, and National Hockey League; its status in Major League Soccer (whose season is coincident with baseball’s); the closest existing MLB market (assuming that the Oakland Athletics move to Las Vegas); and the number of existing markets within 200 air miles.
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31. Salt Lake City
Expansion score: 51.66 points
Metro population: 1,266,191
Current baseball level: AAA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 1
MLS team: Yes
Closest MLB market: Las Vegas, 357 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 0
Bottom line: Salt Lake City has been making noises about applying for a big-league club in the upcoming round. It would fill MLB’s geographic hole between Denver and the West Coast. Yet its metropolitan population is 19 percent less than that of Milwaukee, the smallest market currently in the majors.
32. Buffalo
Expansion score: 48.89 points
Metro population: 1,161,192
Current baseball level: AAA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 2
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Toronto, 58 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 3
Bottom line: Buffalo is relatively small — and its population has been virtually stagnant for decades — yet it still was named one of six finalists in the 1993 expansion round (eventually losing out to Denver and Miami). It recently served as the temporary home of the Toronto Blue Jays during the Covid emergency (2020 and part of 2021).
33. Tucson
Expansion score: 47.59 points
Metro population: 1,057,597
Current baseball level: None
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 0
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Phoenix, 104 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 1
Bottom line: It may surprise you that Tucson, supposedly a minor city, has attained seven-figure status in metropolitan population. But it still isn’t large enough for major-league ball, and it’s still way too close to Phoenix.
34. New Orleans
Expansion score: 47.18 points
Metro population: 1,246,176
Current baseball level: None
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 2
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Houston, 315 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 0
Bottom line: New Orleans was a popular relocation option for big-league franchises half a century ago. The Indians even considered splitting their home schedule between Cleveland and Louisiana’s biggest city, though they never pulled the trigger. New Orleans’s appeal subsequently declined as several Sunbelt metros eclipsed its population.
35. Calgary
Expansion score: 46.69 points
Metro population: 1,481,806
Current baseball level: None
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 1
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Seattle, 445 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 0
Bottom line: Calgary fielded a team in the AAA Pacific Coast League for 18 years, but the Cannons shuffled off to Albuquerque (becoming the Isotopes) after the 2002 season. Things have been quiet on the baseball front since then.
36. Edmonton
Expansion score: 44.90 points
Metro population: 1,418,118
Current baseball level: None
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 1
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Seattle, 569 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 0
Bottom line: Edmonton is a hockey town, not a baseball town. It’s the smallest of the five Canadian metropolitan areas included in these rankings, and it has absolutely no chance of ever joining the big leagues.
37. San Juan
Expansion score: 43.64 points
Metro population: 2,043,941
Current baseball level: None
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 0
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Miami, 1,046 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 0
Bottom line: Puerto Ricans are rabidly interested in baseball, and they have a passing familiarity with the big-league brand. (Remember when San Juan served as the alternate home for the Montreal Expos in 2003 and 2004?) But the money simply isn’t there. San Juan’s per capita income is 75 percent below the U.S. average.