MVPs of the first half
Guerrero and Tatis have earned trophies so far, though three months remain
Schedules vary by team to team, so the baseball season has no precise halfway point. Not the end of June, not the Fourth of July, and certainly not the All-Star break.
I’ve chosen July 3 as my cutoff. Why? Because 90% of all big-league clubs — 27 of 30 — had reached the 81-game milestone (on a 162-game route) as of that date. Only the Indians, Mets, and Phillies were still short of the midpoint.
A look back at the first half suggests that two sons of big leaguers — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. — are the frontrunners for the Most Valuable Player Awards in their respective leagues.
I base my assertion on calculations of base value (BV), a stat that does a better job of measuring offensive ability than batting average, slugging percentage, or even the hallowed (and highly overrated) OPS.
Here’s how I determine a batter’s BV: I start by tabulating the number of bases reached through hits, walks, hit batsmen, stolen bases, sacrifice hits, and sacrifice flies. (The latter two are included because they gain bases for the team, if not the player himself.) Then I divide the resulting total of bases by the number of outs the batter made.
That yields an average known as BPO, bases per out. This year’s collective BPO for all big-league batters (as of July 3) is .678.
BV is then determined by multiplying a given batter’s outs by the norm for all batters, that BPO of .678. Guerrero, for example, made 207 outs in the first half of the season. A typical batter with 207 outs would have reached 140 bases, but the Blue Jays first baseman piled up 256, giving him an astronomical surplus of 116 bases. That’s his BV.
If you prefer layman’s terms, Guerrero has reached 116 more bases than the average big leaguer would have attained under the same conditions. That’s easily the highest total in the American League — worthy of MVP status, I think.
Second place in the AL belongs to Shohei Ohtani of the Angels, who has a batting BV of 104. Ohtani also pitches, of course, but his pitching BV is fairly insignificant (seven bases better than normal), still leaving him slightly behind Guerrero on my scale.
Tatis, who has a BV of 103, is the only National Leaguer above 100. The Padres shortstop holds a 10-base lead over Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Braves in the MVP race.
Base value, of course, is flipped on its head for anyone who takes the mound. A negative BV indicates that a pitcher has allowed fewer bases than the big-league average.
Jacob deGrom of the Mets has the best midseason base value on this side of the ball, giving up only 83 bases while collecting 256 outs. The typical big-league pitcher would have surrendered 173 bases under the same circumstances, yielding a BV of minus-90 for deGrom.
That’s an impressive number, yet it hasn’t given deGrom much of a lead in the National League Cy Young Award race. Right on his heels are Brandon Woodruff of the Brewers at minus-86 and Kevin Gausman of the Giants at minus-84.
The values in the American League aren’t nearly as strong. Atop the AL’s Cy Young standings are Kyle Gibson of the Rangers at minus-56 and Gerrit Cole of the Yankees at minus-54.
Below are the top 10 rankings for all batters and pitchers in each league, followed by the team-by-team BV leaders on both sides of the ball. All numbers, once again, are as of July 3.
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American League MVP
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays, 116
2. Shohei Ohtani, Angels, 104
3. Cedric Mullins, Orioles, 70
4. Joey Gallo, Rangers, 65
5. Marcus Semien, Blue Jays, 63
6. Matt Olson, Athletics, 62
7. Carlos Correa, Astros, 61
8. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox, 60
9. Rafael Devers, Red Sox, 58
10. Nelson Cruz, Twins, 55
National League MVP
1. Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres, 103
2. Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves, 93
3. Max Muncy, Dodgers, 71
4. Nick Castellanos, Reds, 69
5. Jesse Winker, Reds, 65
6. Bryan Reynolds, Pirates, 59
7. Kyle Schwarber, Nationals, 51
7. Trea Turner, Nationals, 51
9. Ozzie Albies, Braves, 50
10. Brandon Crawford, Giants, 45
10. Bryce Harper, Phillies, 45
American League Cy Young
1. Kyle Gibson, Rangers, -56
2. Gerrit Cole, Yankees, -54
3. Tyler Glasnow, Rays, -47
4. Lance Lynn, White Sox, -43
5. John Means, Orioles, -42
6. Carlos Rodon, White Sox, -40
7. Chris Bassitt, Athletics, -39
7. Yusei Kikuchi, Mariners, -39
9. Ryan Pressly, Astros, -34
10. Josh Fleming, Rays, -32
National League Cy Young
1. Jacob deGrom, Mets, -90
2. Brandon Woodruff, Brewers, -86
3. Kevin Gausman, Giants, -84
4. Zack Wheeler, Phillies, -76
5. Freddy Peralta, Brewers, -56
6. Walker Buehler, Dodgers, -52
6. Taijuan Walker, Mets, -52
8. Max Scherzer, Nationals, -50
9. Corbin Burnes, Brewers, -49
10. Anthony DeSclafani, Giants, -48
Team leaders
Angels: (B) Shohei Ohtani, 104; (P) Alex Cobb, -21
Astros: (B) Carlos Correa, 61; (P) Ryan Pressly, -34
Athletics: (B) Matt Olson, 62; (P) Chris Bassitt, -39
Blue Jays: (B) Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 116; (P) Joel Payamps and Hyun Jin Ryu, -16
Braves: (B) Ronald Acuna Jr., 93; (P) Ian Anderson, -34
Brewers: (B) Christian Yelich, 33; (P) Brandon Woodruff, -86
Cardinals: (B) Tyler O'Neill, 37; (P) Giovanny Gallegos, -38
Cubs: (B) Kris Bryant, 39; (P) Craig Kimbrel, -37
Diamondbacks: (B) Ketel Marte, 29; (P) Caleb Smith, -6
Dodgers: (B) Max Muncy, 71; (P) Walker Buehler, -52
Giants: (B) Brandon Crawford, 45; (P) Kevin Gausman, -84
Indians: (B) Jose Ramirez, 45; (P) Emmanuel Clase, -25
Mariners: (B) Jake Fraley, 36; (P) Yusei Kikuchi, -39
Marlins: (B) Starling Marte, 35; (P) Sandy Alcantara and Trevor Rogers, -43
Mets: (B) Pete Alonso, 19; (P) Jacob deGrom, -90
Nationals: (B) Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner, 51; (P) Max Scherzer, -50
Orioles: (B) Cedric Mullins, 70; (P) John Means, -42
Padres: (B) Fernando Tatis Jr., 103; (P) Joe Musgrove, -44
Phillies: (B) Bryce Harper, 45; (P) Zack Wheeler, -76
Pirates: (B) Bryan Reynolds, 59; (P) Richard Rodriguez, -30
Rangers: (B) Joey Gallo, 65; (P) Kyle Gibson, -56
Rays: (B) Austin Meadows, 28; (P) Tyler Glasnow, -47
Red Sox: (B) Xander Bogaerts, 60; (P) Nathan Eovaldi, -27
Reds: (B) Nick Castellanos, 69; (P) Wade Miley, -40
Rockies: (B) Trevor Story, 25; (P) German Marquez, -38
Royals: (B) Whit Merrifield, 31; (P) Kyle Zimmer, -21
Tigers: (B) Akil Baddoo, 35; (P) Spencer Turnbull, -29
Twins: (B) Nelson Cruz, 55; (P) Jose Berrios, -15
White Sox: (B) Yasmani Grandal, 35; (P) Lance Lynn, -43
Yankees: (B) Aaron Judge, 51; (P) Gerrit Cole, -54