NL Central 2022 forecast
Another St. Louis-Milwaukee dogfight looms, with the Cardinals emerging on top
The Cardinals were a disappointment for most of the 2021 season.
St. Louis found itself stuck in third place in the National League Central Division on the morning of September 1, mired 12.5 games behind the frontrunning Milwaukee Brewers. The divisional title was clearly out of reach, and even a wild-card berth seemed unlikely.
But the Cards picked up serious momentum down the stretch, winning 23 of their final 32 games, including an awe-inspiring 17 victories in a row. They stunned the experts by qualifying for one of the NL’s playoff slots.
My computer envisions another positive result in 2022, bringing St. Louis its fourth consecutive postseason appearance, though presumably without all of the late-season theatrics.
The Cardinals rank first in my NL Central projections, which are based on comparisons of records from the previous three seasons against the corresponding marks for every big-league club that played during the era of free agency, which began in 1976.
The key is to find parallels from the past that offer hints about the future for each of the five NL Central clubs — an analysis based purely on history, not on roster composition or offseason acquisitions.
The outcome is best for the 2019-2021 Cardinals, who bear an uncanny resemblance to the 1979-1981 Red Sox, as you can see below. Here are the win-loss records, winning percentages, and team scores (TS) for those Boston clubs. (Team score, as you know, is a rating on a 100-point scale. It’s based on four factors: winning percentage, the differential between runs scored and allowed per game, the differential between bases per out attained by batters and allowed by pitchers, and postseason success.)
1979: 91-69, .569, TS 59.765
1980: 83-77, .519, TS 48.585
1981: 59-49, .546, TS 52.456
And here are the corresponding — and remarkably similar — stats for the most recent versions of the Cardinals:
2019: 91-71, .562, TS 56.847
2020: 30-28, .517, TS 48.121
2021: 90-72, .556, TS 53.496
I pinpointed the five closest matches for each current NL Central team. You can find them listed in the summary below. Each is identified by the final year of its three-year span (such as the 1981 Red Sox for the Cardinals) and is listed with its record for that season.
I took each club’s five matches and averaged their results for subsequent seasons. (How, for example, did the Red Sox fare in 1982, 1983, and 1984?) The resulting team scores yielded the predicted standings.
My computer envisions St. Louis and Milwaukee fighting it out in 2022 — if, of course, the season is actually played — with the Cards emerging on top:
1. St. Louis Cardinals (91-71), TS 58.870
2. Milwaukee Brewers (88-74), TS 58.701
3. Cincinnati Reds (82-80), TS 48.455
4. Chicago Cubs (79-83), TS 44.731
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (74-88), TS 38.512
All five of the Cardinals’ matches posted winning percentages of .525 or better in their first subsequent seasons. Two made the playoffs, with the 2016 Indians going all the way to Game Seven of the World Series. That’s excellent news for St. Louis.
The longer picture is a bit more muddled. Predictions for an upcoming season can be iffy enough, of course, but I offer my 2023 and 2024 projections purely for amusement value. The computer says that the Cards will repeat in ’23 and the Cubs will rebound to first place in ’24. Take it for what you will.
The five NL Central teams are shown in predicted order below. Each is followed by its 2021 record, its five closest matches, the subsequent performances of the top two matches, and my formula’s predictions for 2022, 2023, and 2024.
We’ll move on to the NL West next week.
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1. St. Louis Cardinals
2021 record: 90-72
2021 TS: 53.496; TS rank: 11 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Red Sox 1981 (59-49, TS 52.456); 2. Orioles 1996 (88-74, TS 53.175); 3. Phillies 2003 (86-76, TS 55.176); 4. Dodgers 2002 (92-70, TS 55.379); 5. Indians 2015 (81-80, TS 50.485)
What happened to top two matches: The Red Sox played decently after 1981 — finishing three of the next four seasons at .500 or better — but they didn’t make the playoffs a single time. Then came their epic World Series appearance in 1986, which they lost to the Mets in seven games. The Orioles won the AL East in 1997, but then endured a 14-year postseason drought.
2022 prediction: 91-71, TS 58.870 (Division: 1 of 5; MLB: 2 of 30)
2023 prediction: 88-74, TS 55.811 (Division: 1 of 5; MLB: 4 of 30)
2024 prediction: 82-80, TS 49.748 (Division: 2 of 5; MLB: 11 of 30)
2. Milwaukee Brewers
2021 record: 95-67
2021 TS: 60.272; TS rank: 8 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Cardinals 1981 (59-43, TS 60.148); 2. Padres 2006 (88-74, TS 61.246); 3. Astros 1997 (84-78, TS 59.091); 4. Rangers 1981 (57-48, TS 56.719); 5. Red Sox 1998 (92-70, TS 62.640)
What happened to top two matches: Talk about irony. The Cardinals won a seven-game World Series in 1982 — beating the Brewers. Two more World Series appearances (both ending in defeat) followed in the subsequent five years for St. Louis. The Padres could not sustain their 2006 success, missing the postseason in each of the next 13 seasons.
2022 prediction: 88-74, TS 58.701 (Division: 2 of 5; MLB: 3 of 30)
2023 prediction: 80-82, TS 46.148 (Division: 2 of 5; MLB: 10 of 30)
2024 prediction: 77-85, TS 39.686 (Division: 4 of 5; MLB: 20 of 30)
3. Cincinnati Reds
2021 record: 83-79
2021 TS: 48.109; TS rank: 13 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Twins 1977 (84-77, TS 50.544); 2. Tigers 1979 (85-76, TS 50.040); 3. Royals 1988 (84-77, TS 52.388); 4. Giants 1982 (87-75, TS 47.946); 5. Expos 1988 (81-81, TS 48.139)
What happened to top two matches: The Twins struggled for a decade after 1977, finishing above .500 only once before miraculously winning the 1987 World Series. The Tigers were consistently strong in their subsequent decade, staying above .500 nine seasons in a row, taking the 1984 world title as their biggest prize.
2022 prediction: 82-80, TS 48.455 (Division: 3 of 5; MLB: 11 of 30)
2023 prediction: 80-82, TS 42.885 (Division: 3 of 5; MLB: 18 of 30)
2024 prediction: 75-87, TS 39.263 (Division: 5 of 5; MLB: 23 of 30)
4. Chicago Cubs
2021 record: 71-91
2021 TS: 32.261; TS rank: 26 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Reds 1989 (75-87, TS 32.947); 2. Expos 1991 (71-90, TS 32.291); 3. Rockies 2019 (71-91, TS 29.972); 4. Yankees 1989 (74-87, TS 31.965); 5. Red Sox 1992 (73-89, TS 32.636)
What happened to top two matches: Nobody saw it coming, but the Reds bounced up from fifth place in 1989 to win the World Series in 1990 — a four-game sweep of the vaunted Oakland Athletics, no less. The Expos were on their way up, too. Their winning percentages from 1992 to 1994 were .537, then .580, then .649. But the 1994 labor dispute wiped out a seemingly guaranteed playoff spot.
2022 prediction: 79-83, TS 44.731 (Division: 4 of 5; MLB: 14 of 30)
2023 prediction: 78-84, TS 40.065 (Division: 4 of 5; MLB: 22 of 30)
2024 prediction: 92-70, TS 59.507 (Division: 1 of 5; MLB: 3 of 30)
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
2021 record: 61-101
2021 TS: 21.054; TS rank: 28 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Orioles 2010 (66-96, TS 21.513); 2. Nationals 2009 (59-103, TS 19.467); 3. Pirates 2007 (68-94, TS 21.338); 4. Orioles 2019 (54-108, TS 21.747); 5. Devil Rays 2007 (66-96, TS 24.089)
What happened to top two matches: The Orioles finished last in the AL East in 2011 for the fourth straight year, but then took flight. They qualified for the playoffs three times between 2012 and 2016. The Nationals stayed at the bottom of the NL East in 2010 before stirring themselves. They made five postseason appearances between 2012 and 2019, capping that span with a world title.
2022 prediction: 74-88, TS 38.512 (Division: 5 of 5; MLB: 23 of 30)
2023 prediction: 74-88, TS 36.929 (Division: 5 of 5; MLB: 24 of 30)
2024 prediction: 84-78, TS 47.253 (Division: 3 of 5; MLB: 15 of 30)