NL Central 2023 forecast

Aren’t the Cardinals and Cubs solid favorites for the title? Not necessarily

Feb 14, 2023

If we’re choosing the team that’s most likely to win this year’s crown in the National League’s Central Division, the best place to begin is St. Louis.

The Cardinals always seem to be the favorite, and with good reason. They’ve won 11 divisional titles since the turn of the century, and they’ve taken second place on seven other occasions.

That’s a total of 18 finishes in the NL Central’s top two positions during the past 23 seasons, including last year’s triumph by seven games over the second-place Milwaukee Brewers. Why wouldn’t any self-respecting analyst pick St. Louis to win again in 2023?

A few experts are bucking the trend by making Chicago their divisional choice. The Cubs have been free spenders during the offseason, acquiring one of the year’s top free agents, shortstop Dansby Swanson, as well as outfielders Cody Bellinger and Trey Mancini, first baseman Eric Hosmer, catcher Tucker Barnhart, and pitchers Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly. Shouldn’t such a haul set them up for a title run?

My computer responds negatively to the questions in both preceding paragraphs. It prefers the Brewers in 2023. Yes, the Brewers.

My forecasting system matched the 2020-2022 performance of each NL Central club against the three-year records for 1,258 teams from the free-agent era, which began in 1976. It then evaluated the subsequent records of the 50 closest matches (CMs) for each current club. (Click here to learn more.)

Twenty-two of Milwaukee’s 50 CMs qualified for the playoffs in their next seasons, squeaking past the Cardinals’ total of 21 postseason matches.

That installs the Brewers as (very) slight favorites, and why not? If you ignore 2020’s truncated schedule, recent championships in the NL Central have been evenly split between St. Louis (2019 and 2022) and Milwaukee (2018 and 2021). A dead heat in 2023 is entirely plausible.

More surprising is my formula’s choice for third place, the Cincinnati Reds, who had five CMs make the playoffs. They’re followed by the Cubs (four playoff matches) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (three).

That leaves us with these projected 2023 standings for the NL Central:

1. Brewers
2. Cardinals
3. Reds
4. Cubs
5. Pirates

You’ll find breakdowns for all five teams below. Each summary begins with the club’s 2022 record, accompanied by postseason abbreviations (if applicable) of P for a playoff berth, L for a league championship, and W for a world title. Then come the cumulative results (in the next season) for the 50 closest matches for a given franchise (based on my 2020-2022 comparison), followed by a list of the five very best CMs with their subsequent records.

If you want to know more about this forecast, you’ll find details in the newly published Baseball’s Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook.

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1. Milwaukee Brewers

2022 record: 86-76 (.531)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 4 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 22 of 50
CM #1: Red Sox (1987-1989); 1990 record: 88-74 (.543, P)
CM #2: Reds (1998-2000); 2001 record: 66-96 (.407)
CM #3: Astros (2000-2002); 2003 record: 87-75 (.537)
CM #4: Dodgers (1999-2001); 2002 record: 92-70 (.568)
CM #5: Orioles (1993-1995); 1996 record: 88-74 (.543, P)

2. St. Louis Cardinals

2022 record: 93-69 (.574, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 6 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 21 of 50
CM #1: Royals (1987-1989); 1990 record: 75-86 (.466)
CM #2: Twins (2002-2004); 2005 record: 83-79 (.512)
CM #3: Rays (2017-2019); 2020 record: 40-20 (.667, LP)
CM #4: Astros (2002-2004); 2005 record: 89-73 (.549, LP)
CM #5: Twins (2008-2010); 2011 record: 63-99 (.389)

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3. Cincinnati Reds

2022 record: 62-100 (.383)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 5 of 50
CM #1: Angels (1990-1992); 1993 record: 71-91 (.438)
CM #2: Expos (2002-2004); 2005 record: 81-81 (.500)
CM #3: Padres (1991-1993); 1994 record: 47-70 (.402)
CM #4: Mariners (1990-1992); 1993 record: 82-80 (.506)
CM #5: White Sox (2011-2013); 2014 record: 73-89 (.451)

4. Chicago Cubs

2022 record: 74-88 (.457)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 0 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 4 of 50
CM #1: Mets (2016-2018); 2019 record: 86-76 (.531)
CM #2: Giants (2004-2006); 2007 record: 71-91 (.438)
CM #3: Brewers (2014-2016); 2017 record: 86-76 (.531)
CM #4: White Sox (1977-1979); 1980 record: 70-90 (.438)
CM #5: Blue Jays (2011-2013); 2014 record: 83-79 (.512)

5. Pittsburgh Pirates

2022 record: 62-100 (.383)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 2 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 3 of 50
CM #1: Orioles (2009-2011); 2012 record: 93-69 (.574, P)
CM #2: Braves (1977-1979); 1980 record: 81-80 (.503)
CM #3: Twins (2011-2013); 2014 record: 70-92 (.432)
CM #4: Pirates (2006-2008); 2009 record: 62-99 (.385)
CM #5: Twins (1981-1983); 1984 record: 81-81 (.500)

Baseball’s Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook

A complete rundown of 2022 stats — and a look ahead at the season to come