Please allow a brief brag.
Almost all of the experts picked the St. Louis Cardinals to win the National League Central last year. CBS Sports, for example, convened a panel of six baseball reporters. Five chose St. Louis. ESPN’s preview put the Cards atop what it called “a soft division.” The Sporting News agreed.
My computer formula dared to dissent, establishing Milwaukee as the divisional favorite. And the Brewers, of course, went on to win the NL Central by a nine-game margin. The Cardinals finished last.
I make no claim to clairvoyance. My history-based prediction system has issued a few clunkers since 2021, but that’s not the issue here.
What’s important is the upcoming 2024 season, in which my formula once again defies the consensus by picking Milwaukee in the National League Central, even though the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds seem to be more popular with the betting public.
So be it.
My formula matched the three-year records (2021-2023) of all five NL Central clubs against the corresponding marks for 1,288 teams since the advent of free agency in 1976.
It identified the 50 closest matches (CMs) for each current team — the 50 clubs from the past whose three-year records essentially mirrored those of a present-day member of the NL Central.
The subsequent performances of those 50 teams should suggest to us how each division member will perform in the year ahead. (In theory, at least.)
Here’s how the Brewers’ 50 CMs fared in their next seasons:
Topped .500: 34
Qualified for the playoffs: 19
Won the league title: 6
Won the World Series: 2
I assigned ascending scores to the ladder’s four rungs — one point for topping .500 up to four points for winning a world title. That gives Milwaukee a total of 98 points, easily the highest sum in the division.
Here are the NL Central’s predicted standings:
1. Milwaukee Brewers, 98 points
2. Chicago Cubs, 85 points
3. St. Louis Cardinals, 56 points
4. Cincinnati Reds, 28 points
5. Pittsburgh Pirates, 28 points
A tie-breaker gives Cincinnati the edge over Pittsburgh for fourth place. The CMs for both clubs failed to win a single world title, but the Reds had the slightest of advantages on the next rung (one league title to none).
Scroll down to see each team’s forecast, including its 2023 record, the combined performances of its 50 CMs, and specific breakdowns of the five matches that came the closest of all. Be sure to check the subsequent season for each match. (These are the abbreviations: W indicates a World Series winner, L a league champion, and P a playoff qualifier.)
Next week: the National League West.
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1. Milwaukee Brewers
2024 prediction points: 98
2023 record: 92-70 (.568, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 2 of 50
Won league title in next season: 6 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 19 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 34 of 50
CM #1: Red Sox (1988-1990) — 1991 record of 84-78 (.519)
CM #2: Braves (2005-2007) — 2008 record of 72-90 (.444)
CM #3: Dodgers (2006-2008) — 2009 record of 95-67 (.586, P)
CM #4: Dodgers (2000-2002) — 2003 record of 85-77 (.525)
CM #5: Orioles (1975-1977) — 1978 record of 90-71 (.559)
2. Chicago Cubs
2024 prediction points: 85
2023 record: 83-79 (.512)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 2 of 50
Won league title in next season: 5 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 15 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 32 of 50
CM #1: Brewers (2015-2017) — 2018 record of 96-67 (.589, P)
CM #2: Rangers (2007-2009) — 2010 record of 90-72 (.556, LP)
CM #3: Tigers (1976-1978) — 1979 record of 85-76 (.528)
CM #4: Rockies (2015-2017) — 2018 record of 91-72 (.558, P)
CM #5: Diamondbacks (2005-2007) — 2008 record of 82-80 (.506)
3. St. Louis Cardinals
2024 prediction points: 56
2023 record: 71-91 (.438)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 3 of 50
Won league title in next season: 4 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 6 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 20 of 50
CM #1: Mets (2007-2009) — 2010 record of 79-83 (.488)
CM #2: Cubs (2019-2021) — 2022 record of 74-88 (.457)
CM #3: Dodgers (2003-2005) — 2006 record of 88-74 (.543, P)
CM #4: Reds (1987-1989) — 1990 record of 91-71 (.562, WLP)
CM #5: Red Sox (2010-2012) — 2013 record of 97-65 (.599, WLP)
4. Cincinnati Reds
2024 prediction points: 28
2023 record: 82-80 (.506)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 5 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 15 of 50
CM #1: Expos/Nationals (2003-2005) — 2006 record of 71-91 (.438)
CM #2: Reds (2000-2002) — 2003 record of 69-93 (.426)
CM #3: White Sox (1985-1987) — 1988 record of 71-90 (.441)
CM #4: Astros (1974-1976) — 1977 record of 81-81 (.500)
CM #5: Reds (1996-1998) — 1999 record of 96-67 (.589)
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
2024 prediction points: 28
2023 record: 76-86 (.469)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 0 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 7 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 14 of 50
CM #1: Royals (2009-2011) — 2012 record of 72-90 (.444)
CM #2: Mariners (1980-1982) — 1983 record of 60-102 (.370)
CM #3: Mariners (2010-2012) — 2013 record of 71-91 (.438)
CM #4: White Sox (2017-2019) — 2020 record of 35-25 (.583, P)
CM #5: Royals (2018-2020) — 2021 record of 74-88 (.457)