NL Central’s hottest/coldest players for 2024
Burnes is gone, while Bellinger (finally) gets a deal to stick around
It proved to be an unsettled winter for the best players in the National League Central.
Corbin Burnes, the pitching ace for the Milwaukee Brewers, led the division with an overall base value (OBV) of plus-90 in 2023. The runner-up was Cody Bellinger, a center fielder and first baseman for the Chicago Cubs, whose OBV of plus-78 stamped him as the Central’s top-rated position player.
So how was their excellence rewarded? Burnes was traded to the Baltimore Orioles on February 1, while Bellinger endured months of free-agent uncertainty before he finally signed a new deal with the Cubs.
OBV compares a player’s performance to the major-league average for the same season. Burnes, for example, surrendered 90 fewer bases to opposing batters than the typical pitcher would have allowed under the same circumstances last year. Bellinger reached 78 more bases than the typical hitter would have attained. (Click here to learn more about OBV.)
The theory, of course, is that any player who racked up a strongly positive OBV in 2023 is likely to do well in 2024. Momentum and all that.
Burnes embodied this principle last year. He had posted an OBV of plus-81 in 2022 — third-best in the NL Central — and then rose to the top spot in 2023.
Bellinger, on the other hand, defied the odds. He batted a miserable .210 for the Los Angeles Dodgers in ’22, giving him an equally miserable OBV of minus-17. That means he reached 17 fewer bases than the average major leaguer would have gotten in the same number of appearances. His strong rebound with the Cubs in ‘23 was totally unexpected.
Look below for a pair of OBV lists. The first shows the NL Central players who posted the best performances in 2023, while the second contains the worst.
The divisional tailender, Adam Wainwright, will also be absent in 2024, having retired from the St. Louis Cardinals. His OBV of minus-88 sent a powerful signal that his 18-year career had come to an end.
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Best OBV in NL Central (2023)
1. Corbin Burnes, Brewers, OBV 90
2. Cody Bellinger, Cubs, OBV 78
3. Justin Steele, Cubs, OBV 64
4. Christian Yelich, Brewers, OBV 63
4. TJ Friedl, Reds, OBV 63
6. Spencer Steer, Reds, OBV 58
7. Ian Happ, Cubs, OBV 53
7. Will Benson, Reds, OBV 53
9. Jack Suwinski, Pirates, OBV 52
9. Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals, OBV 52
Worst OBV in NL Central (2023)
1. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals, OBV -88
2. Luke Weaver, Reds, OBV -71
3. Drew Smyly, Cubs, OBV -48
4. Hunter Greene, Reds, OBV -46
5. Brice Turang, Brewers, OBV -44
5. Eric Lauer, Brewers, OBV -44
7. Austin Hedges, Pirates, OBV -43
8. Drew Rom, Cardinals, OBV -42
8. Jake Woodford, Cardinals, OBV -42
10. Quinn Priester, Pirates, OBV -41