Last season was supposed to be a turning point for the Mets.
New York’s National League franchise had been purchased by hedge-fund manager Steve Cohen in November 2020, and he was expected to reach deep into his pockets to revitalize the franchise in 2021.
Cohen’s first major transaction appeared to confirm those hopes, with the Mets acquiring superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor from Cleveland in January, then signing him to a 10-year, $341 million extension in late March.
Toss in the pitching greatness of Jacob deGrom, the slugging prowess of Pete Alonso, and the midseason pickup of Javier Baez, and the Mets seemed invincible.
They were far from it, of course. Only Alonso (37 home runs) delivered as promised. Lindor slumped badly to a .230 average, deGrom made only 15 starts before injuries ended his season, and Baez arrived too late to be of much help.
The Mets swooned to a 77-85 record, putting them in third place in the NL East Division — extending their playoff drought to five years.
The Atlanta Braves received much less publicity than the Mets as the 2021 season began, but they succeeded to a much greater extent. They won the division title for the fourth straight year, then swept through the playoffs and emerged victorious in the World Series. It was their first championship in 26 years.
The Braves were easily the class of the NL East, as reflected by their team score of 73.126. TS, which is calculated on a 100-point scale, is based on a club’s winning percentage, its differential between runs scored and allowed per game, its differential between bases per out (BPO) attained by batters and allowed by pitchers, and its postseason success (if any).
Today’s review of the NL East begins with 2021’s TS rankings. The Braves, as you can see, finished miles ahead of the pack, while the Mets, despite their great expectations, were buried in third place with a mediocre score slightly below 43 points:
1. Atlanta Braves (88-73), 73.126 TS
2. Philadelphia Phillies (82-80), 46.864
3. New York Mets (77-85), 42.744
4. Miami Marlins (67-95), 33.754
5. Washington Nationals (65-97), 32.604
Let’s continue below with a look back at the best (and worst) clubs and players in the NL East in six categories.
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Team batting
The Braves’ 2021 batting order was built around first baseman Freddie Freeman, the National League’s Most Valuable Player in 2020. But he was far from alone. Three other Atlanta batters — Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, and Ozzie Albies — posted base values (BV) greater than 50, indeed a solid number.
BV, as you may recall, is calculated in three steps: (1) Count the number of bases a batter attains through hits, walks, hit batsmen, stolen bases, and sacrifices. (2) Total up the number of outs he makes. (3) Compare his bases to the number that an average big-league hitter would have reached with the same number of outs.
Freeman, for example, attained 405 bases and made 436 outs. The major-league average for 2021 was .690 bases per out (BPO), which means that a batter with 436 outs should have piled up 301 bases. Freeman finished 104 above that benchmark, giving him an impressive BV of plus-104.
We can calculate BV for teams, too, and it comes as no surprise that the powerful Braves easily led the division in BPO (.729 vs. .712 for the runnerup Nationals) and in base value:
1. Braves, 164 BV
2. Nationals, 96
3. Phillies, 30
4. Mets, -146
5. Marlins, -288
Individual batting (best)
Any base value that’s expressed in triple digits is extraordinary, so there is no way that Freeman’s plus-104 can be downplayed.
Except to say this: It wasn’t anywhere close to being the best in the NL East. Bryce Harper of the Phillies justifiably succeeded Freeman as MVP with a league-topping BV of plus-177. Harper’s BPO of 1.184 was almost 500 points better than the big-league average!
Washington’s Juan Soto was second-best in the league — and, of course, the division — in both categories with a BPO of 1.129 and a BV of plus-167. Here are the NL East’s top five:
1. Bryce Harper, Phillies, 177 BV
2. Juan Soto, Nationals, 167
3. Freddie Freeman, Braves, 104
4. Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves, 102
5. Austin Riley, Braves, 88
Individual batting (worst)
It was a rough year for catchers in the NL East. Sandy Leon of the Marlins batted an anemic .183 in a part-time role and reached 45 fewer bases than the average big-league batter. His resulting BV of minus-45 was the worst in the division.
The two runnersup on the list of the division’s lowest base values — Philadelphia’s Andrew Knapp and New York’s James McCann — also handled catching duties for their clubs. The bottom five:
1. Sandy Leon, Marlins, -45 BV
2. Andrew Knapp, Phillies, -42
3. James McCann, Mets, -41
4. Ronald Torreyes, Phillies, -38
5. Alec Bohm, Phillies, -37
Team pitching
BV, as you know by now, can work both ways. It’s as good a measure of pitching effectiveness as of batting efficiency.
The one difference is the scale. Hitters want the highest BV possible, while pitchers prefer to dwell in negative numbers.
This is the category where the generally disappointing Mets did their best in 2021. Their collective earned-run average (3.90) was a touch worse than the Braves’ ERA of 3.88. But New York led the NL East in several other categories, including least walks allowed (475 vs. Atlanta’s 516), fewest hits and walks per inning (1.230 vs. 1.242) and best base value.
The Mets’ pitchers surrendered 126 fewer bases than the big-league average, barely edging the Braves. Four of the five NL East teams finished with negative BVs:
1. Mets, -126
2. Braves, -123
3. Marlins, -58
4. Phillies, -29
5. Nationals, 284
Individual pitching (best)
Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer were en route to being the class of all NL East pitchers in 2021, but both were sidetracked.
DeGrom posted a dazzling base value of minus-96, which would have finished the season as the best mark in three of the other five divisions. And he piled up that amazing number in just 15 starts! Injuries prevented him from doing more.
Scherzer was minus-49 for the Nationals as of late July, heading to a solid seasonal total of minus-106. But he spent the final two months with the Dodgers, so only his Washington numbers count here.
The overall winner was Zack Wheeler, whose BV of minus-121 was the very best in the majors, a tribute to his league-leading durability (213 innings) and his sharp 2.78 ERA. Here are the five leading BVs in the NL East:
1. Zack Wheeler, Phillies, -121 BV
2. Jacob deGrom, Mets, -96
3. Charlie Morton, Braves, -83
4. Ranger Suarez, Phillies, -81
5. Sandy Alcantara, Marlins, -71
Individual pitching (worst)
Patrick Corbin was an important addition to Washington’s pitching staff in 2019. His 14-7 performance was instrumental in the Nationals’ drive to the world title.
But 2021 was a much different story. Corbin went a dismal 9-16, leading the majors in losses. His ERA was an astronomical 5.82, and he gave up 37 home runs, the highest total in the National League.
It comes as no shock that he also posted the worst base value in the NL East, surrendering 76 more bases than the average pitcher under the same circumstances. These are the division’s five worst:
1. Patrick Corbin, Nationals, 76
2. Erick Fedde, Nationals, 46
3. Matt Moore, Phillies, 43
3. Vince Velasquez, Phillies, 43
5. Jon Lester, Nationals, 40