NL East 2024 forecast
The Braves and Phillies prepare for a dogfight, while everyone else watches
A great race is in store for the National League East in 2024.
Well, let me clarify. There should be a great race between two of the division’s five clubs, the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. The other three teams will essentially serve as bystanders, watching placidly from a considerable distance.
That’s the forecast from my history-based prediction system, which compares the three-year records (2021-2023) of current clubs against the corresponding performances of 1,288 teams dating back to the advent of free agency in 1976.
My computer sifted through nearly half a century of data to isolate the 50 closest matches for each present-day team — that is, the 50 clubs from the past whose three-year records essentially mirrored those of a current member of the NL East.
The subsequent performances of the 50 closest matches (CM) should — theoretically, at least — give us an idea of how each division member will perform in the year ahead.
Here’s an example: The 2021-2023 Braves matched most closely with the 2009-2011 Phillies, who slipped to a .500 record in 2012. That’s not a particularly good omen for the 2024 Braves, though I hastily note that the next eight clubs on Atlanta’s match list all qualified for the playoffs, starting with the Braves’ second-ranked CM, the 2001-2003 New York Yankees, who won 101 games in 2004.
Here’s how the Braves’ 50 CMs fared in their subsequent seasons:
Topped .500: 40
Qualified for the playoffs: 27
Won the league title: 8
Won the World Series: 2
I’ve awarded ascending scores to the four rungs of this ladder — one point for exceeding .500 up to four points for a world title. Atlanta earns a total of 126 points. That’s the highest sum in the division, though not by much. Philadelphia is just four points behind.
Here are the predicted standings, based on each club’s collective score from its 50 CMs:
1. Atlanta Braves, 126 points
2. Philadelphia Phillies, 122 points
3. New York Mets, 57 points
4. Miami Marlins, 39 points
5. Washington Nationals, 16 points
Scroll down to see each team’s forecast, including its 2023 record, the combined performances of its 50 CMs, and specific breakdowns of the five matches that come the closest of all. Be sure to check the subsequent season for each match. (I use these abbreviations: W indicates a World Series winner, L a league champion, and P a playoff qualifier.)
Next week: the National League Central.
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1. Atlanta Braves
2024 prediction points: 126
2023 record: 104-58 (.642, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 2 of 50
Won league title in next season: 8 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 27 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 40 of 50
CM #1: Phillies (2009-2011) — 2012 record of 81-81 (.500)
CM #2: Yankees (2001-2003) — 2004 record of 101-61 (.623, P)
CM #3: Giants (2000-2002) — 2003 record of 100-61 (.621, P)
CM #4: Cardinals (2011-2013) — 2014 record of 90-72 (.556, P)
CM #5: Yankees (2000-2002) — 2003 record of 101-61 (.623, LP)
2. Philadelphia Phillies
2024 prediction points: 122
2023 record: 90-72 (.556, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 4 of 50
Won league title in next season: 8 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 22 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 38 of 50
CM #1: Astros (1993-1995) — 1996 record of 82-80 (.506)
CM #2: Pirates (2012-2014) — 2015 record of 98-64 (.605, P)
CM #3: Rays (2009-2011) — 2012 record of 90-72 (.556)
CM #4: Reds (2011-2013) — 2014 record of 76-86 (.469)
CM #5: Pirates (1974-1976) — 1977 record of 96-66 (.593)
3. New York Mets
2024 prediction points: 57
2023 record: 75-87 (.463)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 2 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 11 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 25 of 50
CM #1: Dodgers (1984-1986) — 1987 record of 73-89 (.451)
CM #2: Astros (1985-1987) — 1988 record of 82-80 (.506)
CM #3: Orioles (2013-2015) — 2016 record of 89-73 (.549, P)
CM #4: Rangers (1995-1997) — 1998 record of 88-74 (.543, P)
CM #5: Braves (1982-1984) — 1985 record of 66-96 (.407)
4. Miami Marlins
2024 prediction points: 39
2023 record: 84-78 (.519, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 9 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 18 of 50
CM #1: Cubs (1975-1977) — 1978 record of 79-83 (.488)
CM #2: Angels (1975-1977) — 1978 record of 87-75 (.537)
CM #3: Mariners (1988-1990) — 1991 record of 83-79 (.512)
CM #4: Indians (1977-1979) — 1980 record of 79-81 (.494)
CM #5: Reds (2004-2006) — 2007 record of 72-90 (.444)
5. Washington Nationals
2024 prediction points: 16
2023 record: 71-91 (.438)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 2 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 9 of 50
CM #1: Yankees (1989-1991) — 1992 record of 76-86 (.469)
CM #2: Phillies (2014-2016) — 2017 record of 66-96 (.407)
CM #3: Mariners (1979-1981) — 1982 record of 76-86 (.469)
CM #4: Cubs (2011-2013) — 2014 record of 73-89 (.451)
CM #5: Devil Rays (2001-2003) — 2004 record of 70-91 (.435)