NL East’s hottest/coldest players for 2024
Acuna leads several Braves who enter the new season with momentum
The Braves are truly loaded. Atlanta possessed six of the 10 best players in the National League East last year, and all six are returning for the 2024 season.
Atop the list is the NL’s unanimous choice for Most Valuable Player, right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr., who batted .337 with 41 homers, 106 runs batted in, and 73 stolen bases. His overall base value (OBV) of plus-226 led not only the division, but also the entire league.
You can click here to learn more about OBV. But suffice it to say that a positive value indicates one of two things:
A particular batter reached more bases than the average big leaguer would have attained under identical circumstances.
A given pitcher surrendered fewer bases than his typical counterpart would have yielded under the same conditions.
Acuna, for instance, piled up 548 bases through singles, doubles, triples, homers, walks, hit batters, stolen bases, and sacrifices. If an average major-league hitter had generated the same number of outs as Acuna (458), he would have reached 322 bases along the way. Acuna’s base total was 226 higher than that norm, resulting in his OBV of plus-226.
Atlanta first baseman Matt Olson, with a 2023 OBV of plus-161, is the runner-up to Acuna in the NL East rankings. Other members of the Braves on the elite divisional list are designated hitter Marcell Ozuna (fifth with an OBV of 79), third baseman Austin Riley (eighth with 67), second baseman Ozzie Albies (ninth with 66), and starting pitcher Spencer Strider (10th with 60).
Scroll downward to see the 10 NL East players who posted the strongest performances a year ago, and who therefore (in theory, at least) enter the new season with massive doses of momentum.
You’ll also find my rankings of the 10 players in the division who fared the worst on the OBV scale.
At the very top (or bottom, depending on your perspective) of the latter list is Trevor Williams, a pitcher with the Washington Nationals. Williams fashioned a 6-10 record and a 5.55 ERA in 30 starts, finishing the year with an OBV of minus-87. That means he allowed 87 more bases than a typical pitcher would have surrendered.
Williams is an eight-year veteran who still has some cause to be hopeful. He once went 14-11 with a 3.11 ERA for the Pirates, though that was way back in 2018. He can only hope that the magic returns in 2024.
We’ll revisit the NL East on Friday, no longer looking to the past, but toward the future. I’ll unveil my forecast of the divisional standings for the upcoming season.
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Best OBV in NL East (2023)
1. Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves, OBV 226
2. Matt Olson, Braves, OBV 161
3. Bryce Harper, Phillies, OBV 89
4. Zack Wheeler, Phillies, OBV 86
5. Marcell Ozuna, Braves, OBV 79
6. Kyle Schwarber, Phillies, OBV 75
7. Francisco Lindor, Mets, OBV 70
8. Austin Riley, Braves, OBV 67
9. Ozzie Albies, Braves, OBV 66
10. Spencer Strider, Braves, OBV 60
Worst OBV in NL East (2023)
1. Trevor Williams, Nationals, OBV -87
2. Carlos Carrasco, Mets, OBV -69
3. Patrick Corbin, Nationals, OBV -63
4. Jean Segura, Marlins, OBV -61
5. Nick Fortes, Marlins, OBV -57
6. Joey Wendle, Marlins, OBV -56
7. Brett Baty, Mets, OBV -54
8. Chad Kuhl, Nationals, OBV -49
9. Jacob Stallings, Marlins, OBV -48
10. Dylan Dodd, Braves, OBV -37