NL West 2022 forecast
The Dodgers will squash any hopes for a rerun of 2021’s blockbuster pennant race
The National League West Division featured a nail-biting race that extended to the very final day of the 2021 season.
The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers posted the two best records in the majors, with 107 and 106 wins, respectively. The Giants didn’t clinch the divisional flag until securing an 11-4 victory over the San Diego Padres in the 162nd game of the year.
Don’t expect a repeat in 2022.
My computer forecast for the coming season — assuming the labor gods allow it to be played — envisions an easy triumph for the Dodgers. The predicted NL West title would be the ninth for Los Angeles in the past 10 years.
The division’s other four clubs are all projected to fall below .500, with the Padres inching up to second place, the Giants sliding down to third, and the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks remaining as irrelevant as usual.
How is that possible? How could the Giants collapse so completely in 2022 after enjoying such a miraculous season in 2021?
My forecast is driven solely by history, not by any analysis of minor-league prospects, free-agent acquisitions, trade pickups, or managerial changes. It’s an unusual system, to be sure, but it points to a San Francisco dive in 2022.
I have crosschecked each club’s performance during the past three years against the three-year records for every team since the onset of free agency in 1976, looking for the closest matches. The subsequent records of these doppelgangers, according to my theory, will suggest the future course of each team that takes the field in 2022.
My rankings are determined by team score (TS), a 100-point measure based on each club’s winning percentage, the differential between runs scored and allowed per game, the differential between bases per out (BPO) attained by batters and allowed by pitchers, and postseason success (if any).
Let’s use the 2019-2021 Dodgers as an example. They matched most closely with the 1985-1987 Mets, who posted impressive records all three years, taking the world title in the middle season of that span. Here are their wins, losses, winning percentages, and team scores:
1985: 98-64, .605, TS 65.210
1986: 108-54, .667, TS 94.962
1987: 92-70, .568, TS 71.263
The Dodgers were consistently strong over the past three seasons. And they, too, won the World Series in their middle year. Here are their records:
2019: 106-56, .654, TS 79.532
2020: 43-17, .717, TS 94.085
2021: 106-56, .654, TS 75.648
I’ve assembled lists of the five closest matches for each NL West club for 2019-2021, which you can find in the summary below. (Each match is listed with the final season and record of its three-year period. The 1985-1987 Mets, for instance, are displayed with their 1987 wins, losses, and TS.)
I averaged the team scores for all five matches during the first season after the three-year study period, generating a forecast for 2022. The 1988 Mets went 100-60 with a 74.761 TS, a good sign indeed for the upcoming version of the Dodgers. The average TS for all five of Los Angeles’s matches in their subsequent seasons was 68.851. Four of those teams made the playoffs.
My predicted standings are based solely on team scores, giving the Dodgers a wide advantage, as you can see. My computer also predicts wins and losses as a somewhat erratic byproduct, but TS is really the key factor here:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (94-68), TS 68.851
2. San Diego Padres (79-83), TS 41.882
3. San Francisco Giants (77-85), TS 40.709
4. Colorado Rockies (79-83), TS 40.455
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (63-99), TS 25.234
And something else: I went two steps further and projected the standings for 2023 and 2024, using the same system as for 2022.
The results for those seasons are included in the summaries below. Read them with several grains of salt, given the distance involved. It may not surprise you, though, that the Dodgers are predicted to keep rolling along, taking another pair of divisional titles.
The five NL West teams are shown in predicted 2022 order below. Each is followed by its 2021 record, its five closest matches, the subsequent performances of the top two matches, and my three years of predictions.
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1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2021 record: 106-56
2021 TS: 75.648; TS rank: 1 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Mets 1987 (92-70, TS 71.263); 2. Yankees 1999 (98-64, TS 83.564); 3. Yankees 1978 (100-63, TS 77.438); 4. Braves 1997 (101-61, TS 78.525); 5. Indians 1996 (99-62, TS 71.320)
What happened to top two matches: The Mets’ 92-win season in 1987 was actually their worst between 1985 and 1988. They rebounded in ’88 to claim a divisional title with a gaudy 100-60 record, then slumped back toward .500 in subsequent years. The Yankees won their second straight World Series in 1999, then pushed the streak to three in 2000 before losing the 2001 series to the Diamondbacks.
2022 prediction: 94-68, TS 68.851 (Division: 1 of 5; MLB: 1 of 30)
2023 prediction: 96-66, TS 67.100 (Division: 1 of 5; MLB: 1 of 30)
2024 prediction: 95-67, TS 68.601 (Division: 1 of 5; MLB: 1 of 30)
2. San Diego Padres
2021 record: 79-83
2021 TS: 46.026; TS rank: 15 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Padres 1985 (83-79, TS 46.681); 2. White Sox 2001 (83-79, TS 48.057); 3. Giants 1994 (55-60, TS 42.747); 4. Dodgers 1989 (77-83, TS 45.195); 5. Red Sox 1996 (85-77, TS 48.166)
What happened to top two matches: The Padres simply need to examine their own past to glimpse their future. San Diego finished 83-79 in 1985, then fell below .500 the next two years. A playoff berth wouldn’t come for another decade. The White Sox posted the same 83-79 mark in 2001, but enjoyed greater success in coming years, capped by a World Series triumph in 2005.
2022 prediction: 79-83, TS 41.882 (Division: 2 of 5; MLB: 18 of 30)
2023 prediction: 81-81, TS 45.666 (Division: 2 of 5; MLB: 11 of 30)
2024 prediction: 83-79, TS 47.300 (Division: 4 of 5; MLB: 14 of 30)
3. San Francisco Giants
2021 record: 107-55
2021 TS: 73.634; TS rank: 3 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Marlins 1997 (92-70, TS 73.229); 2. Royals 1985 (91-71, TS 71.710); 3. Mets 2015 (90-72, TS 68.509); 4. Marlins 2003 (91-71, TS 72.426); 5. Giants 2010 (92-70, TS 74.265)
What happened to top two matches: The Giants were surprisingly good in 2021, and the Marlins gave the baseball world an equal shock in 1997. They registered the first winning season in their five-year history, then seized an unlikely world championship. But the Marlins reverted to form between 1998 and 2002, staying below .500 all five seasons. The Royals followed up their first world title in 1985 with a 29-year playoff drought.
2022 prediction: 77-85, TS 40.709 (Division: 3 of 5; MLB: 20 of 30)
2023 prediction: 79-83, TS 44.663 (Division: 4 of 5; MLB: 15 of 30)
2024 prediction: 79-83, TS 42.802 (Division: 5 of 5; MLB: 17 of 30)
4. Colorado Rockies
2021 record: 74-87
2021 TS: 38.902; TS rank: 19 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. White Sox 2016 (78-84, TS 37.921); 2. Mets 1994 (55-58, TS 40.033); 3. Indians 2011 (80-82, TS 40.511); 4. Reds 2019 (75-87, TS 41.347); 5. Athletics 2017 (75-87, TS 36.892)
What happened to top two matches: The White Sox may have won only 78 games in 2016, but that was their best record in four years. They slipped badly the next three seasons, losing as many as 100 games in 2018. The Mets languished in mediocrity in 1994, suffering their fourth straight season below .500. They would remain underwater during the two years to come.
2022 prediction: 79-83, TS 40.455 (Division: 4 of 5; MLB: 21 of 30)
2023 prediction: 81-81, TS 45.371 (Division: 3 of 5; MLB: 13 of 30)
2024 prediction: 86-76, TS 49.967 (Division: 2 of 5; MLB: 10 of 30)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
2021 record: 52-110
2021 TS: 16.829; TS rank: 29 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Yankees 1990 (67-95, TS 17.305); 2. Orioles 2018 (47-115, TS 15.199); 3. Pirates 2001 (62-100, TS 16.421); 4. Expos 1976 (55-107, TS 16.785); 5. Tigers 2002 (55-106, TS 17.911)
What happened to top two matches: Yankee Stadium was not a happy place in 1990, as the home team stumbled 28 games below .500. What came next was more of the same. The Yankees wouldn’t qualify for the playoffs again until 1995. The Orioles were truly terrible in 2018, and they haven’t gotten much better since. They staggered to a 52-110 record last year, the same as Arizona.
2022 prediction: 63-99, TS 25.234 (Division: 5 of 5; MLB: 30 of 30)
2023 prediction: 73-89, TS 39.499 (Division: 5 of 5; MLB: 23 of 30)
2024 prediction: 82-80, TS 48.525 (Division: 3 of 5; MLB: 12 of 30)