Why bother poring through reams of statistics before predicting the winner of the National League’s Western Division? Why not just pick the Los Angeles Dodgers?
Why not, indeed?
The Dodgers have finished first in the NL West nine times in the past 10 seasons. Their only failure hardly deserves to be labeled as such. Los Angeles won the impressive total of 106 games in 2021, though the San Francisco Giants went one better with 107 victories.
So, yes, I’m willing to acknowledge this historical imperative by installing the Dodgers as the divisional favorite again in 2023.
But there’s more behind my verdict than a simple adherence to precedent. My predictions are based on comparisons of the NL West’s current clubs with the three-year records of 1,258 teams from the span between 1976 and 2020, better known as the era of free agency. (Click here to learn more about my prediction system.)
The projected standings are determined by the 50 closest matches (CMs) for each divisional squad, the 50 teams from the past that most closely resembled each present-day squad.
Thirty-four of the Dodgers’ 50 CMs made it to the playoffs in their subsequent seasons, easily the best record for anybody in the NL West. The runners-up are San Francisco (16 qualifiers) and the San Diego Padres (12), followed by the Arizona Diamondbacks with eight playoff contestants and the Colorado Rockies with only three CMs qualifying for postseason play.
That leaves us with these projected standings for the National League West in 2023:
1. Dodgers
2. Giants
3. Padres
4. Diamondbacks
5. Rockies
But wait a minute, you say. The Padres have spent so much money in recent months that they seem to have elevated themselves to elite status. Just consider some of their acquisitions since last August: outfielder Juan Soto, shortstop Xander Bogaerts, designated hitter Nelson Cruz, and pitchers Josh Hader, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha.
Several experts have picked the Padres to win the divisional crown this year, which would be their first NL West crown since 2006. It’s a logical choice, though my system is sticking stubbornly with the Dodgers. We’ll see who’s right in October.
Scroll below to see breakdowns for all five NL West clubs. The first entry for each team is its 2022 record, along with postseason abbreviations of P for a playoff berth, L for a league championship, and W for a world title. Next are the subsequent-season results for the 50 closest matches for a given franchise (based on my 2020-2022 analysis), followed by a list of the top five CMs and their next-year records.
Additional details can be found in the newly published Baseball’s Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook.
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1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2022 record: 111-51 (.685, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 8 of 50
Won league title in next season: 15 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 34 of 50
CM #1: Braves (1997-1999); 2000 record: 95-67 (.586, P)
CM #2: Dodgers (2017-2019); 2020 record: 43-17 (.717, WLP)
CM #3: Braves (1996-1998); 1999 record: 103-59 (.636, LP)
CM #4: Mets (1986-1988); 1989 record: 87-75 (.537)
CM #5: Braves (1995-1997); 1998 record: 106-56 (.654, P)
2. San Francisco Giants
2022 record: 81-81 (.500)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 4 of 50
Won league title in next season: 5 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 16 of 50
CM #1: Marlins (2002-2004); 2005 record: 83-79 (.512)
CM #2: Giants (2009-2011); 2012 record: 94-68 (.580, WLP)
CM #3: Giants (1988-1990); 1991 record: 75-87 (.463)
CM #4: Royals (1979-1981); 1982 record: 90-72 (.556)
CM #5: Phillies (1979-1981); 1982 record: 89-73 (.549)
3. San Diego Padres
2022 record: 89-73 (.549, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 4 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 12 of 50
CM #1: Dodgers (2009-2011); 2012 record: 86-76 (.531)
CM #2: Orioles (2014-2016); 2017 record: 75-87 (.463)
CM #3: White Sox (2000-2002); 2003 record: 86-76 (.531)
CM #4: Dodgers (1988-1990); 1991 record: 93-69 (.574)
CM #5: Diamondbacks (2017-2019); 2020 record: 25-35 (.417)
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4. Arizona Diamondbacks
2022 record: 74-88 (.457)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 8 of 50
CM #1: Expos (1975-1977); 1978 record: 76-86 (.469)
CM #2: Marlins (2012-2014); 2015 record: 71-91 (.438)
CM #3: Twins (1994-1996); 1997 record: 68-94 (.420)
CM #4: Blue Jays (1980-1982); 1983 record: 89-73 (.549)
CM #5: Astros (1990-1992); 1993 record: 85-77 (.525)
5. Colorado Rockies
2022 record: 68-94 (.420)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 3 of 50
CM #1: Rockies (2012-2014); 2015 record: 68-94 (.420)
CM #2: Twins (1995-1997); 1998 record: 70-92 (.432)
CM #3: White Sox (1978-1980); 1981 record: 54-52 (.509)
CM #4: Rockies (2002-2004); 2005 record: 67-95 (.414)
CM #5: White Sox (1986-1988); 1989 record: 69-92 (.429)
Baseball’s Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook
A complete rundown of 2022 stats — and a look ahead at the season to come