It seems pointless to issue annual predictions for the National League West.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have won 10 of the past 11 divisional crowns. Their only failure, if you want to call it that, occurred in 2021, when they finished second despite a sparkling 106-56 record and advanced all the way to the NL Championship Series.
So is it fair to assume that the Dodgers will continue to dominate the NL West in 2024?
Absolutely.
My history-based prediction system envisions another divisional crown in the club’s immediate future, and it will probably come easily. The Dodgers won the West by 16 games last year. A similar margin is likely this season.
My forecast is based on comparisons of the three-year records (2021-2023) of the five NL West clubs against corresponding performances of 1,288 big-league teams since the advent of free agency in 1976.
My computer isolated the 50 closest matches for each present-day team — that is, the 50 clubs from the past whose three-year records essentially mirrored those of a current member of the NL West.
It’s my theory that the subsequent performances of the 50 closest matches (CMs) should give us a glimpse of the likely courses for each division member in the season ahead.
That’s good news for the 2021-2023 Dodgers, who most closely resembled Atlanta’s 1991-1993 squads. Those Braves went on to post an impressive 68-46 record before the 1994 season was halted by a strike. An almost-certain playoff berth vanished when that year’s postseason was canceled.
Here’s how the Dodgers’ 50 CMs performed in their next seasons:
Topped .500: 42
Qualified for the playoffs: 29
Won the league title: 9
Won the World Series: 4
Ascending scores are attached to the four rungs of this ladder — beginning with a single point for exceeding .500 and rising to four points for a world title. Los Angeles earns a total of 143 points, easily leading the division.
Here are the predicted standings for the National League West, based on each club’s collective score for its 50 CMs:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers, 143 points
2. San Diego Padres, 78 points
3. Arizona Diamondbacks, 71 points
4. San Francisco Giants, 44 points
5. Colorado Rockies, 14 points
Scroll down to see each team’s forecast, including its 2023 record, the combined performances of its 50 CMs, and specific breakdowns of the five matches that came the closest of all. Be sure to check the subsequent season for each match. (I use these abbreviations: W indicates a World Series winner, L a league champion, and P a playoff qualifier.)
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1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2024 prediction points: 143
2023 record: 100-62 (.617, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 4 of 50
Won league title in next season: 9 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 29 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 42 of 50
CM #1: Braves (1991-1993) — 1994 record of 68-46 (.596)
CM #2: Braves (1998-2000) — 2001 record of 88-74 (.543, P)
CM #3: Phillies (2007-2009) — 2010 record of 97-65 (.599, P)
CM #4: Cardinals (2004-2006) — 2007 record of 78-84 (.481)
CM #5: Indians (1994-1996) — 1997 record of 86-75 (.534, LP)
2. San Diego Padres
2024 prediction points: 78
2023 record: 82-80 (.506)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 4 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 15 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 32 of 50
CM #1: Dodgers (2010-2012) — 2013 record of 92-70 (.568, P)
CM #2: Blue Jays (2005-2007) — 2008 record of 86-76 (.531)
CM #3: Diamondbacks (2006-2008) — 2009 record of 70-92 (.432)
CM #4: Red Sox (1980-1982) — 1983 record of 78-84 (.481)
CM #5: Phillies (2002-2004) — 2005 record of 88-74 (.543)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 prediction points: 71
2023 record: 84-78 (.519, LP)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 2 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 15 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 31 of 50
CM #1: Blue Jays (1981-1983) — 1984 record of 89-73 (.549)
CM #2: Yankees (1991-1993) — 1994 record of 70-43 (.619)
CM #3: Athletics (1997-1999) — 2000 record of 91-70 (.565, P)
CM #4: Mets (2003-2005) — 2006 record of 97-65 (.599, P)
CM #5: Astros (1991-1993) — 1994 record of 66-49 (.574)
4. San Francisco Giants
2024 prediction points: 44
2023 record: 79-83 (.488)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 7 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 27 of 50
CM #1: Mariners (1997-1999) — 2000 record of 91-71 (.562, P)
CM #2: Phillies (1993-1995) — 1996 record of 67-95 (.414)
CM #3: Giants (1989-1991) — 1992 record of 72-90 (.444)
CM #4: Marlins (2003-2005) — 2006 record of 78-84 (.481)
CM #5: Brewers (2011-2013) — 2014 record of 82-80 (.506)
5. Colorado Rockies
2024 prediction points: 14
2023 record: 59-103 (.364)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 0 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 3 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 8 of 50
CM #1: Braves (1986-1988) — 1989 record of 63-97 (.394)
CM #2: Pirates (1999-2001) — 2002 record of 72-89 (.447)
CM #3: Brewers (2000-2002) — 2003 record of 68-94 (.420)
CM #4: Athletics (1977-1979) — 1980 record of 83-79 (.512)
CM #5: Astros (2009-2011) — 2012 record of 55-107 (.340)