NL West’s hottest/coldest players for 2024
The Dodgers’ superstar trio outperforms the full rosters for most teams
This story features a list that is admittedly a bit misleading.
It’s a rundown of the 10 players in the National League West who posted the best statistics last season, specifically the best overall base values (OBV).
Atop the list are three certified superstars, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Juan Soto of the San Diego Padres, followed by 2023’s NL Rookie of the Year, Corbin Carroll of the Arizona Diamondbacks. It seems logical that they would enter 2024 as the hottest players in the division.
What could possibiy be misleading about that?
Well, a couple of things:
Soto is no longer in the NL West, having been traded to the New York Yankees over the winter.
The divisional representative with the very best OBV isn’t listed. Shohei Ohtani, who ran up a superhuman OBV of plus-240 in 2023 for the Los Angeles Angels of the American League West, has moved across town to the Dodgers this season.
So the list isn’t a perfect representation of the current hierarchy in the NL West, though it does go a long way toward explaining the supremacy of the Dodgers. If you add last year’s OBVs for Ohtani, Betts (plus-167), and Freeman (plus-163), you get a total of 570.
Only three of the 30 big-league clubs topped that collective figure in 2023 — the Atlanta Braves (team OBV of 680), Dodgers (574), and Tampa Bay Rays (571).
If you’re befuddled by all of this talk about overall base values, click here to learn more. Or simply keep in mind that a positive OBV reflects either of these outcomes:
A given batter reached more bases than the average big leaguer would have attained under identical circumstances.
A particular pitcher surrendered fewer bases than his typical counterpart would have yielded under the same conditions.
Betts, for example, piled up 461 bases through singles, doubles, triples, homers, walks, hit-by-pitches, stolen bases, and sacrifices. An average batter who duplicated Betts’s total number of outs (418) would have reached 294 bases. Betts was 167 above that total, as indicated by his OBV.
Scroll below to see the 10 NL West players who posted the strongest performances a year ago, as well as a separate list of the 10 players in the division who fared most poorly on the OBV scale.
The worst OBV belongs to Connor Seabold, a pitcher who went 1-7 with a 7.52 ERA in 13 starts and 14 relief appearances for the Colorado Rockies. He finished with a value of minus-65, showing that he allowed 65 more bases than the typical big-league pitcher would have given up.
Friday’s story will offer a closer look at the NL West, forecasting the divisional standings for the upcoming season.
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Best OBV in NL West (2023)
1. Mookie Betts, Dodgers, OBV 167
2. Freddie Freeman, Dodgers, OBV 163
3. Juan Soto, Padres, OBV 137
4. Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, OBV 120
5. Logan Webb, Giants, OBV 94
6. Nolan Jones, Rockies, OBV 90
7. Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks, OBV 80
8. Blake Snell, Padres, OBV 67
9. Christian Walker, Diamondbacks, OBV 59
9. Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks, OBV 59
Worst OBV in NL West (2023)
1. Connor Seabold, Rockies, OBV -65
2. Austin Gomber, Rockies, OBV -52
2. Miguel Rojas, Dodgers, OBV -52
4. Harold Castro, Rockies, OBV -50
4. Kyle Freeland, Rockies, OBV -50
6. Brenton Doyle, Rockies, OBV -47
6. Noah Syndergaard, Dodgers, OBV -47
8. Ryne Nelson, Diamondbacks, OBV -46
9. Ty Blach, Rockies, OBV -45
10. Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks, OBV -44