It appears that the race for the National League’s Cy Young Award will run to the final wire.
The American League has a clear frontrunner for its annual pitching award, as we noted yesterday. Gerrit Cole of the New York Yankees is far ahead of all AL competitors.
But the situation is much different in the NL, where three pitchers are battling for supremacy in base values (BV) and three others are close behind. Any of them could take home the Cy.
Zac Gallen of the Arizona Diamondbacks held a small lead after the games of August 15, the point at which this year’s schedule reached the three-quarters mark. He had allowed opposing batters to attain 255 bases through hits, walks, hit batters, stolen bases, and sacrifices as of that date, and he had induced 467 outs.
The typical big-league pitcher would have surrendered 327 bases under the same 467-out circumstances, according to 2023 averages. Gallen was 72 bases stingier than that total, which translates to a league-leading BV of minus-72. (Click here to learn more about how BV is calculated.)
It’s an impressive figure, yet two pitchers remain on Gallen’s heels: Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants at minus-68 and Corbin Burnes of the Milwaukee Brewers at minus-65. And four others still have outside chances: Zack Wheeler of the Philadelphia Phillies (minus-57), Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers (minus-50), and Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele of the Chicago Cubs (minus-48 and minus-45, respectively).
Conventional stats buttress the cases for all three of the top candidates. Gallen had the most wins (12) among the trio at the three-quarters pole. Webb had allowed the fewest walks (26). And Burnes had held opposing hitters to the lowest batting average (.198).
So who will win the National League’s Cy Young Award? The final month of the season will obviously tell the tale.
Look down for the 20 National League leaders in pitching base value as of mid-August, followed by a team-by-team list of BV leaders.
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NL top 20 pitching base values
1. Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks, BV -72
2. Logan Webb, Giants, BV -68
3. Corbin Burnes, Brewers, BV -65
4. Zack Wheeler, Phillies, BV -57
5. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, BV -50
6. Marcus Stroman, Cubs, BV -48
7. Justin Steele, Cubs, BV -45
8. Sandy Alcantara, Marlins, BV -40
8. Bryce Elder, Braves, BV -40
8. Josh Hader, Padres, BV -40
11. Spencer Strider, Braves, BV -39
12. Michael Wacha, Padres, BV -38
13. Justin Verlander, Mets, BV -37
14. Kevin Ginkel, Diamondbacks, BV -36
14. Dustin May, Dodgers, BV -36
16. Kodai Senga, Mets, BV -35
17. Evan Phillips, Dodgers, BV -34
17. Brent Suter, Rockies, BV -34
19. Adbert Alzolay, Cubs, BV -33
19. Devin Williams, Brewers, BV -33
NL leaders by club
Braves — Bryce Elder, BV -40
Brewers — Corbin Burnes, BV -65
Cardinals — JoJo Romero, BV -23
Cubs — Marcus Stroman, BV -48
Diamondbacks — Zac Gallen, BV -72
Dodgers — Clayton Kershaw, BV -50
Giants — Logan Webb, BV -68
Marlins — Sandy Alcantara, BV -40
Mets — Justin Verlander, BV -37
Nationals — Hunter Harvey, BV -19
Padres — Josh Hader, BV -40
Phillies — Zack Wheeler, BV -57
Pirates — David Bednar, BV -31
Reds — Andrew Abbott and Alexis Diaz, BV -20
Rockies — Brent Suter, BV -34