Some major-league franchises don’t seem to be trying too hard, do they?
Yes, I’m talking about the Baltimore Orioles, already 23 games out of first place in the American League East. And the Pittsburgh Pirates, destined for their third straight season with a winning percentage below .430. And the Texas Rangers, wallowing 18 games under .500. And the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks, the twin doormats of the National League West.
Those five clubs had a combined record of 136-253 as of yesterday, translating to a putrid percentage of .350. Yet they’re still allowed to bill themselves as big-league teams — and they’re still allowed to charge big-league ticket prices.
That doesn’t seem right, especially in such cases as the Orioles and Pirates, who always seem to be in the midst of rebuilding projects that rarely (if ever) bear fruit.
Soccer levies the ultimate penalty on perpetually underachieving teams of this ilk. It throws them out of the league.
The process is known as relegation. The 20-team English Premier League, for example, relegates the three worst clubs each season, pushing them to a lower division and replacing them with the three best teams from that division.
It’s the equivalent of taking three terrible major-league teams, demoting them to AAA, and replacing them with the Durham Bulls, Omaha Storm Chasers, and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders.
That’s not going to happen, of course, but I’ve devised a plausible alternative that would penalize the sloths, slugs, and tankers of the baseball world in similar fashion.
My plan calls for the realignment of both leagues into three new divisions — East, West, and Third. Teams in the first two groupings would compete for postseason slots, just as always. But clubs in the Third Division — each league’s five worst teams (based on the previous year’s records) — would be ineligible.
Everybody would still play a 162-game schedule — 18 games against each divisional opponent, six against each of the remaining 10 teams in the league, and six against each member of the corresponding division in the other league.
Each club in the American League’s Third Division, for instance, would play 72 games against its fellow AL bottom feeders, as well as another 30 against the lowly NL Third. Top attractions such as the Red Sox and Yankees, who are slated to play 10 games each in Baltimore this season, would take the field in Camden Yards only three times apiece under my revised schedule.
The twin drawbacks of being mired in the Third Division — playoff ineligibility and an unappealing slate of opponents — should be sufficient to inspire most clubs to try harder in the present, rather then simply prattling about the future benefits of their rebuilding efforts.
Their other incentive would be an annual opportunity to join the big boys. Two teams — the ones with the worst records in the East and West — would be demoted to each league’s Third Division at the end of each season. The top two clubs in the Third, provided that their records were .500 or better, would be elevated to replace them.
The .500 stipulation is important. If only one Third Division team finishes with a winning record, the relegation candidate with the better record would get a reprieve. If everybody in the Third remains below .500, the division structure would be unchanged the following season.
The lineups of each league’s two elite divisions would be geographically realigned every year, based strictly on longitude. A team in the middle of the country — say, Chicago or Milwaukee — might find itself in the East one season and the West the next.
The race for playoff spots would continue, but my system would add a whole new level of interest for fans whose clubs aren’t in the postseason hunt. Imagine the excitement (and dread) as the end of the season nears, and clubs in the East and West struggle to avoid relegation, while frontrunners in the Third push for elevation.
I’ve put together a simulation below, dividing clubs into divisions based on their combined records for 2019 and 2020, then estimating their wins and losses for 75 games — roughly this point of the season — based on their performances against other clubs in 2021 so far.
Most teams would have reason for optimism under my system — either about grabbing one of the five postseason bids available to the 10 elite clubs in each league, or about making definite progress by climbing out of the Third Division.
But the Orioles and Pirates, I’m sorry to say, had better prepare themselves to spend yet another year in the basement.
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AL East
1. Boston Red Sox (48-27)
2. Tampa Bay Rays (47-28)
3. New York Yankees (38-37)
3. Toronto Blue Jays (38-37)
5. Cleveland Indians (37-38)
Notes: The Red Sox and Rays are engaged in a dogfight in the real-life Eastern Division, and the same is true in my simulation. But there’s an added reason for interest in the bottom of my standings. The Yankees, Blue Jays, and Indians are all within one game of each other — and don’t forget, one could be relegated at the end of the season. Panic in the Bronx?
AL West
1. Houston Astros (47-28)
2. Chicago White Sox (46-29)
3. Oakland Athletics (43-32)
4. Minnesota Twins (33-42)
5. Texas Rangers (28-47)
Notes: Here’s another exciting division race, involving two clubs that are leading different divisions in real life, the Astros (West) and White Sox (Central). Both would make the AL playoffs if my 75-game standings held true at the end, joined by the Red Sox, Rays, and Athletics. The Rangers, on the other hand, can start packing for the Third Division.
AL Third
1. Seattle Mariners (40-35)
2. Kansas City Royals (36-39)
3. Detroit Tigers (34-41)
3. Los Angeles Angels (34-41)
5. Baltimore Orioles (31-44)
Notes: The Mariners are in command of the Third Division so far, dangling the prospect of elevation to the AL West in 2022. But don’t forget my caveat — a team must have a record of .500 or better to rise. The second-place team is also eligible for a ticket to the elite level, yet the Royals are three games below .500 right now, which would void their pass.
NL East
1. Atlanta Braves (36-39)
1. Chicago Cubs (36-39)
1. New York Mets (36-39)
1. Philadelphia Phillies (36-39)
5. Washington Nationals (35-40)
Notes: My computer had fun with this division, based on the team-by-team matchups that have occurred so far this year. It came up with a four-way tie for first place, giving everybody the same sub-.500 record. And it put the Nationals just one game off the pace. That means anyone could win the title — or be relegated.
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (44-31)
1. San Diego Padres (44-31)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (43-32)
4. St. Louis Cardinals (35-40)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (18-57)
Notes: This mirrors real life to an extent. The Dodgers and Padres are locked in a tough battle in my simulation, as they are in the actual NL West. (But the current leaders in the real West, the Giants, are missing here.) The top team in 2021’s Central, the Brewers, sit just a game behind the co-leaders in the simulated West. The Diamondbacks are as good as relegated.
NL Third
1. San Francisco Giants (48-27)
2. Cincinnati Reds (39-36)
3. Miami Marlins (36-39)
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (30-45)
5. Colorado Rockies (29-46)
Notes: San Francisco is the surprise of the baseball world this season, shooting up from mediocrity to the best record in the majors as of Monday. It’s a great story, but my system makes the Giants ineligible for the playoffs, requiring them to a pay a price for their past sins. They first have to win elevation, which appears to be a cinch. The Reds are also in position to climb to the elite level next year.