Racing for the Cy, assessing team records, and working clean as a closer

Three candidates are tightly bunched for each league’s top pitching award

Aug 13, 2024

1. BEST: Cy Young favorites

Clear frontrunners for the two Cy Young Awards usually emerge by this point of the baseball season.

Not this year.

Three contenders are closely bunched in each league, according to my calculations of overall base value after 19 weeks of play.

OBV is the number of bases a pitcher has allowed (through hits, walks, hit batters, stolen bases, and sacrifices), compared to the amount that an average pitcher would have surrendered under the same circumstances. A positive OBV indicates that a pitcher has been stingier than normal, saving his team the specified number of bases.

Consider Tarik Skubal, the lefthanded ace for the Detroit Tigers. He yielded 213 bases and obtained 436 outs in his 23 starts through August 8. The typical pitcher would have allowed 295 bases while getting the same number of outs. Skubal’s total is 82 bases lower, which is why his OBV is plus-82, the best figure in the majors.

But Skubal doesn’t have a clear path to the American League’s Cy Young Award. Logan Gilbert of the Seattle Mariners (OBV of plus-77) and Seth Lugo of the Kansas City Royals (plus-69) are within striking distance.

The Cy Young race in the National League is even closer, with Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves, Dylan Cease of the San Diego Padres, and Zack Wheeler of the Philadelphia Phillies all tightly bunched. Sale’s OBV of plus-63 puts him three bases ahead of Cease and Wheeler, who are tied with values of plus-60.

Here are the 10 best pitchers in each league at the season’s 19-week mark:

American League leaders

1. Tarik Skubal, Tigers, OBV 82
2. Logan Gilbert, Mariners, OBV 77
3. Seth Lugo, Royals, OBV 69
4. Emmanuel Clase, Guardians, OBV 59
5. Tanner Houck, Red Sox, OBV 58
6. Garrett Crochet, White Sox, OBV 48
6. George Kirby, Mariners, OBV 48
8. Tyler Holton, Tigers, OBV 47
9. Bryce Miller, Mariners, OBV 45
9. Bryan Woo, Mariners, OBV 45

National League leaders

1. Chris Sale, Braves, OBV 63
2. Dylan Cease, Padres, OBV 60
2. Zack Wheeler, Phillies, OBV 60
4. Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers, OBV 55
5. Paul Skenes, Pirates, OBV 51
5. Ranger Suarez, Phillies, OBV 51
7. Max Fried, Braves, OBV 47
8. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies, OBV 46
9. Shota Imanaga, Cubs, OBV 45
10. Logan Webb, Giants, OBV 41

2. WORST: Milt Gaston candidates

If there were a reverse version of the Cy Young Award, I think it should be named after Milt Gaston.

I’ve explained my reasoning before. Gaston posted the worst record for any pitcher with at least 250 decisions, going 97-164 (.372) between 1924 and 1934. He twice led the American League in losses.

Logan Allen of the Cleveland Guardians and Patrick Corbin of the Washington Nationals would be the leading candidates for 2024’s Milt Gaston Awards, if only they existed.

Allen’s OBV of minus-56 indicates that he surrendered 56 bases more than the average pitcher would have yielded through August 8. That’s the worst figure in the American League, though not as bad as Corbin’s value of minus-64 in the National League.

Allen’s 8-4 record seems to belie his terrible OBV, though his ERA of 5.56 confirms that this has been a difficult season. Corbin’s marks of 2-12 and 5.88 are just plain awful all the way around.

Here are the five pitchers in each league with the worst OBVs as of August 8:

American League tailenders

1. Logan Allen, Guardians, OBV -56
2. Kenta Maeda, Tigers, OBV -44
2. Triston McKenzie, Guardians, OBV -44
4. Carlos Carrasco, Guardians, OBV -43
5. Chris Flexen, White Sox, OBV -42

National League tailenders

1. Patrick Corbin, Nationals, OBV -64
2. Ty Blach, Rockies, OBV -52
3. Roddery Munoz, Marlins, OBV -48
4. Jordan Montgomery, Diamondbacks, OBV -44
5. Yonny Chirinos, Marlins, OBV -40

3. GRAPH: Extreme staffs

The Seattle Mariners can’t hit.

No team — not even the woeful Chicago White Sox — had a lower batting average at the 19-week mark of the 2024 season. The Mariners were hitting .217 as a unit, the worst team BA in the majors.

And yet Seattle was tied for first place in the American League West with the Houston Astros, the club with the third-highest BA in the big leagues (.261).

How is that possible?

The answer, of course, is pitching. Seattle’s staff had a collective ERA of 3.47, the best in the majors as of August 8. The Mariners also allowed the fewest hits per nine innings (7.5) and the fewest walks per nine (2.4).

The result is a healthy lead in overall base value among the 30 big-league staffs. Seattle’s pitchers have allowed 266 fewer bases than the average staff would have yielded, which gives the Mariners an OBV of plus-266.

The Philadelphia Phillies are a distant second with an OBV of plus-176 for their pitchers, while the Colorado Rockies have the worst value, minus-365. That means Colorado’s pitchers have surrendered 365 more bases than normal.

This week’s graph shows the top three and bottom three staffs at the 19-week mark:

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4. QUIZ: Team splits

The season is slightly more than four months old, and fans are starting to pay more attention to the standings. It will soon be time to start talking about magic numbers and playoff berths.

This week’s quiz puts a twist on the standings, looking at some of the more obscure accomplishments by various teams over the first 19 weeks. Scroll to the end of this newsletter for the answers.

1. Which team has the best winning percentage in road games?

A. Baltimore Orioles
B. Boston Red Sox
C. New York Yankees
D. San Diego Padres

2. And who has been playing the worst ball on the road?

A. Chicago White Sox
B. Colorado Rockies
C. Miami Marlins
D. Oakland Athletics

3. Which club has the best record in day games?

A. Boston Red Sox
B. Cleveland Guardians
C. Milwaukee Brewers
D. Minnesota Twins

4. Who has won the largest number of games by one-run margins?

A. Arizona Diamondbacks
B. New York Mets
C. St. Louis Cardinals
D. Seattle Mariners

5. Which team has the most wins in interleague play?

A. Atlanta Braves
B. Los Angeles Dodgers
C. Milwaukee Brewers
D. Tampa Bay Rays

5. LEADERBOARD: Clean saves

Ryan Helsley, the flame-throwing closer for the St. Louis Cardinals, is the major-league leader in saves. He had 36 as of August 8.

The sheer size of that number suggests that Helsley is a machine. He enters in the ninth inning and — one-two-three — automatically clinches another St. Louis victory.

That’s not the case at all. Helsley has four losses and another two blown saves on his record this year. And he has allowed two or more hits on eight occasions, including five in which he was credited with saves.

It can truly be said that not all saves are created equal.

That’s why I’ve come up with the “clean save,” which is awarded to any closer who works at least one inning, allows no baserunners at all, and locks down a win. Helsley is the leader in this category as well. His 18 clean saves account for precisely half of his overall save total of 36.

Nine pitchers had at least 10 clean saves as of August 8. Here they are:

1. Ryan Helsley, Cardinals, 18
2. Emmanuel Clase, Guardians, 15
2. Carlos Estevez, Angels, 15
4. Craig Kimbrel, Orioles, 14
5. Kyle Finnegan, Nationals, 13
5. Raisel Iglesias, Braves, 13
7. Mason Miller, Athletics, 11
7. Robert Suarez, Padres, 11
9. Josh Hader, Astros, 10

6. TRACKING THE BEST: ’84 Tigers

The 1984 Detroit Tigers — ranked as the best team of baseball’s Modern Era (1961 to the present) — started the week of August 6-12 in tough fashion.

They played a doubleheader against the Boston Red Sox on Monday the sixth, then another doubleheader the next day. Detroit split those four games, lost a Wednesday contest to Boston, and closed the week by sweeping a three-game set with the Kansas City Royals.

Jack Morris, the future Hall of Famer, won the middle game of the K.C. series, boosting his record to 15-8.

The Tigers remained firmly in control of the American League East as of August 13, 1984. They had a 77-41 record, nine games better than the second-place Toronto Blue Jays.

7. TRACKING THE WORST: ’62 Mets

This year’s White Sox are giving them a run for the money, but the 1962 New York Mets remain the team with the most losses in the Modern Era.

The Mets played their role to perfection 62 years ago this week. They lost six of seven games between August 6 and 12, 1962.

New York’s only win was a 5-2 victory over the San Francisco Giants, who were destined for the World Series that year. Left fielder Frank Thomas and third baseman Felix Mantilla bashed a pair of two-run homers in the fifth inning to break the game open. Roger Craig pitched a complete game to pick up the win and improve his record to 7-17.

The Mets clung tightly to last place in the National League on the morning of August 13. Their 30-86 record put them 47.5 games behind the frontrunning Los Angeles Dodgers.

8. QUIZ ANSWERS: Team splits

1-C. (The Yankees were 38-22 in away games as of August 8, giving them a .633 winning percentage on the road. The Orioles and Padres were tied for second at .596.)

2-A. (An easy one, right? It couldn’t be anybody else but the horrific White Sox, whose 11-49 road record worked out to .183. The Rockies were next worse at .283.)

3-D. (The Twins love playing in the sunshine, as evidenced by their 34-19 record in day games so far this year. That’s a .642 pace. The Guardians were the runner-up at the 19-week mark with a daytime winning percentage of .628.)

4-C. (The Cardinals notched 22 one-run victories in the first 19 weeks. The other three listed clubs were next with 21 apiece.)

5-C. (It’s the Brewers by a mile. Milwaukee had 26 wins against American League teams as of August 8. The Braves came next with 22 interleague victories.)

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