Recovering from a terrible start
These 10 clubs stumbled through April, yet still made the playoffs
The 2021 baseball season is finally, finally, finally underway — and all 30 teams are doing their best to get off to fast starts.
It’s a truism, after all, that a bad April can sink an entire season.
There just one problem with that time-honored adage. It isn’t accurate. Statistics from the past quarter-century show that a great initial month doesn’t really have much impact on a club’s final position.
I pulled the records of all 216 playoff teams from 1995 (the year the wild card was introduced) to 2019 (the last complete season). Only 128 of those clubs would have qualified if postseason slots were determined by the standings at the end of April. That’s only 59%, which is little better than a coin flip.
Hence the cliché about the season being a marathon, not a sprint. It’s nice to get off to a rapid start, but it’s hardly essential.
Forty-two clubs played sub-.500 ball in April, yet still made the playoffs during the 1995-2019 span. Among them were 10 teams that stumbled to marks of .400 or worse in the season’s first month. They’re displayed chronologically below.
Each entry shows the team’s win-loss record and winning percentage for April (which includes late March for seasons that started early), as well as the club’s collective marks for the subsequent five months and the year as a whole, its playoff status, and a player who led the team’s comeback from its sluggish start.
If your favorite club stumbles out of the gate in the next three or four weeks, take heart from these examples. But don’t get too giddy. Only one of the 10 teams below made it all the way to the World Series — the 2007 Rockies — and they were swept by the Red Sox.
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1995 Cincinnati Reds
Record in April: 0-5 (.000)
Record after April: 85-54 (.612)
Season record: 85-59 (.590)
Playoff qualifier: NL Central champion
Year to remember: Hall of Fame shortstop Barry Larkin ripped 10 hits in the five April games of this strike-shortened season. He went on to become the National League’s Most Valuable Player for the year, batting .319 and winning his second Gold Glove.
2001 Oakland Athletics
Record in April: 8-17 (.320)
Record after April: 94-43 (.686)
Season record: 102-60 (.630)
Playoff qualifier: AL wild card
Year to remember: First baseman Jason Giambi drove 19 runs home in April while batting .350. He finished as the runner-up to Seattle’s Ichiro Suzuki for the American League’s MVP. Giambi batted .342, blasted 38 homers, and drove in 120 runs for the year.
2006 Minnesota Twins
Record in April: 9-15 (.375)
Record after April: 87-51 (.630)
Season record: 96-66 (.593)
Playoff qualifier: AL Central champion
Year to remember: First baseman Justin Morneau endured a horrible start to what would be the best season of his 14-year career. He batted just .208 in April, but would go on to hit .321 with 130 RBIs for the entire season and win the AL’s MVP honors.
2006 San Diego Padres
Record in April: 9-15 (.375)
Record after April: 79-59 (.572)
Season record: 88-74 (.543)
Playoff qualifier: NL West champion
Year to remember: Hall of Fame closer Trevor Hoffman didn’t get much work in April. The Padres gave him few save opportunities, so he notched only three. He was much busier the rest of the year, finishing with a league-leading 46 saves.
2007 New York Yankees
Record in April: 9-14 (.391)
Record after April: 85-54 (.612)
Season record: 94-68 (.580)
Playoff qualifier: AL wild card
Year to remember: Third baseman Alex Rodriguez got off to a torrid start, blasting 14 home runs and amassing 34 RBIs in April alone. He wrapped up 2007 with 54 homers, 156 RBIs, and a .314 batting average. He was named the AL’s Most Valuable Player.
2007 Colorado Rockies
Record in April: 10-16 (.385)
Record after April: 80-57 (.584)
Season record: 90-73 (.552)
Playoff qualifier: NL wild card
Year to remember: Left fielder Matt Holliday was hot from the beginning, batting .385 and driving in 19 runs in April. He would lead the National League in both categories (.340, 137 RBIs) and finish second to Philadelphia’s Jimmy Rollins in the MVP voting.
2009 Colorado Rockies
Record in April: 8-12 (.400)
Record after April: 84-58 (.592)
Season record: 92-70 (.568)
Playoff qualifier: NL wild card
Year to remember: It was shortstop Troy Tulowitzki’s turn to shine for the Rockies, though you wouldn’t have known from his anemic .200 batting average in April. He warmed up to finish with a .297 average, 32 homers, and 92 RBIs.
2010 Atlanta Braves
Record in April: 9-14 (.391)
Record after April: 82-57 (.590)
Season record: 91-71 (.562)
Playoff qualifier: NL wild card
Year to remember: It was clear in April that second baseman Martin Prado was destined for a strong year. He batted .356 and drew 10 walks for the month. Prado’s season totals were 184 hits, 40 doubles, and a .307 average, good for ninth place in the NL’s MVP balloting.
2014 Pittsburgh Pirates
Record in April: 10-16 (.385)
Record after April: 78-58 (.574)
Season record: 88-74 (.543)
Playoff qualifier: NL wild card
Year to remember: Center fielder Andrew McCutchen hit .286 — solid, but hardly exceptional — in April. He was much stronger during the rest of 2014, batting .314 for the year and topping the National League with a .410 on-base average.
2015 Texas Rangers
Record in April: 7-14 (.333)
Record after April: 81-60 (.574)
Season record: 88-74 (.543)
Playoff qualifier: AL West champion
Year to remember: April was a terrible month for third baseman Adrian Beltre, who drove home only two runs and batted just .205. Yet he awakened to finish the season with a .287 average and 83 RBIs. He was seventh in MVP voting in the American League.