There are two quick and easy ways to determine the best baseball clubs of 2021 or any other season.
The first, of course, is to check the standings. The second is to count the bases.
I’m here to talk about the lesser-known system, the second one. There’s a remarkably strong correlation, it turns out, between a team’s base balance (bases reached minus bases yielded) and its playoff potential.
That shouldn’t be a surprise. As a former general manager of the Texas Rangers and Milwaukee Brewers, Doug Melvin, once said: “You can’t win the game without moving the pieces on the board. It’s all about capturing bases.”
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The first step is to add up all of the bases each team’s batters reached in 2021 through hits, walks, hit batsmen, stolen bases, sacrifice hits, and sacrifice flies. (The latter two result in outs, yet they’re counted here because they also advance runners.)
The Houston Astros, for instance, rapped 962 singles, 299 doubles, 14 triples, and 221 home runs for 2,486 total bases this season. They also drew 569 walks, had 64 of their batters get plunked, stole 53 bases, laid down nine sacrifice hits, and swatted 54 sacrifice flies. Grand total: 3,235 bases, the most attained by any club in the major leagues.
The following were 2021’s leading teams in bases reached (the only 10, by the way, to top 3,000 bases). Their win-loss records are in parentheses:
1. Houston Astros (95-67), 3,235 bases reached
2. Toronto Blue Jays (91-71), 3,225
3. San Francisco Giants (107-55), 3,202
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (106-56), 3,195
5. Tampa Bay Rays (100-62), 3,151
6. Boston Red Sox (92-70), 3,132
7. Cincinnati Reds (83-79), 3,113
8. Atlanta Braves (88-73), 3,083
9. Chicago White Sox (93-69), 3,046
10. Washington Nationals (65-97), 3,028
Seven of these 10 clubs qualified for the playoffs (including Houston and Atlanta, the World Series finalists). An eighth, Toronto, finished just one game off the pace. Cincinnati was also in the playoff hunt for much of the season, leaving only Washington as a real disappointment.
The average record for these 10 offensive powerhouses was 92-70, a solid 22 games above .500. The 10 clubs that reached the fewest bases, on the other hand, finished with an average mark of 69-93. The Pittsburgh Pirates (61-101) were saddled with the least productive offense in baseball, generating just 2,649 bases.
So there’s definitely something to be said about swinging the bat. But what about silencing the other team’s hitters? These are the 10 clubs that allowed their opponents to reach the fewest bases in 2021:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (106-56), 2,552 bases yielded
2. San Francisco Giants (107-55), 2,604
3. Milwaukee Brewers (95-67), 2,674
4. Chicago White Sox (93-69), 2,716
5. Tampa Bay Rays (100-62), 2,719
6. New York Mets (77-85), 2,740
7. Houston Astros (95-67), 2,779
8. St. Louis Cardinals (90-72), 2,784
9. New York Yankees (92-70), 2,789
10. Atlanta Braves (88-73), 2,807
Nine of the 10 playoff clubs can be found on this list. Only the Boston Red Sox are missing, supplanted by the Mets. The average record for these 10 pitching-heavy clubs was 94-68.
The 10 worst clubs on the pitching side of the ledger all gave up at least 3,064 bases, with the Arizona Diamondbacks (52-110) at the very bottom of the standings with a massive outlay of 3,387 bases allowed. The average record for the bottom 10 was 72 wins and 90 losses.
The two lists above have broken down both sides of the equation. But the key, of course, is to be simultaneously strong at the plate and on the mound.
How do we account for that? With base balance, which is the difference between bases reached and bases yielded.
The Dodgers, by that measure, were baseball’s strongest team in 2021. They ended the regular season with a positive balance of 643 bases, the result of 3,195 bases reached minus 2,552 bases yielded. Next came the Giants with a base balance of 598. (It’s no surprise that those two clubs boasted the year’s very best win-loss records.)
Nine of the 10 playoff teams are also in the top 10 for base balance. The Blue Jays, who fell just one game short of a wild-card berth, are the only interloper. (The final playoff entrant, the Red Sox, rank 12th in balance.)
Here’s the full rundown, offering solid proof that bases are just as good as wins in reflecting the overall quality of a ballclub:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (106-56) — base balance of 643 (bases reached: 3,195, bases yielded: 2,552)
2. San Francisco Giants (107-55) — base balance of 598 (bases reached: 3,202, bases yielded: 2,604)
3. Houston Astros (95-67) — base balance of 456 (bases reached: 3,235, bases yielded: 2,779)
4. Tampa Bay Rays (100-62) — base balance of 432 (bases reached: 3,151, bases yielded: 2,719)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (91-71) — base balance of 403 (bases reached: 3,225, bases yielded: 2,822)
6. Chicago White Sox (93-69) — base balance of 330 (bases reached: 3,046, bases yielded: 2,716)
7. Atlanta Braves (88-73) — base balance of 276 (bases reached: 3,083, bases yielded: 2,807)
8. Milwaukee Brewers (95-67) — base balance of 266 (bases reached: 2,940, bases yielded: 2,674)
9. New York Yankees (92-70) — base balance of 171 (bases reached: 2,960, bases yielded: 2,789)
10. St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) — base balance of 155 (bases reached: 2,939, bases yielded: 2,784)
11. Oakland Athletics (86-76) — base balance of 154 (bases reached: 2,986, bases yielded: 2,832)
12. Boston Red Sox (92-70) — base balance of 80 (bases reached: 3,132, bases yielded: 3,052)
13. Philadelphia Phillies (82-80) — base balance of 60 (bases reached: 2,990, bases yielded: 2,930)
14. San Diego Padres (79-83) — base balance of 29 (bases reached: 2,999, bases yielded: 2,970)
15. Cincinnati Reds (83-79) — base balance of 10 (bases reached: 3,113, bases yielded: 3,103)
16. New York Mets (77-85) — base balance of -6 (bases reached: 2,734, bases yielded: 2,740)
17. Cleveland Indians (80-82) — base balance of -66 (bases reached: 2,852, bases yielded: 2,918)
18. Colorado Rockies (74-87) — base balance of -133 (bases reached: 2,936, bases yielded: 3,069)
19. Minnesota Twins (73-89) — base balance of -153 (bases reached: 2,998, bases yielded: 3,151)
20. Washington Nationals (65-97) — base balance of -164 (bases reached: 3,028, bases yielded: 3,192)
21. Kansas City Royals (74-88) — base balance of -172 (bases reached: 2,830, bases yielded: 3,002)
22. Los Angeles Angels (77-85) — base balance of -181 (bases reached: 2,869, bases yielded: 3,050)
23. Seattle Mariners (90-72) — base balance of -214 (bases reached: 2,777, bases yielded: 2,991)
24. Miami Marlins (67-95) — base balance of -221 (bases reached: 2,671, bases yielded: 2,892)
25. Detroit Tigers (77-85) — base balance of -229 (bases reached: 2,835, bases yielded: 3,064)
26. Chicago Cubs (71-91) — base balance of -350 (bases reached: 2,912, bases yielded: 3,262)
27. Texas Rangers (60-102) — base balance of -419 (bases reached: 2,672, bases yielded: 3,091)
28. Pittsburgh Pirates (61-101) — base balance of -579 (bases reached: 2,649, bases yielded: 3,228)
29. Baltimore Orioles (52-110) — base balance of -582 (bases reached: 2,792, bases yielded: 3,374)
30. Arizona Diamondbacks (52-110) — base balance of -594 (bases reached: 2,793, bases yielded: 3,387)