The experts have reached a consensus on the best pitcher in the National League in 2023:
Ben Verlander of Fox Sports summarized the conventional wisdom a couple of weeks ago: “Blake Snell (has) cemented himself as the National League Cy Young Award winner.”
Tom Verducci signaled his agreement in Sports Illustrated: “Padres lefthander Blake Snell represents the state of the art of pitching. And nobody has been better in the National League.”
And Bob Nightengale of USA Today joined the chorus: “Padres ace Blake Snell, who won the American League Cy Young Award in 2018 with the Rays, is on the verge of becoming only the seventh pitcher to win the award in both leagues.”
To which I say: Not so fast.
Snell was admittedly impressive during the final two-thirds of the 2023 season. He went 13-3 from June 1 through October 1, posting a microscopic earned run average of 1.23. The Padres won 15 of his 21 starts over that span.
But let’s not forget the season’s initial two months. Snell fashioned a dismal 1-6 record from March 30 to May 31, wobbling to an ERA of 4.50. San Diego lost nine of his first 11 starts this year.
Cy Young honorees are expected to be consistently strong between the first pitch of a season and its very last game. Blake Snell failed to meet that standard in 2023.
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Snell’s advocates cite a pair of imposing statistical accomplishments. He led the National League in earned run average (2.25) and finished second in strikeouts (234) this season. Those numbers appear to tip the scale in his favor.
But other stats inspire doubts about his Cy Young candidacy:
Snell was unusually wild in 2023. He issued 99 walks, far and away the most allowed by any NL pitcher. The distant runners-up, Charlie Morton of the Atlanta Braves and Johan Oviedo of the Pittsburgh Pirates, yielded 83 apiece. Snell also uncorked the league’s second-highest total of wild pitches, 13 in all.
He was no workhorse. Complete games once were common, as we all know, but now are rare. Only 15 CGs were recorded in the National League this year, and starters worked at least eight full innings on just 46 occasions. Sandy Alcantara of the Miami Marlins led in both categories (three complete games, six starts of eight or more innings). Snell’s longest start was seven innings, a threshold he reached only three times.
He wasn’t overwhelmingly effective. Base value (BV) is an excellent measure of a pitcher’s true worth. Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants led the NL this year with a BV of minus-94, which means he surrendered 94 fewer bases than a typical pitcher would have yielded under identical circumstances. (Click here to learn more about BV.) Next in the base-value race were Corbin Burnes of the Milwaukee Brewers (minus-90), Zack Wheeler of the Philadelphia Phillies (minus-86), and Zac Gallen of the Arizona Diamondbacks (minus-80). You have to look down to fifth place to find Snell at minus-67.
He was remarkably easy to run on. San Diego’s catchers have to share the blame here. Twenty-five runners stole bases while Snell was on the mound, the second-worst SB total for any National League pitcher. It was topped by the 28 steals allowed by Patrick Corbin of the Washington Nationals, though Corbin and his catchers managed to gun down 10 attempted thefts. Only one opponent was caught stealing by Snell and his battery mates.
His team didn’t make the playoffs. The Cy is an individual award, yet it usually (not always, but usually) is conferred on a pitcher with one of the year’s best teams. Snell’s Padres underperformed badly in 2023 and missed the playoffs. Four of the pitchers mentioned above — Alcantara, Burnes, Wheeler, and Gallen — anchored the staffs of postseason qualifiers. (Alcantara, it should be noted, had his season cut short by an elbow injury. He underwent Tommy John surgery in early October.)
None of this is meant to dismiss Blake Snell’s Cy Young chances. His sparkling ERA and hefty total of strikeouts have established him as a candidate worthy of consideration. But his recent emergence as the odds-on frontrunner seems to be unwarranted, as made clear by the five points cited above.
So which National League contender is the most deserving? That’s a topic for another time, though I will concede that strong cases can be made for several who have already been mentioned:
Logan Webb led the NL in innings pitched (216) and, as previously noted, in base value (minus-94).
Corbin Burnes held opposing hitters to .549 bases per out (BPO), the stingiest ratio among the league’s qualified pitchers, those who worked at least 162 innings.
Zack Wheeler was the only NL starter to pile up more than 200 strikeouts while issuing fewer than 40 unintentional walks. (His totals were 212 and 39.)
Zac Gallen finished second in the league in wins (17), second in innings (210), and third in strikeouts (220).
And, to confuse the picture a bit further, let me toss in one more candidate. Atlanta’s Spencer Strider emerged as the only 20-game winner in the NL this season, thanks in large part to his league-leading total of 281 strikeouts. Some of Strider’s other stats weren’t so impressive — certainly not his 3.86 ERA — but he definitely deserves to be considered along with Blake Snell and the other top contenders.
This year’s Cy Young voters need to approach their task without any preconceptions about frontrunners. They have much to consider before the winner’s name is announced next month.