Shortstops Elvis Andrus and Kevin Newman have known good times in the major leagues.
Andrus finished second in American League balloting for Rookie of the Year in 2009, then pushed his batting average as high as .302 with the Rangers in 2016. Newman busted out with 12 homers and a .308 average for the Pirates in his official rookie year of 2019.
J.A. Happ and Jake Arrieta have scaled similar heights as pitchers.
Happ ran up a sterling 20-4 mark for the Blue Jays in 2016. Arrieta won the National League’s Cy Young Award the previous season, going 22-6 with a 1.77 earned run average for the Cubs.
That was then. This is now.
Andrus (now with the Athletics) and Newman are struggling badly in 2021. Andrus posted an unimpressive batting average of .235 over the first four months of the season, but his anemic on-base percentage of .279 was especially glaring. Newman’s numbers through the end of July were even worse: .216 BA, .254 OBP.
The same with the two pitchers. Happ (who has since been traded to the Cardinals) went 5-6 for the Twins with an astronomical ERA of 6.77 over four months. Arrieta (back with the Cubs after a sojourn in Philadelphia) was similarly ineffective at 5-10, 6.20.
I use a different yardstick to track the performances of batters and pitchers. Base value (BV) measures the number of bases a batter reaches or a pitcher surrenders, then compares the sum to the major-league average.
Andrus and Newman respectively amassed the worst BVs among all batters in the American and National Leagues through July 31, making them the frontrunners for my mythical Least Valuable Player Awards.
Consider this example: Newman piled up 120 bases through hits, walks, hit batsmen, stolen bases, and sacrifices over the four-month period, while making 279 outs. The typical big-league hitter in 2021 has reached .685 bases per out (BPO), which would translate to 191 bases under Newman’s circumstances (.685 x 279). His actual total is 71 below that benchmark, giving him a BV of minus-71, the worst in the NL and indeed in the majors.
Andrus has a narrow lead over Andrelton Simmons of the Twins in the AL LVP standings: minus-49 to minus-48.
Negative BVs are terrible for hitters, as we’ve seen, but they’re beautiful for pitchers. The problem for Happ was that he allowed 267 bases while securing 293 outs for the Twins. The typical pitcher (.685 x 293) would have yielded 201 bases, thereby leaving Happ with a BV of plus-66, worst in the AL.
That puts Happ atop the standings for my fictitious Milt Gaston Award, the opposite of a Cy Young trophy. (The Gaston is named after the pitcher with the worst winning percentage accumulated by any big-league pitcher with at least 250 decisions.) Arrieta’s BV of plus-58 puts him in the lead for the NL’s Gaston.
One good piece of news for Happ. He has switched leagues, so his plus-66 is locked in stone. Just three bases behind in the American League is Mike Foltynewicz of the Rangers, who has two months to jump into the lead.
Below are lists of the batters and pitchers who suffered the most during the first four months of 2021, followed by the worst base values on every team.
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American League LVP
1. Elvis Andrus, Athletics, -49
2. Andrelton Simmons, Twins, -48
3. Jose Trevino, Rangers, -39
4. Austin Hedges, Indians, -38
4. Jarred Kelenic, Mariners, -38
6. Jake Bauers, Indians-Mariners, -35
6. Maikel Franco, Orioles, -35
8. Kelvin Gutierrez, Royals-Orioles, -34
8. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers, -34
8. Martin Maldonado, Astros, -34
National League LVP
1. Kevin Newman, Pirates, -71
2. Jackie Bradley Jr., Brewers, -47
3. Erik Gonzalez, Pirates, -44
4. Sandy Leon, Marlins, -37
4. Eugenio Suarez, Reds, -37
6. Joshua Fuentes, Rockies, -36
7. Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks, -35
8. Jason Heyward, Cubs, -30
9. Alec Bohm, Phillies, -28
9. Andrew Knapp, Phillies, -28
American League Milt Gaston
1. J.A. Happ, Twins, 66
2. Mike Foltynewicz, Rangers, 63
3. Justus Sheffield, Mariners, 57
4. Garrett Richards, Red Sox, 55
5. Matt Shoemaker, Twins, 51
6. Brad Keller, Royals, 45
6. Jorge Lopez, Orioles, 45
8. Marco Gonzales, Mariners, 44
8. Jordan Lyles, Rangers, 44
10. Sam Hentges, Indians, 43
National League Milt Gaston
1. Jake Arrieta, Cubs, 58
2. Vince Velasquez, Phillies, 44
3. Patrick Corbin, Nationals, 41
3. Jon Lester, Nationals-Cardinals, 41
5. Mitch Keller, Pirates, 40
6. Jerad Eickhoff, Mets, 37
6. Chi Chi Gonzalez, Rockies, 37
8. Matt Moore, Phillies, 36
8. Blake Snell, Padres, 36
10. Chase De Jong, Pirates, 35
Team tailenders
Angels: (B) Juan Lagares, -29; (P) Dylan Bundy, 38
Astros: (B) Martin Maldonado, -34; (P) Joe Smith, 20
Athletics: (B) Elvis Andrus, -49; (P) Jesus Luzardo, 25
Blue Jays: (B) Rowdy Tellez, -18; (P) Trent Thornton, 24
Braves: (B) Cristian Pache, -22; (P) Drew Smyly, 22
Brewers: (B) Jackie Bradley Jr., -47; (P) Josh Lindblom, 28
Cardinals: (B) Yadier Molina, -23; (P) Daniel Ponce de Leon and Jake Woodford, 22
Cubs: (B) Jason Heyward, -30; (P) Jake Arrieta, 58
Diamondbacks: (B) Nick Ahmed, -35; (P) Matt Peacock, 33
Dodgers: (B) Cody Bellinger, -24; (P) Garrett Cleavinger, 12
Giants: (B) Mike Tauchman, -21; (P) Gregory Santos, 12
Indians: (B) Austin Hedges, -38; (P) Sam Hentges, 43
Mariners: (B) Jarred Kelenic, -38; (P) Justus Sheffield, 57
Marlins: (B) Sandy Leon, -37; (P) Ross Detwiler, 25
Mets: (B) Kevin Pillar, -27; (P) Jerad Eickhoff, 37
Nationals: (B) Andrew Stevenson, -19; (P) Patrick Corbin and Jon Lester, 41
Orioles: (B) Maikel Franco, -35; (P) Jorge Lopez, 45
Padres: (B) Ha-Seong Kim, -21; (P) Blake Snell, 36
Phillies: (B) Alec Bohm and Andrew Knapp, -28; (P) Vince Velasquez, 44
Pirates: (B) Kevin Newman, -71; (P) Mitch Keller, 40
Rangers: (B) Jose Trevino, -39; (P) Mike Foltynewicz, 63
Rays: (B) Kevin Kiermaier, -25; (P) Michael Wacha, 15
Red Sox: (B) Marwin Gonzalez, -30; (P) Garrett Richards, 55
Reds: (B) Eugenio Suarez, -37; (P) Vladimir Gutierrez, 32
Rockies: (B) Joshua Fuentes, -36; (P) Chi Chi Gonzalez, 37
Royals: (B) Hunter Dozier, -29; (P) Brad Keller, 45
Tigers: (B) JaCoby Jones, -28; (P) Jose Urena, 35
Twins: (B) Andrelton Simmons, -48; (P) J.A. Happ, 66
White Sox: (B) Danny Mendick, -17; (P) Zack Burdi, 14
Yankees: (B) Miguel Andujar, -19; (P) Nick Nelson, 16