Streaking to success (or failure)
A few of baseball’s longest runs could be coming to an end
The Philadelphia Phillies are in danger of breaking a pair of streaks.
Well, danger isn’t the precise word. The fan base in eastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey is actually quite excited about their club’s change of direction.
The Phillies have been mediocre for a long time — ever since, in fact, they wrapped up five straight years of playoff appearances in 2011.
They went 102-60 in that final glorious season, then plunged to 81-81 in 2012 and 73-89 in each of the two following years. They haven’t been above the midpoint since.
That’s nine seasons with winning percentages of .500 or lower, by far the worst current big-league streak without a positive outcome. The collective record for the stumbling Phillies was 616 wins and 740 losses (.454) between 2012 and 2020.
But that sorry string could be coming to an end in 2021, as the Phils soar in the rarefied air above .500 and contend for the National League East title.
That brings up Philadelphia’s second unhappy streak — nine straight seasons without a playoff appearance. Only the Mariners have done worse, missing the postseason 19 consecutive years. Seattle is a longshot to make the playoffs in 2021, but the Phillies have a real chance.
I’ve compiled rankings of the longest streaks in six categories as we near this year’s stretch drive. Some are a bit surprising (did you know that the Yankees have been above .500 for 28 straight seasons?), while others are entirely predictable (the Dodgers are enjoying the longest runs of playoff appearances and seasons with at least 90 wins).
Two of the six categories — those for 90-plus wins or losses — exclude 2020’s truncated 60-game schedule for obvious reasons. The other four sections include last year.
The top five clubs are listed in each category, with the initial season of each streak in parentheses. Then come a few of my predictions, admittedly a somewhat risky business with 40 or so games remaining to be played in 2021.
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Consecutive seasons better than .500
1. Yankees (1993), 28
2. Cardinals (2008), 13
3. Dodgers (2011), 10
4. Indians (2013), 8
5. Cubs (2015), 6
Notes: The Yankees last dipped below .500 in 1992, when they went 76-86. They proceeded to go 2,556-1,807 (.586) between 1993 and 2020. And, despite their struggles earlier this year, they seem a good bet to extend their streak to 29 seasons in 2021. The Dodgers are also guaranteed a winning record in 2021, but there’s a very real possibility that the other three clubs (Cardinals, Indians, and Cubs) will fall off this list.
Consecutive seasons of .500 or worse
1. Phillies (2012), 9
2. Angels (2016), 5
2. Royals (2016), 5
4. Giants (2017), 4
4. Orioles (2017), 4
4. Rangers (2017), 4
4. Tigers (2017), 4
Notes: The Phillies, as noted above, have a decent chance of finishing better than .500. But the Giants are the real stars of this group. They’ve remained comfortably above .600 all year, essentially clinching the end of their four-season drought. The Angels and Tigers are flirting with .500 themselves, but the other three teams (Royals, Orioles, and Rangers) are certain to stay in sub-.500 territory.
Consecutive seasons with 90 or more wins
1. Dodgers (2013), 7
2. Indians (2016), 4
3. Astros (2017), 3
3. Yankees (2017), 3
5. Athletics (2018), 2
5. Braves (2018), 2
5. Rays (2018), 2
Notes: The Dodgers are on track for 95 to 100 wins this year, which means their streak of 90-plus victories will continue. The Astros and Rays are almost certain to join Los Angeles in this elite group once again, and the Yankees and Athletics have a shot. But, barring a late-season turnaround, you can forget about the Indians and Braves. They might find it a challenge to reach 85 wins apiece.
Consecutive seasons with 90 or more losses
1. Padres (2016), 4
2. Tigers (2017), 3
3. Marlins (2018), 2
3. Orioles (2018), 2
3. Royals (2018), 2
Notes: The Padres will be disappearing from this list at the end of the 2021 schedule. San Diego is on pace for 90 victories, not 90 defeats. The Tigers have surprised the experts by climbing to the vicinity of .500, perhaps putting their 90-loss seasons in the rearview mirror. But there’s very little hope for the Marlins, Orioles, and Royals. They’re well on the way to extending their respective streaks to three years each.
Consecutive playoff appearances
1. Dodgers (2013), 8
2. Astros (2017), 4
2. Yankees (2017), 4
4. Athletics (2018), 3
4. Braves (2018), 3
4. Brewers (2018), 3
Notes: It certainly appears that the Dodgers are once again playoff-bound, though there are plausible scenarios that could leave them without a berth (especially if the Reds remain hot). Let’s assume, however, that Los Angeles makes it again. The Astros and Brewers have clear paths to 2021 divisional titles, while the Braves are in a dogfight in the NL East. Wild cards seem to be the best hope for the Yankees and Athletics.
Consecutive playoff absences
1. Mariners (2002), 19
2. Phillies (2012), 9
3. Angels (2015), 6
3. Tigers (2015), 6
5. Pirates (2016), 5
5. Royals (2016), 5
Notes: There has been a flurry of hope in Seattle this season, what with the Mariners basking on the sunny side of .500 for a change. But a wild-card berth still seems a longshot, which means the franchise’s playoff drought is likely to reach 20 seasons. The Phillies have a chance of emerging from the three-team race in the NL East, but the others (Angels, Tigers, Pirates, and Royals) will be watching the playoffs on TV again this year.