Shohei Ohtani of the Angels and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays received more publicity — Ohtani especially — but Bryce Harper of the Phillies was the most productive batter in the big leagues in 2021.
That’s my somewhat surprising verdict, though it’s not simply an opinion. It’s grounded on my annual measure of base value, BV for short.
A quick refresher: My calculation of BV begins with another of my favorite stats, bases per out (BPO). That’s a ratio of the number of bases a player reaches (through hits, walks, hit batsmen, stolen bases, and sacrifices) and the number of outs he makes.
Harper, for instance, piled up 424 bases in 2021, dwarfing his total of 358 outs. That gave him a BPO of 1.184, which was the best among all batters in either league who made at least 502 plate appearances (the threshold to qualify for the batting title).
Two other National League qualifiers — Juan Soto of the Nationals (1.129 BPO) and Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres (1.081) — also outproduced the American League leaders, Ohtani at 1.067 and Guerrero at 1.050. No other batter surmounted the magic 1.000 BPO barrier.
But two more steps are necessary to calculate a player’s BV. The first is to multiply his number of outs by .690, which was the collective BPO for all big-league batters in 2021. Here’s the math for Harper: 358 (his outs) times .690 (the overall BPO), which yields 247 (the number of bases a typical batter would have reached under Harper’s circumstances).
The second step is to subtract the latter number from the player’s actual base count. Again for Harper: 424 (his bases) minus 247 (the equivalent for an average hitter), which yields a BV of 177.
That means Harper generated 177 more bases for the Phillies than a typical replacement would have reached — easily the best BV in the National League and, indeed, the majors. Guerrero and Ohtani tied for the American League with base values of 158.
Look below to see the top 10 base values in each league, as well as the 10 batters with the worst BVs. Here are a few odds and ends to consider as you contemplate the standings:
Harper was not the leader in the total number of bases reached in 2021. That honor belonged to Guerrero, who amassed 461 bases. But BV is a measure of efficiency. The Toronto first baseman went to the plate 99 times more than the Philadelphia right fielder, and Guerrero piled up 81 extra outs. That’s why Harper posted the higher BV.
Perhaps the most amazing performance in the top 10 for either league was that of Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Braves, who finished eighth in the NL with a BV of 102. Acuna appeared in only 82 games before suffering a torn ACL on July 10, which means his half-season of work was more productive than the full seasons of all but seven batters in his league.
It’s rare to average even a half-run per game in base value, which would translate to a final BV of 81. Only 27 batters crossed that threshold this year.
A sizable majority of hitters finished the season with negative base values, though most remained fairly close to a final score of zero. There were 115 positive BVs in the American League, compared to 304 on the minus side. The imbalance was considerably worse in the National League, where pitchers still go to the plate. The NL count for 2021: 152 positive BVs, 448 negative.
Kevin Newman of the Pirates posted the worst base value in either league this year. The typical big leaguer would have reached 288 bases while matching the Pirates shortstop’s total of 417 outs. But Newman’s total was only 203 bases, leaving him with an unhappy BV of minus-85.
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American League BV top 10
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays, 158
1. Shohei Ohtani, Angels, 158
3. Matt Olson, Athletics, 113
3. Jose Ramirez, Indians, 113
5. Cedric Mullins, Orioles, 109
6. Aaron Judge, Yankees, 102
7. Marcus Semien, Blue Jays, 99
8. Kyle Tucker, Astros, 97
9. Rafael Devers, Red Sox, 87
10. Brandon Lowe, Rays, 85
National League BV top 10
1. Bryce Harper, Phillies, 177
2. Juan Soto, Nationals, 167
3. Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres, 139
4. Trea Turner, Nationals-Dodgers, 107
5. Freddie Freeman, Braves, 104
5. Bryan Reynolds, Pirates, 104
7. Joey Votto, Reds, 103
8. Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves, 102
9. Max Muncy, Dodgers, 95
10. Nick Castellanos, Reds, 94
American League BV bottom 10
1. Andrelton Simmons, Twins, -80
2. David Fletcher, Angels, -76
3. Elvis Andrus, Athletics, -60
4. Austin Hedges, Indians, -59
5. Maikel Franco, Orioles, -56
6. Martin Maldonado, Astros, -55
7. Pat Valaika, Orioles, -51
8. Jose Trevino, Rangers, -48
9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers, -44
10. Marwin Gonzalez, Astros-Red Sox, -43
National League BV bottom 10
1. Kevin Newman, Pirates, -85
2. Jackie Bradley Jr., Brewers, -83
3. Cody Bellinger, Dodgers, -53
4. Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks, -50
5. Michael Perez, Pirates, -46
6. Sandy Leon, Marlins, -45
7. Erik Gonzalez, Pirates, -44
8. Andrew Knapp, Phillies, -42
8. Yadier Molina, Cardinals, -42
10. David Bote, Cubs, -41
10. Joshua Fuentes, Rockies, -41
10. James McCann, Mets, -41