Most of the top pitchers in the major leagues are right-handed. You know who I’m talking about: Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander, just to cite the most obvious examples.
It’s only logical that righties hold a numerical advantage. More than 85 percent of all people are right-handed, as are more than two-thirds of all pitchers.
Yet several lefties are solidly effective on the mound, and they’re the focus of today’s discussion. We’re looking for the best left-handed starters in today’s game, based on an analysis of statistics from the past three seasons.
At the top of the standings is Carlos Rodon, who pitched for the Chicago White Sox and San Francisco Giants between 2020 and 2022 and has since moved on to the New York Yankees.
Rodon held opposing hitters to a .199 batting average and .314 slugging percentage over the three-year span. No other left-handed starter performed as well in either category.
My rankings are confined to the 45 lefties who made at least 35 starts during the 2020-2022 span. (The formula took all of each pitcher’s statistics into account, even those occasions when he came out of the bullpen.)
This is the first installment of my rankings of the top big-league pitchers — with righty starters and relievers on both sides to follow on subsequent Thursdays — so let me give you a quick rundown of the 10 categories in which they’re rated:
Wins above replacement. Total WAR for 2020 through 2022, as calculated by Baseball Reference.
Wins-above-replacement rate. A ratio of WAR per 200 innings pitched.
Earned run average. The ratio of earned runs that a pitcher surrendered per nine innings in 2020-2022.
Batting average. Hits allowed divided by at-bats, covering the three-year period.
Slugging percentage. The 2020-2022 rate of total bases (by hits) allowed per at-bat.
Bases per out. A ratio of all bases that a pitcher allowed to the outs that he obtained. BPO is figured in three steps: (1) Add up the bases surrendered through hits, walks, hit batters, and stolen bases, as well as the number of sacrifice hits and sacrifice flies. (2) Calculate outs by subtracting hits from at-bats, then adding double plays, caught stealings, sacrifice hits, and sacrifice flies. (3) Divide bases by outs.
Strikeouts. The total for 2020 through 2022.
Strikeout rate. The average number of strikeouts per nine innings.
Games started. The total for the three-year period.
Wins. Another three-year sum.
My formula ranks all pitchers from top to bottom, then assigns scores of 1,000 points to the leader and 0 points to the tailender in each group. Everybody else’s score is determined by their relative performances between top and bottom.
Rodon is followed in the rankings of left-handed starters by Julio Urias of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Max Fried of the Atlanta Braves, Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers, and Framber Valdez of the Houston Astros.
Today’s ratings are the latest in a series that has been rolling out every Thursday since the first week of April. Click these links to see the rankings for catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, left fielders, center fielders, right fielders, and designated hitters.
Baseball’s top 15 left-handed starters are listed below, with statistical breakdowns for the top five.
Subscribe — free — to Baseball’s Best (and Worst)
A new installment will arrive in your email each weekday morning
1. Carlos Rodon (2020-2022)
Score: 1,000 points
WAR: 10.2 total, 6.41 per 200 IP
Averages: 2.80 ERA, .199 BA, .314 SLG, .532 BPO
Strikeouts: 428 total, 12.1 per 9 IP
Totals: 57 GS, 27 W
Notes: A forearm injury delayed Rodon’s debut with the Yankees this year after effective seasons for his previous employers. He went 13-5 for the White Sox in 2021, finishing fifth in the race for the American League’s Cy Young Award. He floated to San Francisco as a free agent last year, putting up a 14-8 record for the Giants and placing sixth in the NL’s Cy Young contest.
2. Julio Urias (2020-2022)
Score: 984 points
WAR: 10.8 total, 5.20 per 200 IP
Averages: 2.66 ERA, .210 BA, .345 SLG, .529 BPO
Strikeouts: 406 total, 8.8 per 9 IP
Totals: 73 GS, 40 W
Notes: Urias is overshadowed on the Dodgers’ staff by iconic lefty Clayton Kershaw, though the lack of publicity is a bit unfair. Urias racked up 20 wins for Los Angeles in 2021, then led the National League with a 2.16 ERA last year. He ran third in balloting for the 2022 Cy Young Award.
3. Max Fried (2020-2022)
Score: 962 points
WAR: 12.9 total, 6.34 per 200 IP
Averages: 2.68 ERA, .224 BA, .335 SLG, .523 BPO
Strikeouts: 378 total, 8.4 per 9 IP
Totals: 69 GS, 35 W
Notes: Fried posted identical 14-7 records for the Braves the past two years after recording seven victories without a loss in the Covid-shortened 2020 season. He was the runner-up to Miami’s Sandy Alcantara in the 2022 National League Cy Young competition.
4. Clayton Kershaw (2020-2022)
Score: 856 points
WAR: 7.9 total, 5.16 per 200 IP
Averages: 2.76 ERA, .211 BA, .346 SLG, .503 BPO
Strikeouts: 343 total, 10.1 per 9 IP
Totals: 54 GS, 28 W
Notes: A future Hall of Famer. The 35-year-old Kershaw recorded his 200th career victory early in 2023. He went 12-3 last year with a 2.28 ERA and 137 strikeouts in 126.1 innings, demonstrating his continuing ability to pitch at an elite level despite his advanced (for baseball) age.
5. Framber Valdez (2020-2022)
Score: 827 points
WAR: 7.3 total, 3.59 per 200 IP
Averages: 3.05 ERA, .225 BA, .319 SLG, .552 BPO
Strikeouts: 395 total, 8.7 per 9 IP
Totals: 63 GS, 33 W
Notes: Valdez pitched 201.1 innings last year, the heaviest workload for any American League pitcher. He won 17 games during the regular season, but his biggest victories were the two that he locked down against the Phillies in the World Series.
Next 10
6. Robbie Ray
8. Blake Snell
10. Ranger Suarez
12. Tyler Anderson
13. Martin Perez
14. Patrick Sandoval
15. Sean Manaea