When the going gets tough

These 10 clubs had playoff spots in their grasp at the start of September, only to falter badly down the stretch

Yes, opening day was a bit more than a month ago, but this unlikeliest of baseball seasons is already entering its stretch run.

That means heroes are poised to take the stage. A few teams are certain to get unusually hot this September, clinching playoff berths and going farther in the postseason than anybody expected.

The flip side is also true. A couple of clubs will suddenly go stone cold, thereby missing the playoffs and being immortalized for their stunning collapses.

It’s those latter teams that we’re interested in today.

The standings at the end of August tell us a lot about the upcoming postseason. Five of every six clubs (83.8%) that would have made the playoffs on the morning of September 1 actually qualified in October, according to our study of 50 seasons from the start of divisional play in 1969 through last year. (We excluded 1994 because it had no postseason.) 

But that leaves the other 16.2%. A total of 52 teams in that 50-year span plummeted from a playoff spot as of August 31 to total inactivity a month later.

The 10 worst are listed below, based on their winning percentages for the regular season’s games in September and October. They’re in reverse order, counting down to baseball’s worst stretch-run collapse in half a century.

10. Kansas City Royals (1995)

• Manager: Bob Boone

• Record after Aug. 31 game: 58-56 (.509)

• Status after Aug. 31 game: Wild-card leader (AL Central)

• September/October record: 12-18 (.400)

• Record at end of season: 70-74 (.486)

• Games behind division leader: 30.0

• Notes: Kansas City was never in a comfortable position. It held an edge of .0002 over Seattle and Texas for the sole AL wild-card position at the beginning of September. The Mariners went 20-9 the rest of the way to seize the AL West title, while the Yankees closed with a 22-6 record to pass the Royals for the wild card. A six-game losing streak in mid-September sealed Kansas City’s fate.

9. California Angels (1995)

• Manager: Marcel Lachemann

• Record after Aug. 31 game: 67-50 (.573)

• Status after Aug. 31 game: Division leader (AL West)

• September/October record: 11-17 (.393)

• Record at end of season: 78-67 (.538)

• Games behind division leader: 1.0

• Notes: California possessed a cushy 7.5-game lead over Seattle and Texas as August came to a close. But the Mariners got hot at the right time (see above), while the Angels limped to the finish. California was outscored 57-27 during a nine-game losing streak that dragged from the 13th to the 23rd of September.

8. Boston Red Sox (1974)

• Manager: Darrell Johnson

• Record after Aug. 31 game: 72-59 (.550)

• Status after Aug. 31 game: Division leader (AL East)

• September/October record: 12-19 (.387)

• Record at end of season: 84-78 (.519)

• Games behind division leader: 7.0

• Notes: The Red Sox were three games in front of the Yankees at the beginning of the stretch run. But it was the third-place Orioles who turned out to pose the biggest threat, winning 25 of their final 31 games to vault past both Boston and New York. The Red Sox doomed their chances by starting September with six straight defeats.

7. Anaheim Angels (1998)

• Manager: Terry Collins

• Record after Aug. 31 game: 76-62 (.551)

• Status after Aug. 31 game: Division leader (AL West)

• September/October record: 9-15 (.375)

• Record at end of season: 85-77 (.525)

• Games behind division leader: 3.0

• Notes: Anaheim was locked in a battle with Texas for the divisional lead, holding an advantage of 2.5 games over the Rangers at the start of September. Texas went 15-10 the rest of the way — a nice record, though nothing exceptional. But it was good enough to pass the slumping Angels, who lost 10 of 13 games during a mid-month swoon.

6. Milwaukee Brewers (2014)

• Manager: Ron Roenicke

• Record after Aug. 31 game: 73-63 (.537)

• Status after Aug. 31 game: Division leader (NL Central)

• September/October record: 9-17 (.346)

• Record at end of season: 82-80 (.506)

• Games behind division leader: 8.0

• Notes: Milwaukee was tied with St. Louis for first place when play wrapped up on August 31, and Pittsburgh was only two games back. The Cardinals and Pirates put the pedal to the metal, posting identical 17-9 marks the rest of the way. The Brewers flipped that record (9-17) to finish a distant third, winning only three games after September 16.

4. (tie) Chicago Cubs (1969)

• Manager: Leo Durocher

• Record after Aug. 31 game: 83-52 (.615)

• Status after Aug. 31 game: Division leader (NL East)

• September/October record: 9-18 (.333)

• Record at end of season: 92-70 (.568)

• Games behind division leader: 8.0

• Notes: This seemed, at long last, to be the Cubs’ lucky year. They led the Mets by 4.5 games heading into September — a seemingly safe margin — yet the wheels fell off after Labor Day. Chicago was outscored 51-19 during an eight-game losing streak early in the month. New York got red-hot at the same time, winning 24 of its final 32 games to run away with the divisional crown. 

4. (tie) Atlanta Braves (2011)

• Manager: Fredi Gonzalez

• Record after Aug. 31 game: 80-55 (.593)

• Status after Aug. 31 game: Wild-card leader (NL East)

• September/October record: 9-18 (.333)

• Record at end of season: 89-73 (.549)

• Games behind division leader: 13.0

• Notes: A playoff spot seemed to be a lock for the Braves, who led the Cardinals by 8.5 games in the wild-card race as of September 1. But Atlanta posted the worst record in the National League from that point on, allowing St. Louis to clinch the wild card by the razor-thin margin of a single game. The Braves’ season ended appropriately with a five-game losing streak.

3. Houston Astros (1996)

• Manager: Terry Collins

• Record after Aug. 31 game: 74-63 (.540)

• Status after Aug. 31 game: Division leader (NL Central)

• September/October record: 8-17 (.320)

• Record at end of season: 82-80 (.506)

• Games behind division leader: 6.0

• Notes: The Astros held a 2.5-game divisional edge over St. Louis at the start of September, but a nine-game losing streak between the 13th and the 24th sealed their doom. The Cards breezed by Houston with a 17-9 mark in the final month. (This, as you might have noticed, is the second time that Terry Collins appears in this rundown. See the 1998 Angels above.) 

2. Arizona Diamondbacks (2018)

• Manager: Torrey Lovullo

• Record after Aug. 31 game: 74-61 (.548)

• Status after Aug. 31 game: Division leader (NL West)

• September/October record: 8-19 (.296)

• Record at end of season: 82-80 (.506)

• Games behind division leader: 9.5

• Notes: Arizona found itself in a three-way NL West battle, leading Los Angeles by a single game and Colorado by a game and half as August came to an end. The Dodgers and Rockies scored 19 victories apiece after that, while the Diamondbacks withered away. They endured four separate streaks of at least three consecutive losses during September.

1. Boston Red Sox (2011)

• Manager: Terry Francona

• Record after Aug. 31 game: 83-52 (.615)

• Status after Aug. 31 game: Division leader (AL East)

• September/October record: 7-20 (.259)

• Record at end of season: 90-72 (.556)

• Games behind division leader: 7.0

• Notes: The divisional crown was still up in the air at the start of September, with the Red Sox leading the Yankees by just 1.5 games. But the wild card seemed a certainty. The Red Sox were nine games ahead of the Rays, their closest competitor for the AL’s final postseason spot. New York (16-12) and Tampa Bay (17-10) both played reasonably well down the stretch, but they owed their playoff appearances to Boston’s epic collapse. The Red Sox’ pitching staff posted a miserable ERA of 5.84 down the stretch.