Last season was a good one for the Chicago White Sox. The upcoming years could be much, much better.
The White Sox qualified for the playoffs at the conclusion of 2020’s truncated schedule, making their first postseason appearance in 12 years. My computer anticipates bigger things ahead, predicting that the Sox will post the highest team score in the major leagues in 2021.
A quick refresher course on a couple of points:
I have developed a computer program that compares each team’s record from 2018 through 2020 against the corresponding statistics for every club that has taken the field since the advent of free agency in 1976. My program looks for evidence of improvement or decline in current teams, matching them with similar trends from the past. (Click here to learn more.)
Team score (TS) is plotted on a 100-point scale, based on a club’s win-loss record, postseason performance, offensive firepower, and skill in pitching and defense. Scores can be compared for teams that played in different seasons, offering an idea of their relative strength. (Click here for details.)
The 2015 Cubs emerged as the closest match for the 2020 White Sox. Take a look at the three-year records for those Cubs, with win-loss record, winning percentage, and team score:
2013: 66-96, .407, TS 28.566
2014: 73-89, .451, TS 33.106
2015: 97-65, .599, TS 64.366
And now consider the similarities in the White Sox’ record from 2018 through the recent year. They demonstrated the same abject misery in the first season, similar improvement in the second, and an almost identical blossoming in the third:
2018: 62-100, .383, TS 27.388
2019: 72-89, .447, TS 35.518
2020: 35-25, .583, TS 63.906
My formula is based on the premise that past performance can give us a hint of future success. The Cubs broke through in 2016 to seize their first world championship in more than a century. The White Sox aren’t as desperate — they won a World Series 15 years ago — but they would seem to be poised for a similar breakthrough.
I have used this information to predict the standings for the coming three seasons. Here’s how my system works: I began by identifying the five closest matches for each current club, then generated a weighted average of their records in subsequent seasons. (The closest match naturally receives the greatest weight.)
Today’s focus is on the American League Central, the division in which the White Sox play. Let’s start with last year’s standings. You’ll see each team’s 2020 win-loss record, followed by the name and year of its closest match and the W-L and TS for that club. Any ties in these standings (or those below) are broken by team score:
Twins, 36-24, Cardinals 2001 (93-69, TS 62.837)
White Sox, 35-25, Cubs 2015 (97-65, TS 64.366)
Indians, 35-25, Reds 1981 (66-42, TS 59.552)
Royals, 26-34, Brewers 1986 (77-84, TS 36.963)
Tigers, 23-35, Braves 1989 (63-97, TS 23.101)
If we examine the five closest matches for each club, a strong case can be made for a White Sox explosion. The 2015 Cubs are a major factor, of course, but three of the Sox’ other matches — the 2018 Athletics, 1978 Brewers, and 2013 Pirates — also prospered in their next seasons, averaging 93 wins.
There’s only problem. The Minnesota Twins are also very good — they won the division the past two years — and they’re not going away. The computer believes the Twins will edge the Sox by a single game again in 2021, though it remains more impressed with Chicago’s overall skill level.
The Sox are predicted to finish the coming season with a TS of 65.894 — the highest in the big leagues, comfortably ahead of Minnesota’s 61.379. That could be a harbinger of postseason success.
Here are the projected AL Central standings for 2021:
Twins, 95-67
White Sox, 94-68
Royals, 83-79
Indians, 81-81
Tigers, 67-95
I have extended my predictions through 2023, more for my amusement than anything else. My computer envisions a Cleveland rebound in 2022, resulting in a divisional tie with Chicago. But the White Sox win the TS tiebreaker:
White Sox, 90-72
Indians, 90-72
Tigers, 86-76
Royals, 86-76
Twins, 85-77
You’ll notice that the AL Central is expected to be unusually competitive in 2022, with all five clubs finishing above .500. That will change in 2023, with the Twins roaring back from last place to claim another divisional crown, while the Indians plummet to last place:
Twins, 94-68
White Sox, 88-74
Tigers, 83-79
Royals, 83-79
Indians, 75-87
We’ll revisit these predictions after the season. You can get a closer look at my fearless forecast for the American League Central below.
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Chicago White Sox
2020 record: 35-25
2020 TS: 63.906; TS rank: 4 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Cubs 2015 (97-65, TS 64.366); 2. Athletics 2018 (97-65, TS 60.810); 3. Cubs 1989 (93-69, TS 63.654); 4. Brewers 1978 (93-69, TS 64.905); 5. Pirates 2013 (94-68, TS 62.354)
What happened to top two matches: The Cubs secured a playoff spot in 2015, their first in seven years. They did considerably better in the following season, winning the 2016 world title, their first since 1908. The Athletics maintained a strong, steady course after 2018, playing .600 ball and landing a pair of playoff berths the next two seasons.
2021 prediction: 94-68, TS 65.894 (1 of 30)
2022 prediction: 90-72, TS 56.941 (6 of 30)
2023 prediction: 88-74, TS 51.371 (10 of 30)
Cleveland Indians
2020 record: 35-25
2020 TS: 59.522; TS rank: 9 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Reds 1981 (66-42, TS 59.552); 2. Reds 1979 (90-71, TS 60.077); 3. Pirates 1977 (96-66, TS 61.073); 4. Phillies 2007 (89-73, TS 61.939); 5. Angels 2007 (94-68, TS 58.489)
What happened to top two matches: The Reds posted the National League’s best record in 1981, yet failed to qualify for the playoffs under the quirky system for that strike-ridden season. They tumbled below .500 the next three years. The 1979 version of the same franchise did make the postseason, its last appearance until 1990.
2021 prediction: 81-81, TS 46.655 (16 of 30)
2022 prediction: 90-72, TS 55.442 (8 of 30)
2023 prediction: 75-87, TS 34.319 (28 of 30)
Detroit Tigers
2020 record: 23-35
2020 TS: 22.457; TS rank: 28 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Braves 1989 (63-97, TS 23.101); 2. Braves 1978 (69-93, TS 22.794); 3. Brewers 2003 (68-94, TS 25.058); 4. Orioles 2010 (66-96, TS 21.513); 5. Pirates 2007 (68-94, TS 21.338)
What happened to top two matches: The 1990 Braves were as bad as their 1989 predecessor. Both squads finished more than 25 games out of first place. But success was around the corner. The Braves would make the postseason every year from 1991 through 2005 (except for the strike season of 1994). The 1978 Braves didn’t prosper as quickly, yet they did make the playoffs four years later.
2021 prediction: 67-95, TS 25.107 (28 of 30)
2022 prediction: 86-76, TS 55.041 (9 of 30)
2023 prediction: 83-79, TS 51.000 (11 of 30)
Kansas City Royals
2020 record: 26-34
2020 TS: 36.579; TS rank: 22 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Brewers 1986 (77-84, TS 36.963); 2. Athletics 2017 (75-87, TS 36.892); 3. Mariners 2012 (75-87, TS 35.899); 4. Mariners 1982 (76-86, TS 36.616); 5. White Sox 2016 (78-84, TS 37.921)
What happened to top two matches: The 1986 Brewers improved substantially in the following season, winning 91 games. They came close to a divisional title in 1988, though they wouldn’t actually make the playoffs for another 20 years. The news was better for the 2017 Athletics, who qualified for postseason play in each of the three subsequent seasons.
2021 prediction: 83-79, TS 46.158 (17 of 30)
2022 prediction: 86-76, TS 51.282 (12 of 30)
2023 prediction: 83-79, TS 46.403 (15 of 30)
Minnesota Twins
2020 record: 36-24
2020 TS: 63.663; TS rank: 5 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Cardinals 2001 (93-69, TS 62.837); 2. Yankees 2018 (100-62, TS 64.936); 3. Red Sox 1999 (94-68, TS 64.648); 4. Expos 1980 (90-72, TS 61.171); 5. Athletics 2013 (96-66, TS 64.237)
What happened to top two matches: The Cardinals made their second straight playoff appearance in 2001, and they extended the streak to three in 2002. They would soar to a 105-57 record and a National League title by 2004. The Yankees were solid in 2018 — posting 100 wins — but they were even better the following season, winning 103 games in 2019.
2021 prediction: 95-67, TS 61.379 (4 of 30)
2022 prediction: 85-77, TS 53.141 (11 of 30)
2023 prediction: 94-68, TS 65.524 (1 of 30)