This is the year for the Orioles.
Baltimore has won the American League East only twice since 1998, but it’s destined to return to the top of division in 2025. So says my history-based prediction system.
My computer program compares each team’s record during the past three seasons (2022-2024) against the corresponding marks for 1,318 clubs from the era of free agency, which began in 1976.
The 2025 forecast for a given team is determined by its 50 closest matches (CMs), the 50 clubs from the past that were most similar to the present-day squad.
My system focuses on the next performance of each CM. The Tampa Bay Rays of 2022-2024, for example, were remarkably similar to the Los Angeles Dodgers of 2008-2010. That congruence inspires a question: What happened to the subsequent Dodgers, specifically the 2011 Los Angeles team?
I totaled up the next-year records of the 50 CMs for each 2025 club, awarding one point for each team that surpassed .500, two more points for a playoff qualification, three additional points for a league pennant, and four extra points for a world championship.
Baltimore emerges from this process with 117 points, easily the most in the AL East. Hence my projected order of finish in 2025:
1. Baltimore Orioles
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Toronto Blue Jays
You’ll find breakdowns for all five teams below. Each summary begins with the club’s 2025 prediction points, followed by its 2024 record, then the next-season results for the 50 CMs. The final line discloses the very closest match of all, the current club’s doppelganger, if you will. (Don’t be alarmed if the next-year record for the closest CM varies from my overall prediction. That happens. What truly matters is the cumulative score for all 50 CMs.)
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1. Baltimore Orioles
2025 prediction points: 117
2024 record: 91-71
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 3 of 50
Won league title in next season: 6 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 24 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 39 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 2014 Reds (76-86)
2. New York Yankees
2025 prediction points: 86
2024 record: 94-68
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 3 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 19 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 35 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 2022 Astros (106-56)
3. Tampa Bay Rays
2025 prediction points: 73
2024 record: 80-82
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 2 of 50
Won league title in next season: 3 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 14 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 28 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 2011 Dodgers (82-79)
4. Boston Red Sox
2025 prediction points: 56
2024 record: 81-81
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 0 of 50
Won league title in next season: 3 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 11 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 25 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 2004 Blue Jays (67-94)
5. Toronto Blue Jays
2025 prediction points: 48
2024 record: 74-88
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 7 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 27 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 2012 Rockies (64-98)