AL West 2022 forecast
Joy will return to Oakland this season, but mark down the Angels for the 2024 title
If you simply looked at the standings, you would think the Oakland Athletics lost a step in 2021.
The A’s dropped to third place in the American League West Division — their lowest finish in four years — and they missed the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
Was it a sign of approaching deterioration? My computer model doesn’t think so, since it predicts that Oakland will win the AL West in 2022 (if and when the season starts).
The Athletics weren’t as weak as their 86-76 record appeared. They boasted the second-best pitching staff in the division, and they also ranked second in batting prowess. Yet they somehow finished four games behind the second-place Seattle Mariners, a club that was weaker both on the mound and at the plate.
My model doesn’t expect a repeat in the upcoming season. It compared the record of each AL West team during the previous three years against the corresponding marks for every big-league club that played during the era of free agency, which began in 1976.
It searched for parallels from the past that might offer hints about the future — an analysis based purely on history, not on roster composition or offseason acquisitions.
And that spells good news for the A’s. Why? Because the computer found that Oakland’s closest match was the 2017-2019 Chicago Cubs.
See for yourself. Below are the Cubs’ wins, losses, winning percentages, and team scores (TS) over the relevant three-year period. (You remember TS, right? It’s a rating on a 100-point scale based on four factors: winning percentage, the differential between runs scored and allowed per game, the differential between bases per out attained by batters and allowed by pitchers, and postseason success.)
2017: 92-70, .568, TS 61.476
2018: 95-68, .583, TS 61.549
2019: 84-78, .519, TS 52.490
And here are the corresponding records for the Athletics over the past three years. You have to agree that the similarity is striking:
2019: 97-65, .599, TS 60.881
2020: 36-24, .600, TS 61.371
2021: 86-76, .531, TS 51.818
The Athletics could very well perform at the same level in 2022 as the Cubs did in 2020, or so my theory goes. If it holds true, Oakland can anticipate a return to its previous form, since the Cubs played .567 ball and won a divisional title in the season following their three-year study period.
My system isn’t quite that simplistic, of course. I actually identified the five closest matches for each club, then averaged their results for seasons subsequent to their three-year spans. That helps to smooth out any unusual results. (You can see every club’s matches in the summaries below. Each is listed with stats for the final of its three seasons. The 2017-2019 Cubs, for example, are shown with their 2019 numbers.)
Four of Oakland’s five matches played better than .500 in the first season after the study period. Among them were the 1977 Baltimore Orioles, who soared to .602, and the 1982 Milwaukee Brewers, who made it all the way to the World Series.
Oakland’s closest matches had an average TS of 55.444, the best for any club in the AL West. And that’s why my computer is picking the A’s to win the division in 2022.
Below are the projected standings for the coming season. The clubs are ranked solely by TS, though the computer has also generated estimates for wins and losses:
1. Oakland Athletics, 89-73, TS 55.444
2. Houston Astros, 83-79, TS 51.221
3. Seattle Mariners, 83-79, TS 46.626
4. Texas Rangers, 76-86, TS 36.141
5. Los Angeles Angels, 75-87, TS 36.138
I went ahead and generated standings for three seasons in all, based on the records of each club’s five matches for the corresponding years. There isn’t much value in issuing predictions as far ahead as 2023 and 2024 — accuracy is a sufficiently large challenge for 2022 — but I’m including those advance forecasts below for their amusement value.
If you’re interested, the Astros are expected to snap back and win the AL West a year from now, while the Angels are ticketed for the 2024 crown.
The five AL West teams are shown in predicted order below. Each is followed by its 2021 record, its five closest matches, the subsequent performances of the top two matches, and my formula’s predictions for 2022, 2023, and 2024.
We’ll move on to the National League East next week.
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1. Oakland Athletics
2021 record: 86-76
2021 TS: 51.818; TS rank: 12 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Cubs 2019 (84-78, TS 52.490); 2. Orioles 1976 (88-74, TS 51.877); 3. Expos 1983 (82-80, TS 51.471); 4. Brewers 1981 (62-47, TS 53.914); 5. Red Sox 2000 (85-77, TS 51.241)
What happened to top two matches: The Cubs, as noted above, marched to a divisional title in the Covid-shortened 2020 season. The Orioles were even stronger after 1976. They won 97 games in 1977, then 90 in 1978, yet they sat out the postseason both times. It was much harder, as you recall, to qualify for the playoffs in those years.
2022 prediction: 89-73, TS 55.444 (Division: 1 of 5; MLB: 8 of 30)
2023 prediction: 85-77, TS 50.088 (Division: 2 of 5; MLB: 6 of 30)
2024 prediction: 86-76, TS 51.916 (Division: 2 of 5; MLB: 9 of 30)
2. Houston Astros
2021 record: 95-67
2021 TS: 74.809; TS rank: 2 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Cardinals 1987 (95-67, TS 73.602); 2. Giants 2012 (94-68, TS 72.475); 3. Phillies 1980 (91-71, TS 75.971); 4. Giants 2014 (88-74, TS 72.008); 5. Yankees 1980 (103-59, TS 71.275)
What happened to top two matches: The Cardinals were maddeningly inconsistent in the seasons after 1987. They fell 10 games below .500 in 1988, jumped 10 games above the line in 1989, then staggered to a 70-92 mark in 1990. The Giants notched only 76 wins in 2013, but rebounded to win the 2014 World Series, their third title in five years.
2022 prediction: 83-79, TS 51.221 (Division: 2 of 5; MLB: 9 of 30)
2023 prediction: 86-76, TS 56.055 (Division: 1 of 5; MLB: 3 of 30)
2024 prediction: 80-82, TS 48.394 (Division: 3 of 5; MLB: 13 of 30)
3. Seattle Mariners
2021 record: 90-72
2021 TS: 45.671; TS rank: 16 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Orioles 2004 (78-84, TS 45.377); 2. Indians 2004 (80-82, TS 44.793); 3. Rangers 1989 (83-79, TS 47.056); 4. Giants 1981 (56-55, TS 45.749); 5. Cubs 1977 (81-81, TS 43.346)
What happened to top two matches: The Orioles followed a sad route after 2004, posting losing records in each of the following seven seasons. The best they could do during that span was 74-88, the worst was 64-98. The Indians, on the other hand, zipped to 93 wins in 2005 and a divisional championship in 2007.
2022 prediction: 83-79, TS 46.626 (Division: 3 of 5; MLB: 13 of 30)
2023 prediction: 78-84, TS 42.282 (Division: 4 of 5; MLB: 20 of 30)
2024 prediction: 74-88, TS 33.284 (Division: 5 of 5; MLB: 29 of 30)
4. Texas Rangers
2021 record: 60-102
2021 TS: 21.157; TS rank: 27 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Phillies 1989 (67-95, TS 20.184); 2. Phillies 1997 (68-94, TS 20.921); 3. Padres 2003 (64-98, TS 22.436); 4. Pirates 2007 (68-94, TS 21.338); 5. Cubs 1981 (38-65, TS 17.954)
What happened to top two matches: Look no further than Philadelphia to envision the Rangers’ future. The 1989 and 1997 versions of the Phillies were remarkably similar. Each remained mired below .500 for three subsequent seasons before bursting forth with an unusually good performance (a World Series appearance in 1993, 86 wins in 2001).
2022 prediction: 76-86, TS 36.141 (Division: 4 of 5; MLB: 27 of 30)
2023 prediction: 74-88, TS 34.785 (Division: 5 of 5; MLB: 26 of 30)
2024 prediction: 75-87, TS 39.643 (Division: 4 of 5; MLB: 21 of 30)
5. Los Angeles Angels
2021 record: 77-85
2021 TS: 37.806; TS rank: 21 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Athletics 1986 (76-86, TS 37.426); 2. Indians 1990 (77-85, TS 37.792); 3. Athletics 1985 (77-85, TS 39.577); 4. Cubs 1992 (78-84, TS 36.106); 5. Padres 2013 (76-86, TS 35.281)
What happened to top two matches: The A’s climbed to a .500 record in 1987, then began a streak of three straight World Series appearances (including one title) in 1988. The immediate future for the Indians was terrible. They staggered to a 57-105 record in 1991. But a World Series was on their horizon in 1995.
2022 prediction: 75-87, TS 36.138 (Division: 5 of 5; MLB: 28 of 30)
2023 prediction: 81-81, TS 46.647 (Division: 3 of 5; MLB: 9 of 30)
2024 prediction: 86-76, TS 56.347 (Division: 1 of 5; MLB: 5 of 30)