It’s the same old, same old in the American League West.
My history-based prediction system envisions the Houston Astros winning the division in 2025, just as they’ve done in every full-length season since 2017.
I’ve compared the record for each AL West club during the past three seasons (2022-2024) against the corresponding marks for 1,318 teams during the era of free agency (which began in 1976), seeking parallels from the past that might offer hints about the future.
I looked specifically for the 50 closest matches (CMs) from the past for each current team, and then examined their subsequent performances.
The 2022-2024 Astros, for example, most closely resembled the 1976-1978 Cincinnati Reds, the famed Big Red Machine that won the ’76 World Series and finished in second place twice during the three-year span. The Reds subsequently went 90-71 and grabbed another divisional title in 1979.
My 2025 prediction for any given club is based on four rungs of a ladder. Each of the current team’s 50 CMs that topped .500 in its following season is worth one point, with a playoff qualification bringing two additional points, a league title another three, and a world championship an extra four.
Houston’s 50 CMs yielded a total of 115 points, one more more than the Seattle Mariners received, setting the stage for a tight AL West race. Here is the predicted order of finish:
1. Houston Astros
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Texas Rangers
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Sacramento Athletics
You’ll find breakdowns for all five teams below. Each summary begins with the club’s 2025 prediction points, followed by its 2024 record, then the next-season results for the 50 CMs. The final line discloses the very closest match of all. (Don’t be alarmed if the next-year record for the closest CM differs from my overall prediction. What truly matters is the cumulative score for all 50 CMs.)
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1. Houston Astros
2025 prediction points: 115
2024 record: 88-73
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 4 of 50
Won league title in next season: 7 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 21 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 36 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 1979 Reds (90-71)
2. Seattle Mariners
2025 prediction points: 114
2024 record: 85-77
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 3 of 50
Won league title in next season: 7 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 21 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 39 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 1998 Dodgers (83-79)
3. Texas Rangers
2025 prediction points: 72
2024 record: 78-84
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 2 of 50
Won league title in next season: 4 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 12 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 28 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 2009 Rockies (92-70)
4. Los Angeles Angels
2025 prediction points: 34
2024 record: 63-99
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 1 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 6 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 15 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 2019 Royals (59-103)
5. Sacramento Athletics
2025 prediction points: 32
2024 record: 69-93
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 1 of 50
Won league title in next season: 2 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 6 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 10 of 50
Closest match of all for 2025: 1977 Tigers (74-88)