Clubs with real firepower (and some without)
The Braves have 2021's most fearsome lineup. The Pirates, not so much....
The Atlanta Braves enter the 2021 season with no offensive worries — none at all.
The Braves paced the majors last year in bases per out (BPO) and several other statistical categories, including hits, doubles, runs batted in, on-base percentage, and slugging average. They swept to the National League East title and fell just one win short of making the World Series.
All of their big guns will be back this year, led by Freddie Freeman, last season’s Most Valuable Player. Freeman posted a BPO of 1.272 in 2020, which normally would be good enough to lead the league, though it put him second to the Nationals’ Juan Soto (1.505) over the truncated 60-game schedule.
But Freeman beat Soto — and everybody else in the majors — in a separate measure called “base surplus.” The Atlanta first baseman piled up 187 bases and made 147 outs last year. The typical batter who made the same number of outs would have reached only 104 bases, giving Freeman a surplus of 83 bases.
How do we know that? It’s simple math. Just take the BPO for all big-league batters last year (.707) and multiply it by a player’s number of outs. That’s .707 x 147 in Freeman’s case, which yields the expectation of 104 bases. Subtract that figure from his actual total of 187, and you have the surplus of 83 bases.
But Freeman wasn’t alone. The Braves had two other players among the eight big leaguers who posted the largest base surpluses last year. Outfielder Marcell Ozuna finished third with a surplus of 74 (trailing only Freeman’s 83 and Soto’s 82), and Ronald Acuna Jr. was eighth with 55.
That kind of firepower is why the Braves are the consensus choice to win the NL East again in 2021, though my own system (based largely on historical trends) deviates by picking the Nationals.
Below is a look at the clubs that migrated to the two extremes of base production last season. We’ll start with the five teams that ran up the biggest surpluses in 2020, followed by the five that suffered the largest deficits.
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1. Braves
BPO (2020): .825
Bases: 1,294
Base surplus: 185
HR (and rank): 103 (2)
BA (and rank): .268 (2)
Notes: Freeman, Ozuna, and Acuna piled up a collective surplus of 212 bases, which outperformed every club in the majors, including their own. If you add up everybody else on Atlanta’s roster, you get a deficit of 27 bases, yielding the team’s overall surplus of 185. That’s how important those three guys are.
2. Dodgers
BPO (2020): .811
Bases: 1,288
Base surplus: 165
HR (and rank): 118 (1)
BA (and rank): .256 (11)
Notes: World Series champion Los Angeles finished 20 bases behind Atlanta last year, though its batting order was a bit more balanced. Four Dodgers had base surpluses of 20 or better, led by Mookie Betts at plus-47 and Corey Seager at plus-34.
3. Padres
BPO (2020): .798
Bases: 1,231
Base surplus: 141
HR (and rank): 95 (4)
BA (and rank): .257 (8)
Notes: The resurgent Padres, who secured their first playoff spot in 14 years, were led by 21-year-old shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., who accumulated a surplus of 50 bases. Close behind were Manny Machado at plus-44 and Wil Myers at plus-42. This trio had a collective surplus of 136 bases. The rest of San Diego’s lineup was plus-five.
4. Mets
BPO (2020): .778
Bases: 1,205
Base surplus: 110
HR (and rank): 86 (9)
BA (and rank): .272 (1)
Notes: They aren’t big names, but Dominic Smith (plus-42), Michael Conforto (plus-35), and Brandon Nimmo (plus-33) combined to outperform three typical players by 110 bases. That precisely matched the total for the Mets as a whole.
5. Yankees
BPO (2020): .778
Bases: 1,176
Base surplus: 107
HR (and rank): 94 (5)
BA (and rank): .247 (14)
Notes: Only three Yankees made enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, and they all finished with nice base surpluses: DJ LeMahieu (plus-49), Luke Voit (plus-39), and Aaron Hicks (plus-20). Their total of 108 was one better than the sum of 107 for the entire club.
26. Indians
BPO (2020): .656
Bases: 1,040
Base deficit: 81
HR (and rank): 59 (27)
BA (and rank): .228 (23)
Notes: We now move to the bottom five, and you’ll notice that the entry for base surplus has been replaced with one for “base deficit.” The Indians had one shining star last year, third baseman Jose Ramirez, who led the American League with a surplus of 64 bases. The rest of the club was minus-145.
27. Mariners
BPO (2020): .651
Bases: 1,015
Base deficit: 88
HR (and rank): 60 (25)
BA (and rank): .226 (24)
Notes: Kyle Seager (plus-22) and Kyle Lewis (plus-18) did their best to stem the tide in Seattle, but the rest of the Mariners washed out with a collective deficit of 128 bases. That left the club as a whole at minus-88.
28. Tigers
BPO (2020): .637
Bases: 951
Base deficit: 105
HR (and rank): 62 (23)
BA (and rank): .245 (15)
Notes: The Tigers finished in the middle of the pack for batting average — 15th of 30 clubs — but they found it difficult to get on base in other ways. No other club drew fewer walks than Detroit’s average of 2.53 per game. (The big-league average was 3.38.)
29. Rangers
BPO (2020): .609
Bases: 964
Base deficit: 155
HR (and rank): 62 (23)
BA (and rank): .217 (29)
Notes: The three Rangers who played most often — the only three with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title — all finished with base deficits. If your top batters are mired in minus territory, your club is doomed. That’s why Texas ran up the worst base shortfall in the American League.
30. Pirates
BPO (2020): .576
Bases: 906
Base deficit: 207
HR (and rank): 59 (27)
BA (and rank): .220 (27)
Notes: Colin Moran finished with a surplus of four bases. So what? He was the only Pittsburgh regular in positive territory. Here are a few others: Josh Bell (minus-13), Bryan Reynolds (minus-19), Adam Frazier (minus-21), and Erik Gonzalez (minus-28). Is it any wonder that Pittsburgh ended up with the worst record in the majors?