The 2021 National League East race — as far as fans of the New York Mets are concerned — was wrapped up on January 7. Their team acquired superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor from the Cleveland Indians on that date, supposedly locking up the divisional crown.
I’m not convinced.
I issued my 2021 predictions for the American League on the past three Tuesdays — click here for the East, Central, and West — and I’m now turning to the NL East. My system is admittedly an unusual one. I’m not interested in trades, free agents, or injury rehabilitation. My focus is solely on history.
My computer program has compared each club’s record from 2018 through 2020 against the corresponding three-year marks for every team that took the diamond since the advent of free agency in 1976. It searched for evidence of improvement or decline in current clubs, matching them with similar trends from the past. (Click here for details.)
The fuel for my formula is team score (TS), which uses a 100-point scale to assess a club’s win-loss record, postseason performance, offensive firepower, and skill in pitching and defense. Scores can be compared for teams that played in different seasons, indicating their relative strength. (Click here to learn more about TS.)
And that’s where the Mets have a problem. Their recent record has been uninspiring. They flopped in 2018, showed some promise a year later, then regressed over 2020’s truncated schedule. Here are their win-loss marks, winning percentages, and team scores:
2018: 77-85, .475, TS 39.758
2019: 86-76, .531, TS 50.595
2020: 26-34, .433, TS 38.523
Who does that record remind you of? My computer suggests the Philadelphia Phillies, who followed a hopeful 1986 season with a 1-8 start in 1987 that left them sadly off the pace in the NL East. Here is the three-year line for those Phillies:
1985: 75-87, .463, TS 39.410
1986: 86-75, .534, TS 50.301
1987: 80-82, .494, TS 38.415
The key question, of course, is what happened to those Phillies in 1988, which might offer a clue about 2021 for their statistical twins, the current Mets.
Philadelphia wasn’t as active in the trade market — it didn’t acquire anybody close to Lindor’s skill — and the results were abysmal. The Phillies finished 65-96 in 1988, falling 35.5 games off the divisional pace set by — yes — the Mets. They wouldn’t return to the playoffs until 1993.
Not a promising sign, all in all. But I cast a broader net than that. I identified the five closest matches for each current club, then generated a weighted average of their records in subsequent seasons, yielding predictions for the years ahead. (The closest match naturally received the greatest weight.)
The outlook for the Mets is decidedly mixed. Three of their doppelgangers don’t offer much hope, as the 1987 Phillies, 1992 Rangers, and 1992 Tigers all struggled in subsequent seasons. The latter wouldn’t make their next playoff appearance until 2006.
But the other two matches for the 2020 Mets did very well indeed. The 2011 Athletics qualified for the playoffs in each of the following three years, and the 1999 Cardinals ripped off six playoff appearances in the next seven seasons.
What does all this mean for the NL East in 2021? Let’s start with last year’s standings. You’ll see each team’s win-loss record, followed by the name and year of its closest match and the W-L and TS for that club. Any ties in these standings (or those below) are broken by team score:
Braves, 35-25, Angels 2009 (97-65, TS 61.875)
Marlins, 31-29, Marlins 2000 (79-82, TS 38.984)
Phillies, 28-32, Marlins 2002 (79-83, TS 41.471)
Mets, 26-34, Phillies 1987 (80-82, TS 38.415)
Nationals, 26-34, Expos 1995 (66-78, TS 37.381)
If we examine the five closest matches for each club, it appears that the Nationals will bounce back from their mini-slump. Washington won the World Series in 2019, then fell to last place in the division in 2020. But history suggests that it will win the NL East in 2021.
The Mets, despite the addition of Lindor, are predicted to finish no better than a second-place tie with the Atlanta Braves. I’ve used TS to break their deadlock, a move that actually drops the Mets to third.
Here are the projected NL East standings for 2021:
Nationals, 87-75
Braves, 83-79
Mets, 83-79
Marlins, 79-83
Phillies, 77-85
Watch out for the Marlins, who are putting together a good young team in Miami. My computer envisions them tying the Braves for the 2022 divisional crown (though losing out on TS), with the Mets again in third:
Braves, 87-75
Marlins, 87-75
Mets, 81-81
Nationals, 76-86
Phillies, 74-88
And here is the 2023 forecast, based on historical trends. It appears that an NL East pennant will be flying in Miami, with the Mets stuck in third and the Nationals falling back to last place:
Marlins, 90-72
Braves, 87-75
Mets, 84-78
Phillies, 75-87
Nationals, 72-90
I’m said it on previous Tuesdays: This is an unusual way to predict the future, and I make no guarantees. Let’s check back at the end of the year to see which force is more powerful — history or free agency.
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Atlanta Braves
2020 record: 35-25
2020 TS: 61.310; TS rank: 7 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Angels 2009 (97-65, TS 61.875); 2. Expos 1982 (86-76, TS 60.371); 3. Blue Jays 1990 (86-76, TS 60.794); 4. Astros 1981 (61-49, TS 61.552); 5. Blue Jays 1991 (91-71, TS 64.362)
What happened to top two matches: The Angels made their third straight playoff appearance in 2009, then fell off the face of the earth. They have qualified for the postseason only once in the 11 seasons since then. The Expos hovered around .500 for several years after 1982, but never won their division.
2021 prediction: 83-79, TS 50.187 (10 of 30)
2022 prediction: 87-75, TS 57.218 (5 of 30)
2023 prediction: 87-75, TS 58.004 (5 of 30)
Miami Marlins
2020 record: 31-29
2020 TS: 38.599; TS rank: 18 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Marlins 2000 (79-82, TS 38.984); 2. Blue Jays 1982 (78-84, TS 40.416); 3. Cubs 1982 (73-89, TS 33.634); 4. Expos 1977 (75-87, TS 38.434); 5. Phillies 1998 (75-87, TS 36.401)
What happened to top two matches: Good things lay ahead for the Marlins after their flirtation with .500 in 2000. They went on to win the World Series just three years later, making their last postseason bow until 2020. The 1982 Blue Jays were also three years away from success. They would fall just one win short of making the World Series in 1985.
2021 prediction: 79-83, TS 44.006 (19 of 30)
2022 prediction: 87-75, TS 54.279 (10 of 30)
2023 prediction: 90-72, TS 62.597 (2 of 30)
New York Mets
2020 record: 26-34
2020 TS: 38.523; TS rank: 19 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Phillies 1987 (80-82, TS 38.415); 2. Athletics 2011 (74-88, TS 38.359); 3. Cardinals 1999 (75-86, TS 40.119); 4. Rangers 1992 (77-85, TS 38.071); 5. Tigers 1992 (75-87, TS 40.468)
What happened to top two matches: The five seasons after 1987 were unhappily similar for the Phillies, all resulting in sub-.500 records. But the Athletics did considerably better, winning a pair of AL West crowns in the two years following 2011, then tacking on a wild-card bid in 2014.
2021 prediction: 83-79, TS 47.799 (12 of 30)
2022 prediction: 81-81, TS 43.745 (17 of 30)
2023 prediction: 84-78, TS 49.233 (13 of 30)
Philadelphia Phillies
2020 record: 28-32
2020 TS: 41.279; TS rank: 17 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Marlins 2002 (79-83, TS 41.471); 2. Indians 1982 (78-84, TS 41.659); 3. Marlins 2017 (77-85, TS 40.779); 4. Indians 1980 (79-81, TS 41.022); 5. Athletics 1996 (78-84, TS 39.747)
What happened to top two matches: The omens are decidedly mixed. The Marlins won a world title in 2003, just one year after finishing four games below .500. But the Indians plummeted to last place in 1983 and stayed below .500 in nine of the 10 seasons that followed.
2021 prediction: 77-85, TS 42.978 (21 of 30)
2022 prediction: 74-88, TS 37.613 (23 of 30)
2023 prediction: 75-87, TS 36.863 (27 of 30)
Washington Nationals
2020 record: 26-34
2020 TS: 36.489; TS rank: 23 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Expos 1995 (66-78, TS 37.381); 2. Giants 2013 (76-86, TS 37.973); 3. Royals 2016 (81-81, TS 38.442); 4. Rockies 2008 (74-88, TS 38.931); 5. White Sox 1984 (74-88, TS 36.729)
What happened to top two matches: The Expos rebounded nicely in 1996 with 88 wins, good for second place in the NL East. But, sadly, they fell short of the wild-card slot. The Giants did even better, winning the World Series in 2014, just a year after finishing third in the NL West with only 76 victories.
2021 prediction: 87-75, TS 57.608 (7 of 30)
2022 prediction: 76-86, TS 42.185 (20 of 30)
2023 prediction: 72-90, TS 38.273 (25 of 30)