Billy Wagner is slowly making his way to Cooperstown.
The 16-year relief pitcher for five big-league clubs, primarily the Houston Astros and New York Mets, was named on only 10.5 percent of the Hall of Fame’s ballots in 2016, the year he became eligible for consideration. But he gradually gained momentum, passing the 50-50 mark in 2022 and climbing to 68.1 percent this year.
That leaves Wagner only 6.9 percentage points short of the 75-percent induction threshold, with two years of eligibility remaining. It seems likely that he’ll be a member of the hall’s class of 2024.
Such an honor would only be fitting, since Wagner ranks as the best left-handed reliever of the entire Modern Era, the period from 1961 through 2022.
I analyzed the records of all 156 lefties who relieved in at least 324 regular-season games during the 62-season span. My formula assessed their performances in 10 statistical categories, measuring such qualities as longevity and overall excellence. (I took each pitcher’s complete record into account, including any starting appearances he might have made.)
The formula for relievers is similar to the one I used the past two Thursdays for starting pitchers — you can see it here — albeit with three changes:
The ratio of wins above replacement (WAR) is calculated per 60 innings for relievers, as opposed to 200 innings for starters.
Total games relieved (GR) are substituted for games started.
Saves (SV) are totaled, instead of wins.
The formula orders all contestants from top to bottom, then assigns a score of 1,000 points to the frontrunner at a given position (in this case, Wagner) and zero points to the tailender. The scores for all other pitchers are determined by their relative performances in the 10 categories.
Wagner currently ranks sixth on baseball’s all-time list with 422 saves, which he accumulated between 1995 and 2010. Only one of the relievers ahead of him, John Franco, was a lefty. Franco needed 21 seasons with three clubs (mostly the Mets and Cincinnati Reds) to pile up 424 saves, just two ahead of Wagner’s total.
But Wagner emerged with the overall lead in today’s rankings, largely because he outpointed all other left-handed relievers throughout the Modern Era in three key categories. He posted the lowest earned run average (2.31 ERA), lowest ratio of bases allowed per out (.507 BPO), and highest ratio of WAR per 60 innings (1.85 WAR/60).
The runner-up among the era’s lefty relievers is Aroldis Chapman, who has pitched for five clubs since 2010, most notably with the Reds and New York Yankees. Chapman is currently active with the Texas Rangers, though his stats from the incomplete 2023 season are not included in his totals.
Rounding out the top five are Franco, Jesse Orosco (24 years with the Mets, Baltimore Orioles, and seven other teams), and John Hiller (15 seasons solely with the Detroit Tigers). It should be noted that these rankings do not include San Diego’s Josh Hader, whom I ranked earlier this summer as the best left-handed reliever in baseball today. Hader began the 2023 season with a career total of 288 games in relief, 36 below the minimum threshold.
This is the 12th story in my weekly series about the Modern Era’s top players. Follow these links to previous rankings of catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, left fielders, center fielders, right fielders, designated hitters, left-handed starting pitchers, and right-handed starters.
Statistical breakdowns for the era’s top five left-handed relief pitchers can be found below, followed by a list of the subsequent 15.
Subscribe — free — to Baseball’s Best (and Worst)
A new installment will arrive in your email each weekday morning
1. Billy Wagner (1995-2010)
Score: 1,000 points
WAR: 27.8 total, 1.9 per 60 IP
Averages: 2.31 ERA, .187 BA, .296 SLG, .507 BPO
Strikeouts: 1,196 total, 11.9 per 9 IP
Totals: 853 GR, 422 SV
Notes: It comes as a surprise that Wagner never led the National League in saves. The closest he got was in 2006, when his total of 40 put him second to Trevor Hoffman’s 46. Yet he was consistently dependable as a closer, amassing at least 30 saves in nine different seasons. Wagner twice finished among the top six vote-getters for the Cy Young Award.
2. Aroldis Chapman (2010-2022)
Score: 982 points
WAR: 19.1 total, 1.8 per 60 IP
Averages: 2.48 ERA, .164 BA, .255 SLG, .514 BPO
Strikeouts: 1,045 total, 14.7 per 9 IP
Totals: 667 GR, 315 SV
Notes: Chapman reached triple digits in strikeouts every year from 2012 through 2015, though he didn’t pitch more than 72 innings for the Reds in any of those seasons. His career rate of 14.7 strikeouts per nine innings is easily the best for any lefty reliever, with Wagner a distant second at 11.9.
3. John Franco (1984-2005)
Score: 726 points
WAR: 23.6 total, 1.1 per 60 IP
Averages: 2.89 ERA, .249 BA, .343 SLG, .608 BPO
Strikeouts: 975 total, 7.0 per 9 IP
Totals: 1,119 GR, 424 SV
Notes: Franco topped the National League in saves three times — in 1988 for the Reds, in 1990 and 1994 for the Mets. He recorded a minimum of 30 saves in eight separate seasons between 1987 and 1998. He is among four lefties who have relieved in more than 1,000 big-league games.
4. Jesse Orosco (1979-2003)
Score: 715 points
WAR: 22.9 total, 1.1 per 60 IP
Averages: 3.16 ERA, .223 BA, .335 SLG, .624 BPO
Strikeouts: 1,179 total, 8.2 per 9 IP
Totals: 1,248 GR, 144 SV
Notes: Orosco was a workhouse out of the bullpen. He rarely pitched as a closer, as evidenced by his relatively small save total. He reached double digits in saves only five times in his 24-year career. But nobody was more durable or dependable. Orosco is the only pitcher in big-league history to work in more than 1,200 games.
5. John Hiller (1965-1980)
Score: 646 points
WAR: 31.1 total, 1.5 per 60 IP
Averages: 2.83 ERA, .229 BA, .341 SLG, .609 BPO
Strikeouts: 1,036 total, 7.5 per 9 IP
Totals: 502 GR, 125 SV
Notes: The other relievers in the top five seemed to float from team to team, but Hiller was remarkably stable. He pitched 545 games in his career (43 starts, 502 relief appearances), all for the Tigers. He finished fourth in balloting for the American League’s Most Valuable Player Award in 1973, when he led the league with 38 saves.
Next 15
6. Randy Myers (1985-1998)
7. Sparky Lyle (1967-1982)
8. Tug McGraw (1965-1984)
9. B.J. Ryan (1999-2009)
10. Wilbur Wood (1961-1978)
11. Dan Plesac (1986-2003)
12. Dave Righetti (1979-1995)
13. Sean Doolittle (2012-2022)
14. Ron Perranoski (1961-1973)
15. Gary Lavelle (1974-1987)
16. Tony Watson (2011-2021)
17. Zack Britton (2011-2022)
18. Jim Brewer (1961-1976)
19. Matt Thornton (2004-2016)
20. Brian Fuentes (2001-2012)