The previous installment of Baseball’s Best (and Worst) had a hopeful tone. It focused on clubs since 1995 that played terrible ball in April, yet rallied in the subsequent five months to qualify for the playoffs. One even made the World Series.
Today’s entry gives you the flip side.
Most teams that endure awful opening months, I’m sorry to say, never get much better. A total of 129 clubs played sub-.400 ball during any April from 1996 to 2019. Only 21 finished the year with winning percentages above .500, and just eight of those squads actually made the playoffs.
If your favorite team opened the 2021 season with a rough weekend, don’t worry. It’s way too soon to panic. But if it continues its losing ways for the rest of the month, history suggests that you’re headed for an unrewarding year.
Consider the following examples. The nine clubs below, listed in chronological order, suffered the worst Aprils during the 1996-2019 span. They were the only nine teams in that 24-year span to end the first month with winning percentages below .250. (You’ll see their win-loss records and percentages, along with the names of players whose poor performances certainly didn’t help.)
But wait, you say. Weren’t these nine slow starters able to turn things around after their horrible starts?
They certainly were not. Eight finished in last place in their divisions, and five found themselves at least 30 games out of first place at the end. Read the unhappy news for yourself.
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1997 Chicago Cubs
Record in April: 6-19 (.240)
Record after April: 62-75 (.453)
Season record: 68-94 (.420)
Season finish: Fifth place in NL Central, 16 games out
Year to forget: Right fielder Sammy Sosa would enter baseball history a year later, swatting 66 homers and winning 1998’s Most Valuable Player Award. But he led the National League in only one category in 1997, striking out 174 times.
2003 Detroit Tigers
Record in April: 3-21 (.125)
Record after April: 40-98 (.290)
Season record: 43-119 (.265)
Season finish: Fifth place in AL Central, 47 games out
Year to forget: Starter Mike Maroth pulled a rare feat in 2003, becoming a 20-game loser. He fashioned a 9-21 record with a 5.73 ERA. He also gave up 34 home runs, the most by any pitcher in the American League.
2004 Montreal Expos
Record in April: 5-19 (.208)
Record after April: 62-76 (.449)
Season record: 67-95 (.414)
Season finish: Fifth place in NL East, 29 games out
Year to forget: The No. 2 starter on the Expos’ staff, Zach Day, finished with a disappointing 5-10 record. He walked almost as many batters (45) as he struck out (61).
2006 Kansas City Royals
Record in April: 5-17 (.227)
Record after April: 57-83 (.407)
Season record: 62-100 (.383)
Season finish: Fifth place in AL Central, 34 games out
Year to forget: Shortstop Angel Berroa batted only .234, the lowest average for any Kansas City regular, and he grounded into 21 double plays. Berroa also committed 18 errors in the field, four more than any other Royal.
2009 Washington Nationals
Record in April: 5-16 (.238)
Record after April: 54-87 (.383)
Season record: 59-103 (.364)
Season finish: Fifth place in NL East, 34 games out
Year to forget: There was no denying the speed of right fielder Elijah Dukes, but he was unable to channel it productively on the basepaths. Dukes stole only three bases in 2009, while getting caught 10 times. His steal rate was an abysmal 23%.
2010 Baltimore Orioles
Record in April: 5-18 (.217)
Record after April: 61-78 (.439)
Season record: 66-96 (.407)
Season finish: Fifth place in AL East, 30 games out
Year to forget: Starter Kevin Millwood lost four times as many games as he won, finishing with a 4-16 mark and a 5.10 ERA. Millwood was the only pitcher in the American League to give up at least 30 homers, 60 walks, and 200 hits.
2015 Milwaukee Brewers
Record in April: 5-17 (.227)
Record after April: 63-77 (.450)
Season record: 68-94 (.420)
Season finish: Fourth place in NL Central, 32 games out
Year to forget: The ERA for starter Kyle Lohse ballooned to 5.85 in 2015 from the previous season’s respectable 3.54. Lohse yielded 29 home runs and wrapped up the year with a 5-13 record.
2016 Atlanta Braves
Record in April: 5-18 (.217)
Record after April: 63-75 (.457)
Season record: 68-93 (.422)
Season finish: Fifth place in NL East, 26.5 games out
Year to forget: Third baseman Adonis Garcia hit a decent .273, but he coaxed only 24 walks from opposing pitchers, resulting in a mediocre .311 on-base average. Garcia also committed 18 errors in the field, the most for any Atlanta player.
2018 Cincinnati Reds
Record in April: 7-22 (.241)
Record after April: 60-73 (.451)
Season record: 67-95 (.414)
Season finish: Fifth place in NL Central, 28.5 games out
Year to forget: Almost everything went wrong for veteran starter Homer Bailey in 2018. He lost his first five decisions, finally notched a win in mid-May, then lost nine more. His record for the year: one win, 14 losses, and an earned run average of 6.09.