Laggards in the expansion derby
These 10 markets rank 21st to 30th in the hunt for new baseball clubs
We’re making a bit of progress in our examination of potential candidates for Major League Baseball’s next round of expansion.
You might recall that I drew up a list of 37 American, Canadian, Caribbean, and Mexican markets that might be interested in joining the majors, whenever Rob Manfred gives the go-ahead for the addition of two new clubs.
And then I developed a formula to rank these contenders from most to least desirable. (Click here for details.)
We disposed of the candidates at the very bottom of the rankings last Wednesday, making it possible for us to move up the ladder today.
Our focus is on the markets between 21st and 30th place. Are they likely to be granted MLB franchises? Probably not, though it must be conceded that they’re more plausible than the cities we analyzed a week ago.
Look below for rundowns of today’s 10 contenders. Each summary includes a market’s expansion score (on a 100-point scale); population; current level in organized baseball; number of teams in the National Basketball Association, National Football League, and National Hockey League; status in Major League Soccer (whose season is most directly competitive with that of baseball); the closest existing MLB city (assuming that the Oakland Athletics move to Las Vegas); and the number of existing markets within 200 air miles.
We’ll look at the top 20 contenders on the next two Wednesdays.
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21. Richmond
Expansion score: 60.22 points
Metro population: 1,339,182
Current baseball level: AA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 0
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Washington, 99 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 2
Bottom line: Virginia is a strange case. Its two major markets (Virginia Beach and Richmond) are among the five largest U.S. metros without big-league franchises in any sport. So why wouldn’t baseball take a chance on Richmond? It isn’t big enough, for one thing, and it’s also too close to the existing Nationals in Washington.
22. Ottawa
Expansion score: 60.03 points
Metro population: 1,488,307
Current baseball level: None
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 1
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Toronto, 219 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 0
Bottom line: Ottawa is larger than most people think, it has hosted minor-league clubs in the past, and (of course) it is Canada’s capital. Those are positive points, yet they aren’t sufficient to tip the balance. If the majors add a Canadian franchise, they’ll pick a market of much greater size.
23. Louisville
Expansion score: 60.01 points
Metro population: 1,284,553
Current baseball level: AAA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 0
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Cincinnati, 93 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 1
Bottom line: Louisville had its shot in 1964, when Charlie Finley tried to transfer the Kansas City Athletics there. The American League blocked the move, and Finley turned his sights to Oakland. Minor-league ball has generally done well in Louisville, though a big-league club is highly unlikely.
24. Birmingham
Expansion score: 58.99 points
Metro population: 1,116,857
Current baseball level: AA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 0
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Atlanta, 144 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 1
Bottom line: If most people think of Birmingham as a sports city, they associate it with football. Its baseball pedigree is not particularly impressive. Local population and income levels are also far below what Major League Baseball is looking for.
25. Hartford
Expansion score: 57.89 points
Metro population: 1,221,725
Current baseball level: AA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 0
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Boston, 91 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 3
Bottom line: Most New Englanders are devoted to the Boston Red Sox, and southwestern Connecticut contains thousands of supporters of the New York Yankees. Could a new franchise in relatively tiny Hartford win the hearts of these dedicated fans? Not easily.
26. San Jose
Expansion score: 56.91 points
Metro population: 1,938,524
Current baseball level: A
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 1
MLS team: Yes
Closest MLB market: San Francisco, 27 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 1
Bottom line: The Athletics have one foot out the door in Oakland, seemingly opening the door for an expansion replacement in northern California. The affluent San Jose market would be the obvious location, though the San Francisco Giants almost certainly would block such an incursion.
27. Rochester
Expansion score: 56.58 points
Metro population: 1,081,152
Current baseball level: AAA
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 0
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Toronto, 98 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 1
Bottom line: Rochester is located about 70 miles east of Buffalo (which was 32nd in last week’s portion of the rankings). The two markets are of similar size, so why does Rochester rate a bit better in the expansion standings? Buffalo already has two big-league teams in other sports, while baseball would have Rochester to itself. But the population, alas, is too small.
28. Providence
Expansion score: 55.39 points
Metro population: 1,673,802
Current baseball level: None
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 0
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Boston, 43 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 2
Bottom line: The Providence metro is slightly larger than Milwaukee. The latter is quite successful at the box office, so why not put an expansion club in Rhode Island? The obvious drawback is the proximity of Boston, which is less than an hour’s drive if the traffic is light.
29. Grand Rapids
Expansion score: 53.09 points
Metro population: 1,094,198
Current baseball level: A
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 0
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: Milwaukee, 123 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 3
Bottom line: The second-largest city in Michigan has demonstrated a true affinity for minor-league baseball, and its economy has been remarkably resilient in recent decades. But Grand Rapids lacks two things — sufficient size and adequate distance from nearby teams in Detroit and Chicago.
30. Fresno
Expansion score: 52.10 points
Metro population: 1,015,190
Current baseball level: A
NBA/NFL/NHL teams: 0
MLS team: No
Closest MLB market: San Francisco, 146 air miles
MLB markets within 200 air miles: 1
Bottom line: Fifty-five U.S. metropolitan areas have more than 1 million residents, with Fresno being the smallest market on that list. It recently topped the million mark, now sitting about 15,000 people above. That population, needless to say, is too low to support an MLB franchise.