The Houston Astros lost one of their stars, George Springer, to free agency last week, a terrible blow to their hopes of regaining their championship stride.
My computer doesn’t care.
I began issuing 2021 predictions for the six major-league divisions two Tuesdays ago, starting with the American League East. Today’s subject is the AL West.
The Astros dominated the West from 2017 to 2019 before slipping to second place in 2020’s truncated season. Conventional wisdom has already pegged them as the favorite to reclaim the divisional title in 2021, despite Springer’s departure.
But my forecasts aren’t predicated on the movement of free agents, the hiring of new managers, or changes in pitching staffs and batting orders. They’re based on the flow of history.
My program compares each team’s record during the past three seasons (2018-2020) against the corresponding stats for every club that played during the era of free agency, which began in 1976. (Click here to learn more.)
The idea is to find parallels from the past that might offer hints about the future. It’s surprising how frequently current clubs follow the tracks of similar teams that took the field years — or even decades — ago.
And what does history suggest? It believes that the Astros’ time has passed, Springer or no Springer. The Oakland Athletics, who won the AL West last year, are poised to reign in the years ahead.
Team score (TS) is the fuel for my formula. TS is calculated on a 100-point scale, based on a club’s win-loss record, postseason performance, offensive firepower, and skill in pitching and defense. Scores can be compared for teams that played in different seasons, providing a glimpse at their relative strength. (Click here for details.)
Oakland has played in Houston’s shadow the past three years, but the Athletics have been surprisingly good — and surprisingly consistent. Here is their recent record, including wins, losses, winning percentage, and team score:
2018: 97-65, .599, TS 60.810
2019: 97-65, .599, TS 60.881
2020: 36-24, .600, TS 61.371
My computer sifted through the three-year records of 1,198 clubs since 1976, looking for the closest matches. It was most impressed with the 2009 Los Angeles Angels, who had this run-up from 2007:
2007: 94-68, .580, TS 58.489
2008: 100-62, .617, TS 60.149
2009: 97-65, .599, TS 61.875
I followed the same process for every team in the American League West, yielding the matches below. Clubs are listed with their 2020 records, followed by their closest parallels. The relevant win-loss records and team scores for the latter clubs are shown in parentheses:
Athletics, 36-24, Angels 2009 (97-65, TS 61.875)
Astros, 29-31, Yankees 1982 (79-83, TS 44.909)
Mariners, 27-33, Marlins 2012 (69-93, TS 32.424)
Angels, 26-34, Rangers 2008 (79-83, TS 38.480)
Rangers, 22-38, Indians 1985 (60-102, TS 19.418)
If you read my previous installments on the AL East and AL Central, you know the drill by now.
I identified the five closest matches from the past for each current club, then averaged their future records for the subsequent three seasons. I gave the strongest weight to the closest match, then added the others in descending magnitude.
The results are very promising for Oakland. My computer envisions the Athletics winning the West in 2021 by three games over the Angels and Texas Rangers. (The tie between those two clubs is broken by their respective team scores.) The Astros will slide to fourth:
Athletics, 85-77
Angels, 82-80
Rangers, 82-80
Astros, 81-81
Mariners, 76-86
The path to dominance isn’t entirely clear. Oakland’s closest match — the 2009 Angels — actually stumbled below .500 in 2010 before rebounding in following seasons. That’s not a promising omen.
But this is better: Three of the five top matches for the 2020 Athletics — the 1977 Pirates, 1980 Brewers, and 1991 Blue Jays — soared to the World Series within two years. And the Pirates and Jays emerged as world champs.
That explains why my projected standings for 2022 show the Athletics improving by three wins, holding off a challenge by the resurgent Astros:
Athletics, 88-74
Astros, 86-76
Angels, 80-82
Mariners, 75-87
Rangers, 73-89
Records tend to regress toward .500 as we drift farther into the ether of the future, so the forecast for 2023 is presented here more for amusement than anything else. Yet it still shows the Athletics in first place, while the Rangers and Seattle Mariners continue to wallow at the bottom:
Athletics, 86-76
Angels, 85-77
Astros, 84-78
Rangers, 79-83
Mariners, 72-90
Take it for what you will. But the signs look to be very promising for the Athletics. They haven’t made a World Series appearance for three decades. Could 2021 finally be the year?
You can get a much closer look at my AL West predictions below.
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Houston Astros
2020 record: 29-31
2020 TS: 43.887; TS rank: 15 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Yankees 1982 (79-83, TS 44.909); 2. Cardinals 1983 (79-83, TS 43.342); 3. Blue Jays 1994 (55-60, TS 40.913); 4. White Sox 1995 (68-76, TS 42.677); 5. Phillies 2012 (81-81, TS 47.894)
What happened to top two matches: The Yankees bounced back from a subpar 1982, posting winning records the next six years. But they didn’t net a single playoff appearance during that span. The 1983 Cardinals improved in a hurry, posting 101 victories in 1985. Yet they failed to land a World Series title until 2006.
2021 prediction: 81-81, TS 46.839 (15 of 30)
2022 prediction: 86-76, TS 56.146 (7 of 30)
2023 prediction: 84-78, TS 49.638 (12 of 30)
Los Angeles Angels
2020 record: 26-34
2020 TS: 38.483; TS rank: 20 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Rangers 2008 (79-83, TS 38.480); 2. Giants 1977 (75-87, TS 38.318); 3. Indians 1978 (69-90, TS 36.150); 4. Indians 1990 (77-85, TS 37.792); 5. Mets 2012 (74-88, TS 38.216)
What happened to top two matches: The Rangers enjoyed an upswing after 2008. They climbed above .500 the following year, then won consecutive American League titles in 2010 and 2011. The 1977 Giants were a different story. San Francisco floundered for another decade before finally making the playoffs.
2021 prediction: 82-80, TS 44.404 (18 of 30)
2022 prediction: 80-82, TS 45.943 (14 of 30)
2023 prediction: 85-77, TS 53.307 (7 of 30)
Oakland Athletics
2020 record: 36-24
2020 TS: 61.371; TS rank: 6 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Angels 2009 (97-65, TS 61.875); 2. Expos 1982 (86-76, TS 60.371); 3. Pirates 1977 (96-66, TS 61.073); 4. Brewers 1980 (86-76, TS 59.597); 5. Blue Jays 1991 (91-71, TS 64.362)
What happened to top two matches: There are a couple of cautionary tales here. It took half a decade for the Angels to qualify for the playoffs again after 2009. The Expos would wait another 30 years after 1982 to return to the postseason as the Washington Nationals. Yet, as noted above, the other three matches offer considerable hope.
2021 prediction: 85-77, TS 50.782 (9 of 30)
2022 prediction: 88-74, TS 60.488 (3 of 30)
2023 prediction: 86-76, TS 51.797 (9 of 30)
Seattle Mariners
2020 record: 27-33
2020 TS: 32.025; TS rank: 24 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Marlins 2012 (69-93, TS 32.424); 2. Giants 1992 (72-90, TS 30.005); 3. Rangers 1988 (70-91, TS 33.393); 4. Astros 2010 (76-86, TS 31.729); 5. Cubs 2011 (71-91, TS 29.347)
What happened to top two matches: The Marlins would lose 100 games in 2013, then endure another six seasons with sub-.500 records. Their worst year in that span was 2019, with a 57-105 mark. The Giants soared to 103 wins in 1993, yet missed the playoffs. They plummeted below .500 the following three seasons.
2021 prediction: 76-86, TS 37.458 (25 of 30)
2022 prediction: 75-87, TS 37.376 (24 of 30)
2023 prediction: 72-90, TS 33.634 (29 of 30)
Texas Rangers
2020 record: 22-38
2020 TS: 20.335; TS rank: 29 of 30 MLB clubs
Five closest matches: 1. Indians 1985 (60-102, TS 19.418); 2. Indians 2012 (68-94, TS 21.658); 3. Reds 2003 (69-93, TS 21.928); 4. Mariners 1986 (67-95, TS 20.577); 5. Padres 2002 (66-96, TS 23.540)
What happened to top two matches: The Indians enjoyed a one-year bounce after their 1985 disaster. They climbed to 84-78 in 1986, then dived right back to a 101-loss season in 1987. The story of the 2012 Indians is more encouraging. They made the playoffs in 2013, eventually bound for an American League championship in 2016.
2021 prediction: 82-80, TS 43.925 (20 of 30)
2022 prediction: 73-89, TS 33.041 (27 of 30)
2023 prediction: 79-83, TS 43.236 (21 of 30)