AL Central’s hot and cold players
Cleveland returns several of the division’s most talented competitors
There are three reasons why it made sense for me to predict on Tuesday that the Cleveland Guardians will repeat as champions of the American League’s Central Division.
The first is the obvious fact that Cleveland was 11 games better than any of its four opponents in 2022, giving it a substantial head start for the upcoming season.
The second is that my prediction formula — powered by an analysis of 1,258 teams from the era of free agency — found the Guardians to be better positioned for 2023 than their divisional rivals.
And the third reason is that Cleveland’s roster includes all five players who registered the best performances in the AL Central a year ago — the five players who thereby (presumably) enter the season with the strongest sense of momentum.
I’m rolling out my divisional predictions on successive Tuesdays — the AL East last week, the AL Central three days ago — and I’m following up with a look at each division’s hottest and coldest players.
My measuring stick is overall base value (OBV). I won’t bother to repeat the definition, though you can click here if you’d like to learn more.
What follows is a closer look at the 10 hottest — and 10 coldest — players in the AL Central. If you’d like to see detailed team-by-team breakdowns of OBV, see Baseball’s Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook.
Subscribe — free — to Baseball’s Best (and Worst)
A new installment will arrive in your email each Tuesday and Friday morning
Best OBV in AL Central (2022)
Cleveland’s star third baseman, Jose Ramirez, led the AL Central with an overall base value of 113, which means he reached 113 more bases than the typical batter would have attained under the same circumstances.
Starting pitcher Shane Bieber finished as the divisional runner-up with an OBV of 85, which indicates that he allowed 85 fewer bases to opponents than the average pitcher would have surrendered in the same conditions.
Three more Guardians rounded out the divisional top five — second baseman Andres Gimenez (OBV of 75), closer Emmanuel Clase (74), and starting pitcher Triston McKenzie (71).
Two members of the Chicago White Sox came next in the standings. Starting pitcher Dylan Cease finished with an OBV of 66, followed by Jose Abreu at 55. But the latter is accompanied by an asterisk. Abreu left the Sox as a free agent over the winter, signing with the Houston Astros.
Here’s the divisional top 10:
1. Jose Ramirez, Guardians, 113
2. Shane Bieber, Guardians, 85
3. Andres Gimenez, Guardians, 75
4. Emmanuel Clase, Guardians, 74
5. Triston McKenzie, Guardians, 71
6. Dylan Cease, White Sox, 66
7. Jose Abreu, White Sox, 55
8. Carlos Correa, Twins, 53
9. Byron Buxton, Twins, 52
10. Steven Kwan, Guardians, 45
Baseball’s Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook
A complete rundown of 2022 stats — and a look ahead at the season to come
Worst OBV in AL Central (2022)
Last season was an unhappy one for Jonathan Schoop. The second baseman for the Detroit Tigers batted .202 and finished with the worst overall base value in the American League Central, minus-77.
Both runners-up for the division’s worst OBV played for the Kansas City Royals — starting pitcher Kris Bubic (minus-69) and infielder Nicky Lopez (minus-68).
At least three of the players in the bottom 10 (actually, the bottom 11 because of a tie) will be based in other divisions in 2023. The transients are catchers Austin Hedges (Cleveland to Pittsburgh) and Tucker Barnhart (Detroit to Chicago Cubs) and pitcher Elvin Rodriguez (Detroit to Tampa Bay).
Here are the AL Central’s bottom dwellers:
1. Jonathan Schoop, Tigers, -77
2. Kris Bubic, Royals, -69
3. Nicky Lopez, Royals, -68
4. Leury Garcia, White Sox, -67
5. Austin Hedges, Guardians, -60
6. Myles Straw, Guardians, -55
7. Tucker Barnhart, Tigers, -50
7. Daniel Lynch, Royals, -50
9. Jonathan Heasley, Royals, -47
10. Lucas Giolito, White Sox, -45
10. Elvin Rodriguez, Tigers, -45
Cooperstown at the Crossroads
Read about the Hall of Fame’s checkered history (and uncertain future)